Our MLB betting expert Jason Radowitz provides his best bets from the day’s Major League Baseball slate.
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MLB Regular Season Record: 59-41-2 = 59%
Postseason Record: 12-10 = 54.5%
Tuesday, October 27th
Blake Snell will get the ball in a must-win Game 6 for the Rays. It’s do or die time for the Rays. The pressure is on.
Snell struck out nine batters against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the World Series but still couldn’t finish five innings as he walked four and allowed two hits and two runs.
Snell has a 3.33 ERA on the postseason and has done well enough to help the Rays win games. The Rays are currently 3-2 in Snell starts this season.
The first time around the order, Snell dominates. But the second and third time around the order, things start to escalate. This will be something Snell will need to work on. He needs to give the Rays five shutout innings of baseball. And he has it in him as long as he limits walks. He’s allowed eight walks in his last 8.2 innings, which is basically a walk per nine innings. That’s not good enough.
On the other hand, Baseball America Rookie of the Year, Tony Gonsolin is slated to pitch Game 6 for the Dodgers. He hasn’t been good this season but it’s potentially due to his short leashes this postseason.
His manager, Dave Roberts suggested that Gonsolin will go deeper in this start and Gonsolin talked about changing his routine to give the Dodgers more innings and better performances.
Gonsolin started eight of nine games this season and has a 2.31 ERA. He allowed just two home runs and struck out about a batter per inning. In the postseason, he’s allowed eight runs in 7.2 innings of work. He’s allowed three home runs and seven walks, something that Gonsolin never did during the regular season.
It seems that Gonsolin has found himself again. He only allowed one home run and a walk in his first outing against the Rays, which was just 1.1 innings long. If the Dodgers let him get comfortable on the mound, Gonsolin should put up a fight and a much better performance than his recent outings.
Sunday, October 25th
The Dodgers and Rays are tied at two in the World Series. Clayton Kershaw thought he may get a chance to win the series for the Dodgers. Instead, he’ll have to get them in position to win in Game 6.
This is a legacy game for Kershaw. Kershaw went six innings and gave the Dodgers a quality start in his win in Game 1. Everyone talks about how bad Kershaw has been in the postseason.
Another quality outing from Kershaw would solidify his status as a top tier pitcher. Kershaw is projected to total 16.5 outs in this game. To get over on that total, he’ll need 16 outs and will need to complete 5.2 innings of work.
Again, Kershaw needed just 78 pitches in that first game against the Rays to complete six innings. The Dodgers would love to ride Kershaw as long as they can knowing how the bullpen has performed lately.
Kershaw will get through six innings tonight.
Saturday, October 24th
The Dodgers lead the Rays 2-1 in the World Series going into Game 4. It’s stupid to look ahead but the reality is, if the Dodgers win Game 4, they’ll have Clayton Kershaw on the mound for Game 5 with a big 3-1 lead and a chance to win the World Series.
The Rays offense has been a bit lackadaisical in the World Series. Really, this team never hit for much average. They’ve had stretches and innings where they’ve put together some hits and it’s worked out.
They’ll take on Julio Urias of the Dodgers. When you look at Urias’ stats, you’ll be scared. In four games, Urias has a 4-0 record with a .56 ERA.
He’s been terrific. But he’s not going deep. That means you’ll get around five innings from Urias and the rest will be bullpen work for the Dodgers.
As I’ve said in the past, if the Rays are going to win games, they’ll have to score four or more runs against the Dodgers.
That has been true in the first three games. The Dodgers have scored four or more runs in every World Series game so far.
The Rays are looking to tie up the series and win this game. They’ll get Urias, who as some would say, is “due.” Urias is allowing plenty of fly balls and getting a lower amount of grounders than we’re used to in the postseason.
There’s no guarantee the Rays win this game but if they do, they’ll have three or more runs on the scoreboard.
Friday, October 23rd
The World Series is tied at one a piece. It’s really looking like we’ll get seven games.
Anyway, we’ve got Charlie Morton of the Rays against Walker Buehler of the Dodgers.
Both of these pitchers have been fantastic in the postseason. Buehler has a postseason record of 1-0 with a 1.89 ERA while Morton has a 3-0 record with a .57 ERA.
Morton had nearly a five ERA in the regular season and has turned it on in three starts in the postseason. Morton has always had a solid strikeout rate and he’s done well in the postseason.
In the regular season, he pitched much better on the road than at home and that’s proving to be the case during this postseason run.
He’s struggled against righties this season. In the regular season, he allowed a .304 average and really started to his his production dip in the second and third times around the batting order.
The Dodgers have the best lineup in all of baseball. Let’s say Morton pitches anther gem of a performance. The Dodgers still get about four innings of relief pitching.
Morton will have to face a tough lineup of premier lefties and righties that can make a pitcher work like Mookie Betts and Justin Turner.
Cody Bellinger, for one, could be in for a big day. Bellinger limits strikeouts and hits hard against right-handed pitching throughout his career. His over/under on total bases is set at .5. All Bellinger needs is one hit but he can absolutely get an extra base hit off Morton or a right-handed relief pitcher, if the Rays dare.
I like the Dodgers to score four runs in this game. I also like Bellinger to be a factor in this game. If the Dodgers score four runs, Bellinger will be involved in the middle of the order.
Wednesday, October 21st
Most Dodgers batters haven’t faced Blake Snell, who will get the start in this one for the Rays, in their career. However, Mookie Betts, who played with the Boston Red Sox for many years, faced all of these Tampa Bay Rays pitchers plenty of times in the AL East.
Betts has had 27 plate appearances against Snell where he’s accumulated seven hits, with three being for extra base hits. Betts has four singles, two doubles and a home run against the left-hander along with three walks and just two strikeouts.
Snell is known for his strikeout percentage. His rate is high. This season he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings. However, Betts hasn’t had trouble against Snell when he comes to putting the ball in play.
Knowing Betts will lead off in this game for the Dodgers, I like seeing his total bases set at 1.5 at +120.
Betts will more than likely see five at-bats. If he goes 2-5, it’s a winner. If he hits a double, it’s a winner. If he hits a home run, it’s a winner.
Many people have Betts pegged as the MVP favorite after the first game. He’ll have to do more than just hit a single in this one to keep that MVP hype rolling.
Tuesday, October 20th
The Dodgers will take on the Rays to kick off the World Series in Texas. Globe Life Field is a pitcher friendly ballpark and now we’ll feature two of the premier pitchers in the league when it comes to strikeouts.
Kershaw averaged just under 10 strikeouts per nine innings this season and has struck out 23 batters in 19 innings in the postseason.
Kershaw’s last start wasn’t great. He allowed four runs on seven hits against the Braves, going five innings while striking out four.
The Braves, like the Rays, strike out plenty against lefties but that didn’t seem to matter against the Braves.
But the Rays are a different story. Mike Zunino and Brandon Lowe have struck out a postseason-leading 18 times each. Meanwhile, Willy Adames has struck out 17 times and although Randy Arzarena has been a stud this season, he’s been boom or bust, striking out 15 times in the postseason.
In the postseason, Kershaw is averaging 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. The feeling is that Kershaw pitches well enough to stick around through six innings. If he’s able to pitch six innings and get around the order at least twice, he should be able to achieve seven strikeouts.
Sunday, October 18th
Can we get back to .500 before the World Series? The postseason has been difficult.
Want to know why? Because it’s 10am EST on Sunday and we still don’t know the starter for the Dodgers.
I’ll take a stab at it. It’s either Tony Gonsolin or Julio Urias. And either starter works for me.
I’ll pick against either of them. Gonsolin was already rocked by the Braves in Game 2. That’s likely why the Dodgers are contemplating using someone else.
Gonsolin has a low ground ball rate and the Braves have done well against right-handers all season long in terms of batting average.
Julio Urias has done better for the Dodgers in this NLCS but he was forced to throw over 100 pitches in just five innings of work. He’s not going to be able to go deep in this game if he does start but the Braves strike out enough against lefties where he seems like the play.
But look. It’s Game 7 of the NLCS. Winner goes to the World Series. Pitchers will have short leashes and bullpen arms will be used as many times as needed to win this ball game.
I’d trust the Braves lineup more going into this game. The Braves have Ian Anderson starting Game 7 on regular rest which is absolutely helpful in this spot.
It’s impossible to pick a winner. It’s a coin flip. But the Braves need one less run than the Braves when looking at team totals. I’ll exploit that.
I’d even recommend taking Over 3 runs for the Braves on William Hill. It’s a push if the Braves score three runs. A win if you get four.
Saturday, October 17th
The MLB playoffs has been hard. We’ve been getting hit with bad beat after bad beat.
That’s kind of how Lance McCullers’ starts go. He’s a boom or bust pitcher who will take the mound for the Astros in Game 7 of the ALCS. He’ll pitch against a former Astros pitcher in Charlie Morton, who will try to ruin the Astros chance at winning four straight games to clinch a spot in the MLB World Series.
McCullers has thrown 11 innings in the postseason and has allowed 12 hits and five runs. However, he’s also struck out 16 and walked one. Walks had been a problem for him throughout the season and his career but he’s been able to limit them in the postseason.
He allowed four runs (one earned) in seven innings against the Rays in Game 2 and looked tremendous but still got the loss after two mistakes in that ball game that led to two home runs which were all the four runs he allowed.
Morton has gone 10 innings in the postseason with five innings in each start. Morton hasn’t finished six innings once yet this season and even though he pitched well in Game 2 against the Astros, he still had a short leash.
Morton struggled against righties throughout the season and the Astros have plenty of right-handed bats that can do damage. The Astros have all the momentum after winning three straight.
In a Game 7, there’s so much pressure. The Astros have been in this moment before. The lineup has been clutch before. The Rays lineup is in unfamiliar territory.
McCullers and Morton should be able to do their part as the pressure is more on the hitters than pitchers in these moments.
Game 2’s under in the first five innings cashed. It should also cash in Game 7.
Friday, October 16th
The Rays were up 3-0 in the ALCS. The Astros were hopeless. Until they won Game 5 and then won Game 6.
Now it’s 3-2 in the series and the Rays might feel the pressure.
You know how these pressure games go. Low scoring, big pitching match-ups. That’s how this one should go.
We’ve got Framber Valdez of the Astros and Blake Snell of the Rays pitching in Game 6 after already pitching in Game 1.
Valdez is a ground ball pitcher that struggles to get out of jams. However, his second and third time around an order, he starts to settle in and dominate. If we can get early success from Valdez, the under looks solid.
Blake Snell is the opposite of Valdez, but in a good way. Snell will allow many solo home runs and struggle as he gets deeper into a game. However, Snell buckles down when there’s runners on base and pitches well under pressure.
Valdez pitches well with no runners on base while Snell pitches better with runners on base. Either way, both pitchers have looked solid all postseason and throughout the regular season.
In a pressure spot like this, both pitchers will be ready and batters will struggle to get big hits. I love the under in this spot.
Thursday, October 15th
The Braves will send out Bryse Wilson, who is considered their fourth starter and wouldn’t be pitching in this series if the Braves had Mike Soroka.
Wilson struggled this season as he started two games and played in six. He struck out 8.62 per nine innings but walked over five batters per nine innings, which is really bad.
Wilson is a guy with just terrible numbers all around. If you combine last season with this season, Wilson has a high ERA, high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, high walk rate and won’t get many swinging strikes. Also, he lacks ground balls and allows a batting average of .348 with balls in play.
Lastly, lefties are hitting above .400 against the right-hander in Wilson. It’s a small sample size but after seeing what the Dodgers offense did to Kyle Wright, they can do the same to Wilson.
Plus the bullpen had to work 8.1 innings last night and have to be fatigued and tired.
We’re going in on the Dodgers offense tonight.
Wednesday, October 14th
The Braves strike out plenty against left-handed pitching and so far this postseason, Urias has faced 30 batters and struck out 11 of them. He’s feeling good in the postseason, allowing no earned runs in eight innings with those 11 strikeouts.
With the way the Dodgers bullpen has looked this postseason, the Dodgers will like to rely on Urias as long as possible until making the decision to get to the bullpen, down 2-0 in the series.
Urias struggles early in games but once he gets through the first time around the batting order, he settles in and gets into a groove.
If he’s able to go even five innings, Urias should be able to hit his strikeout total of four in this start as the Braves, again, strike out over 27 percent of the time against lefties in the last two seasons, which is a very high number in comparison.
Tuesday, October 13th
Pick: Dodgers (-120)
KERSHAW HAS BEEN SCRATCHED! STILL LIKE DODGERS AT -120 BUT NO LONGER OFFICIAL!
The Dodgers lost their first game of the series to the Braves, 5-1 after another bullpen blow up. The Braves have an advantage in the bullpens but certainly won’t have the advantage against Clayton Kershaw in this one.
Yes, Kershaw will get the start for the Dodgers going up against rookie pitcher Ian Anderson, who hasn’t allowed a run in a postseason game thus far.
Both pitchers get a high amount of ground balls and can rack up the strikeouts.
The difference is Anderson will walk a solid percentage of batters (although he hasn’t in the postseason) while Kershaw will limit walks.
However, Anderson doesn’t allow the long ball while Kershaw lets the long ball effect his performance.
Kershaw has pitched very well on the road this regular season, winning five of seven starts and limiting hitters to a very low batting average. Braves also strike out plenty against left-handed pitching.
On the flip side, the Dodgers have hit right-handed pitching very well this season and have the highest weighted opponent batting average on today’s slate.
Expect the Braves to chip away inning by inning and let Kershaw get to work. I’d project seven innings and would absolutely recommend Kershaw striking out 6.5 batters in this one.
Monday, October 12th
It’s Game one of the NLCS and both of these teams had a bit of a break going into this new series. Max Fried will take on Walker Buehler in a battle between two aces who have just been helping their teams win each and every five days.
Fried is coming off a poor start against the Marlins where he allowed four runs in four innings. Before that start, he hadn’t allowed four or more runs in a single game this season.
Fried gets a high amount of ground balls and limits home runs and that’s exactly what the Braves will look for out of Fried.
Meanwhile, Walker Buehler will pitch for the Dodgers. The right-hander doesn’t go deep in games, but he’ll go five innings if he can limit walks. Buehler has a high strikeout rate but will sometimes let the pitch count rise.
The Dodgers are currently 9-1 in Buehler’s 10 starts this season, through the postseason. The Braves are 12-1 in Fried’s starts this season, including the postseason.
These pitchers battle and keep runs off the board. Now that we’re seeing a 4.5 on the board in playoff action in the first five, it’s time to roll with it.
Sunday, October 11th
Blake Snell will get the start for the Rays against Framber Valdez of the Astros.
Snell hasn’t finished six innings in any start this season but has been incredible early in starts.
Through the first time around the order, Snell allowed a .140 average where he allowed one home run and 12 hits in 86 at bats. That changes the second time and third times around the order where he’s allowed an average of above .300 and allowed nine home runs.
Meanwhile, Framber Valdez struggles to get a feel early and then dominates as he gets deeper into games.
Valdez has allowed three home runs and 11 runs batted in along with 27 hits in the first time around the order. Valdez has allowed an on base percentage of .347 with a slugging percentage of .413 which are all much higher than his second and third times around the order.
The Rays have the higher weight opponent batting average and have hit lefties better this season compared to the Astros.
The expectation is that the Rays come out with some solid offense for Blake Snell early.
The other expectation is that the Astros get to Snell in the 4th and 5th innings and then take the lead as +200 underdogs.
After the Rays take the lead through three, I’d consider live betting the Astros to win the game.
Friday, October 9th
Pick: Yankees -.5 F5 (-105)
It’s do or die for the Yankees and Rays. Game 5 in the ALDS. Win or go home.
Gerrit Cole was signed by the Yankees in the offseason for this very moment. So far in the playoffs, Cole has pitched 13 innings and struck out 21 while allowing 12 hits, two walks and five runs. Those runs came mostly from home runs, which has been the one thing Cole has struggled with this season.
In those postseason starts though, the Yankees have scored a total of 21 runs in those two games to back Cole and help the Yankees win both of those starts.
On the other hand, Tyler Glasnow will pitch on four days rest. Glasnow has a 3.27 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP on five days rest. But on four days rest he has a 5.44 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.
The Yankees should pounce on Glasnow early in this game.
In the 2019 ALDS, Cole and Glasnow faced off in 2019 where Cole’s Astros won 6-1 after Glasnow allowed four runs in the first inning.
I’d bank on that happening again…
Thursday, October 8th
Pick: Marlins F5 (+115)
It’s not many times where you see my banker at plus money. Take advantage.
Sixto Sanchez will get the start against the Atlanta Braves after a five-inning shutout performance against the Cubs in his last start. Sanchez has a filthy fastball and used it very effectively in his last postseason start.
He faced the Braves twice this season and allowed four runs in two starts. One was a six inning shutout and the other was a four inning disaster.
With the Braves up 2-0 in the series, they’ll send out Kyle Wright who has been a disaster for most of the season. Before his last three quality starts to finish off the season, Wright was getting rocked and allowing plenty of home runs along with a very high percentage of walks.
He’s had better days compared to his starts against the Marlins this season. In two starts against the Marlins, Wright allowed eight runs on nine hits and eight walks. That’s 17 base runners on seven innings from the Marlins. If the Marlins continue that kind of explosion against Wright, it’ll be more than enough for Sixto Sanchez in the first five innings.
Wednesday, October 7th
Pick: Athletics F5 (-110)
It’s do or die for the Athletics. They’ll send out Jesus Luzardo who didn’t have the best start in his last outing against Chicago.
Luzardo has pitched against Houston twice earlier this season and had a 2.84 ERA in two starts with 12 strikeouts and three walks, while holding batters to a .200 average.
It was really solo home runs that got the best of Luzardo against the Astros.
In his last start against the White Sox, Luzardo allowed three runs on six hits with no walks and five strikeouts. During the day the has a 3.52 ERA with two wins in three starts and five games played.
The Astros will pitch Jose Urquidy who has struggled against right-handed batters. Righties are hitting .292 against Urquidy and he’s also not known for ground balls. He’ll allow plenty of fly balls and with the way balls are leaving the yard in Dodger Stadium, you can expect the same in this game.
The Athletics will likely have at least six right handers batting in this game and the lefties, like Matt Olson and Tommy LaStella smash right-handed pitching anyway.
Urquidy struggles through the second time of an order. Look for the A’s to exploit him in the 3rd, 4th and 5th inning to get this win.
Tuesday, October 6th
Pick: Astros F5 (-110)
The Houston Astros are ready to shock the world. They don’t need garbage cans or buzzers! After 16 hits in the first game and 10 runs, the Astros offense is clicking and they’ll get to face Sean Manaea of the Athletics.
Manaea went 4-3 in 11 starts with a 4.50 ERA and an FIP of 3.71. He’s been solid as of late but still allows plenty of hard contact and while he might get away with it at his home field in Oakland, in Los Angeles, balls are flying out.
Manaea actually last pitched in Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers and allowed three runs to the Dodgers. He’s now allowed six runs in his last 11.2 innings and has an ERA of 5.02 on the road.
Technically, it’s a home game for the Athletics but he’s pitching on the road, and this makes a big difference.
Framber Valdez will take the hill for the Astros. Valdez went 5-3 in the regular season with a 5-3 record and a 3.57 ERA. In the postseason, in relief, he went five innings and allowed no runs against the Twins.
In the regular season, Valdez helped the Astros win three straight games with him on the mound. In his last 18.1 innings, he’s allowed 11 hits and three walks with 24 strikeouts and just two runs.
He’s also dominated righties this season, which will likely be about 70 percent of the Athletics lineup.
In a pick-em, the Astros have the better pitching and more momentum with their hitting.
Monday, October 5th
The Yankees and Rays will start their ALDS series at Petco Park for the first game of the series. Gerrit Cole of the Yankees will face Blake Snell of the Rays.
Both of these pitchers struggled earlier in the season but have really rebounded to put together solid seasons.
In Cole’s September, he allowed three earned runs in four regular season starts and and then allowed two earned runs against the Indians in the playoffs but struck out 13 and walked none.
Cole has pitched seven innings in his last four starts and the reality is, the Yankees are going to need another seven inning performance from Cole because the rest of the starters for the Yankees aren’t as talented as Cole.
In a tight game, the Yankees will hand the ball to Cole to go at least seven innings. He can pitch beyond 100 pitches and do what needs to be done, which is keep the Yankees in the game.
The Rays will strikeout plenty and if Cole goes seven innings, he will absolutely finish with 10 strikeouts in this game. As long as he minimizes the walks, Cole should be on his way to another big time quality start.
For Cole to get 18.5 outs, he’ll need to go at least 6.1 innings. He’s gone seven in his last four starts and has gone 6.2 innings against the Rays earlier this season.
Friday, October 2nd
Pick: Cubs -.5 F5 (-130)
The Cubs are in a do-or-die situation. Either the Cubs win or they go home, at home.
Yes, the Cubs are playing their three-game series against the Marlins and already lost the first one in a best-of-three Wild Card series.
Yu Darvish will take the mound for the Cubs against Sixto Sanchez of the Marlins. It’s ace pitcher against rookie pitcher. Who would you take in this match-up?
Darvish hasn’t been great in the playoffs throughout his career. That’s a given but Darvish had his best season in the MLB this year, even though it was shortened to a third of his normal starts.
Darvish had high strikeouts and low walks while also limiting home runs. Meanwhile, Sanchez has done the same this season, just in less games, with less strikeouts and more walks and a high batting average of balls in play.
The Marlins will likely send out six righties and three lefties against Darvish. Darvish has been fantastic against righties all season and knowing that 67 percent of the lineup will be right-handed is key.
Sanchez hasn’t allowed many extra base hits but he’s coming off back-to-back performances where he allowed nine runs combined in seven innings to finish off the regular season. He allowed nearly 20 base runners in those two games.
It’s hard to rely on the Cubs bats but there’s plenty of left-handed power going up against Sanchez. Righties have actually hit Sanchez better this season with average. Therefore, the Cubs should have a well-balanced lineup that could get to Sanchez and throw him off his game.
Thursday, October 1st
There’s one game where I want to attack. However, both managers are currently playing chess and won’t announce their starters just yet.
It’s a 3pm EST match-up in a do-or-die, winner go home series. This is why starters haven’t been announced.
We’ll project it for you. Mike Fiers seems like the logical pitcher for the third game of the series for the Athletics. The Athletics win when he’s on the mound. They score when he’s on the mound.
Fiers still has a 4.58 ERA and a 4.94 FIP on the season and has looked worse at home. He’s allowing righties to hit over .300 on the season and that White Sox line-up should stack at least six righties against Fiers.
If it’s left-hander Sean Manaea getting the start for the A’s, the White Sox have the best numbers against lefties in baseball. That shouldn’t be a problem either for the Sox offense.
Meanwhile, Dane Dunning will more than likely get the call to open up this game. The White Sox will rely on a rookie in a game three?
I would think so. Dylan Cease already pitched in yesterday’s game and Reynaldo Lopez has been hammered most of the season. You’re looking at a bullpen game from Dunning if he doesn’t perform.
Dunning has allowed nine runs in two games and is starting to fall apart late in September. Reynaldo Lopez might piggyback in this game.
In yesterday’s game, we saw so much hard contact. Look, the pressure is on the pitchers against two fantastic lineups. The over is enticing here.
Wednesday, September 30th
Pick: New York Yankees (-124)
The Yankees just defeated the Cleveland Indians, 12-3 in the first game of the potential three-game series. This was an offense facing Shane Bieber, who will likely win the AL Cy Young this year.
When this Yankees lineup is healthy, watch out.
Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound for the Yankees. He went 3-3 on the season with a 3.56 ERA in 10 starts. His strikeouts are average but he rarely walks batters. There will be times where he allows the long ball but other than that, he’s been a bit above average this season.
Tanaka, when not facing the Blue Jays, had a terrific September and knowing that he’s going to face an Indians offense that has struggled all season long should help.
In postseason play, Tanaka has a 1.76 ERA and has been a force. Playoff Tanaka is something different.
He’ll go up against Carlos Carrasco who is 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA on the season. Carrasco’s record shares everything you need to know. The Indians lack offense and really lack if when Carrasco is pitching.
Carrasco has had his moments and could shine early against the Yankees. But when it comes time for the bullpen’s, the Yankees have the edge, as they showed in the first game of the series.
The Yankees will have plenty of opportunities to score runs in this game and back Tanaka. I trust the Yankee lineup way more than the Indians and Tanaka way over Carrasco. Oh and also the bullpen.
The trust trifecta is in place here. Take the Bronx Bombers.
Tuesday, September 29th
It’s playoffs time! The White Sox will send Lucas Giolito to the mound to face Jesus Luzardo of the Athletics in the first game of a potential three-game series (best of three).
Jesus Luzardo is a left-handed pitcher who has a 4.12 ERA and a 4.19 FIP on the season. Luzardo struggled in his last start against the Dodgers, allowing three runs on three hits and three walks in three innings.
He struggles against premier hitting. The White Sox lineup is full of right-handers that can do absolute damage against Luzardo. The White Sox lead all playoff teams in batting average against lefties along with home runs and plenty of other categories. This team rakes left-handed pitching.
Luzardo has a 4.62 ERA in September, which has been his worst month of the year so far. Righties have eight of the nine home runs he’s allowed and have an OBP of .325 on the season against Luzardo.
Lucas Giolito hasn’t been spectacular either but we’ve seen Giolito perform under pressure. Do you remember his no-hitter this season!? Giolito might allow a couple runs, as he has every game in September, but Luzardo can implode. Giolito won’t.
Sunday, September 27th
We’re at the finish line. The conclusion for the regular season is here. The Orioles have no shot at the playoffs but the Blue Jays have already clinched.
In the final head-to-head match-up between these two teams, the Orioles will pitch Keegan Akin while the Blue Jays will pitch Tanner Roark.
Let’s just focus on the Orioles bats. The two times the Orioles have faced Roark this season, they’ve combined for 17 hits and six runs. In eight of his last nine starts, Roark has allowed multiple runs and hasn’t finished more than five innings this season.
Roark has allowed nearly three home runs per nine innings. The Orioles don’t have any pressure. The team can play who they want, when they want, where they want and all of the above.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays might want to keep a couple of their better relievers on the shelf after Roark goes his usual four or five innings.
The Orioles offense has exploded against Roark and that should happen again with a solid and balanced lineup.
Saturday, September 26th
Pick: White Sox -.5 F5 (-110)
The White Sox are still fighting for the top spot in the AL Central while the White Sox’s opponent in the Cubs have their NL Central top seed locked up.
The Cubs will pitch Jon Lester who has struggled a little bit this season. He has low strikeout numbers and has allowed plenty of home runs this season. The White Sox would know.
Lester last faced the White Sox at home and allowed nine hits and eight runs in 3.2 innings of work. In that start, the White Sox hit four home runs against the left-hander.
The White Sox are known for their power against lefties and have 25 home runs, which is second best in the league, against lefties this season. The entire lineup is very solid against lefties and the White Sox lead in mostly every category against left-handed pitching.
Lester has looked solid on the road this season but don’t let that fool you. He’s faced the Pirates, Tigers, Brewers, and Indians, four really bad offenses. The White Sox are one of the better offenses in the league and will have plenty of chances to score against Lester at home.
Dane Dunning will take the mound for the White Sox. The rookie has looked solid this season but had his first hiccup of the season against the Indians last time out. Before his loss to the Indians, the White Sox started the season 5-0 in Dunning starts.
The Cubs offense has been so quiet in the last week. Sure, they hit on Dylan Cease on Friday but Cease has been asking for a start like this for quite sometime after being lucky for most of the season.
Dunning has better stuff than Lester and the Cubs don’t even hit right-handers well this season. The White Sox also have something to play for and have the match-ups to back them up in this one.
Friday, September 25th
The original line is set at 10.5. We’re taking Over 9.5 in this match-up.
The Boston Red Sox will send out Chris Mazza who is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the season. Mazza also has a 4.06 FIP but has a batting average of balls in play at .373, which means he’s getting hard and fielders aren’t able to field balls in play.
Mazza has struggled against lefties who are hitting .326 while righties aren’t too bad either at .283. The walks can get high for Mazza and he’s struggled on the road this season where he’ll be pitching in this one.
Meanwhile, Kyle Wright will take the mound for the Braves. He’s been awful this season (unless he’s pitching against the Mets). He’s struggled with walks all season long, walking over six batters per nine innings and allowing a BABIP of .300. Wright has an FIP of 6.02 and an ERA of 5.74.
Neither of these pitchers will throw a quality start. They’ll allow a couple runs and dip early for their bullpens. Here’s the problem, though. The bullpens on both sides haven’t performed too well as of late either. I like this game to reach double digits in the run total department.
Thursday, September 24th
We’re back in the win column. A recent trend we’ve seen is that unders are starting to hit more than overs in the last couple of weeks.
It’s because offenses like the Cardinals and Brewers that have talent on paper but ultimately don’t come out with many runs in their games.
The Brewers will pitch Corbin Burnes who has allowed just one earned run in his last 29.2 innings pitched. Burnes has underrated and not talked about enough but he has a 1.77 ERA and a 1.78 FIP, which is one of the best numbers in baseball for qualified pitchers. He’s got a high strikeout rate and limits home runs well.
His opposition is Kwang-hyun Kim, who has also been fantastic this season with a 1.59 ERA and a 3.97 FIP. Kim likes soft contact and throws strikes to get it. He won’t surprise you with strikeout stuff like Burnes but he’ll be able to go deep in games due to getting contact in play for fielders to make a play on.
He’s been doing that all year long and while he’s coming off a poor start against the Pirates, the Cardinals expect a rebound performance against a Brewers team that can’t get out of their own way.
Also, don’t forget, both teams are fighting for a playoff spot right now. Pitching will be premier and runs will come at a premium.
Wednesday, September 23rd
The Twins will send out Kenta Maeda to the mound who is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA. While the Twins already clinched their spot in the playoffs, they’re still sending out their A+ lineup and are looking to win more games as a momentum builder into the playoffs.
They’ll take on Casey Mize, the rookie for the Tigers. He’s 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA and an FIP just below six. Mize has struggled with runners on base this season and has walked a high amount of batters. If he puts runners on base via walks, he’ll have trouble pitching around jams.
The Twins have already faced Mize twice and hit him both times for a combined five earned runs in seven innings along with four walks and seven strikeouts.
Mize will be pitching on the road where he’s allowed 13 hits in 13.2 innings along with eight runs in three starts. Mize has struggled against lefties and the Twins are expected to have five lefties in their lineup.
Meanwhile, Mize has only finished five innings in one game. Therefore, once the bullpen comes in, the big split lineup should keep the Tigers bullpen off balanced leading to more runs for the Twins.
Tuesday, September 22nd
Jordan Lyles will take the mound for the Rangers. He’s been having a terrible season with a 7.07 ERA along with a 5.97 FIP. Lyles has started games and tried to piggyback off other starters and nothing has worked. He’s gone deep in games and has been an innings eater but that has paid the price.
Lyles doesn’t get a high amount of strikeouts but does allow nearly two homers per nine innings and struggles to keep runners on base this season with a low ground ball rate.
On the other hand, Caleb Smith will give it a go for the Diamondbacks. In three starts this season (one with the Marlins) he’s been hit with the long ball countless times and can lose many batters to walks in certain spots.
Both of these teams have nothing to play for. Offenses will let loose and be aggressive. These starters will likely exit the game early and we’ll then get plenty of opportunities against bad bullpen pitching from both of these teams.
I was thinking this game would’ve been sitting around 10. I found it at 9. I’ll take it.
Monday, September 21th
Pick: Phillies -.5 F5 (-115)
Here’s a big mismatch. Anibal Sanchez will take the hill for the Nationals against the Phillies. In nine starts, he’s allowed at least three runs in eight of them. One of them was against the Phillies earlier this year where he allowed nine hits and three earned runs (four runs) in 3.1 innings.
Sanchez has an OBA of .330 and is getting beat up with 10 home runs in. 42.2 innings.
Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will take the hill for the Phillies. He’s been the Phillies ace this season as he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any start this season. Wheeler can go deeper and sometimes will struggle as he fatigues.
His strikeouts aren’t up but his walks and home runs are low while his ground ball rate is high. He’s done a great job getting double plays and limited runs when guys are on base.
The Phillies are fighting for a playoff spot while the Nationals are counting down the days until they can relax at home.
I’ll grab the Phillies at -.5 in the first five innings as my play of the day!
Sunday, September 20th
The Braves and Mets have incredible lineups but will send out pitchers who just haven’t performed this season.
Kyle Wright will take the hill for the Braves. He has a 1-4 record with. a 7.20 ERA and a 7.11 FIP on the season. His walks and home runs are high and the last time he faced the Mets, he escaped in 3.1 innings after allowing five hits and four walks.
Nine baserunners in. 3.1 innings and the Mets didn’t score? That’s pretty lucky. Wright should’ve bought a lottery ticket in that one.
Furthermore, Rick Porcello will pitch for the Mets. He has a 6.06 ERA and while he’s limited walks and home runs, he’s allowed plenty of base hits and extra base hits in the yard as he has a BABIP of .377, which is way above the average and not good.
Porcello has also struggled with runners on base this season. He’s way below average in holding runners on at just 57.10 percent.
Both offenses should light it up in this one. It’s a day game but we might see fireworks in the daylight.
Saturday, September 19th
Alright… The Yankees finally quit on us. It’s fine. We’ll move on. The bats weren’t on fire to start their series against the Red Sox. So be it. It was a heat check.
There’s another team that’s about to get hot. The St. Louis Cardinals are 24-24 on the season and if they want a postseason birth, they’ll need to win more games.
Kwang-hyun Kim will take the hill for the Cardinals. He’s allowed no runs in his last 24 innings pitched. He’s a guy who limits his walks and home runs and is getting soft hits to his fielders or hard hits finding his fielders. Either way, he’s been sensational and is coming off a seven inning performance where he struck out a career high six batters.
In his lone start against Pittsburgh, he allowed one run but no earned runs on three hits in six innings.
He’ll face Mitch Keller of the Pirates. Keller has an ERA of 5.06 and an FIP of 9.01 in three starts this season. He’s walking more than striking out and has allowed 3.38 batters per nine innings this season.
Last season, when looking at a bigger sample size, he allowed batters to hit .348 on the season in over 40 innings pitched.
The Cardinals have a lineup that will likely have five lefties and four righties. Keller is very poor against lefties and the Cardinals balanced lineup will throw off the relief pitching of Pittsburgh when the time comes.
The Cardinals need this win to get over .500 as the season winds down. I’ll take my chances with Kim, who has a .63 ERA against Keller who has a 5.06 ERA.
The Cardinals also had 14 hits in 14 innings during their double-header on Friday and scored 13 runs.
The Cardinals are about to toy around with the Pirates on Saturday night.
Friday, September 18th
Pick: Yankees -.5 (-130)
The Yankees continue to cash tickets. However, now the Yankees are leaving home and will travel to Boston to face the Red Sox. They’ll put their eight-game winning streak on the line against Martin Perez.
Perez is 3-4 with a 4.33 ERAa on the season. He’s allowed three or more runs in five of ten starts this season and allowed three runs to the Yankees in three innings in his lone start against the Bronx Bombers.
The Yankees are currently as healthy as they’ll be this season and that’s a really good sign heading into the playoffs. The team is still fighting for the AL East division and have plenty to play for. There’s no stepping off the gas.
Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the Yankees. He’s been a little off in a couple starts but in his last start against the Orioles, he looked on point. Montgomery looked comfortable and allowed just three hits in 5.2 innings while striking out nine batters and walking none.
Montgomery doesn’t walk many batters which is something he’s been consistent with all season long. He’s also started against the Red Sox twice and in both games, held the team to one earned run in both starts.
The Yankees will look to make a statement. against the Red Sox to open up this series with their extremely hot bats. They’ll do enough for Montgomery.
Thursday, September 17th
The Yankees have scored 33 runs in their last two games and now they’ll face Chase Anderson with a fully healthy roster and lineup.
The Yankees are absolutely raking and Chase Anderson has been absolutely smashed in his last couple of starts. In the last four games that Anderson has started, teams are averaging 10 runs per game.
Anderson has a 5.81 ERA and a 5.29 FIP this season in seven starts. He’s allowing 2.05 home runs per nine innings and is allowing a BABIP of .346 on the season.
The Yankees have scored 33 runs in their last two games against the Blue Jays. The bullpen is taxed and that means Anderson might have to eat more innings.
He’s allowed 10 earned runs in his last 6.2 innings of work. In September, he has a 13.50 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .406. He’s also struggled on the rad this season with a 9.00 ERA in seven innings and two starts. He’s allowing batters to hit .345 on the road this season.
The Yankees offense has returned. They’re back in the Bronx and having fun. I’ll take the same bet as yesterday. Give me the Yankees over 5 for their team total!
Wednesday, September 16th
Tanner Roark is taking the hill for the Blue Jays against the Yankees. He’s coming off a two run performance against the Yankees in four innings where he allowed two solo home runs and three walks.
The Yankees just scored 20 runs against the Blue Jays and Toronto needed to use five bullpen arms. Every arm used gave up at least one run to the Yankees.
In this game, the Yankees team total is set at five, which is low when looking at Tanner Roark’s stats this season. He has a 5.60 ERA and a 6.82 FIP on the season. He’s allowing 2.55 home runs per nine innings and will be pitching in Yankee Stadium, which is famous for some easy home run launches.
On the road, Roark has a 5.24 ERAA and is allowing opponents to hit .311 on the season with just 19 strikeouts and 10 walks.
Righties are hitting nearly .400 against Roark and Luke Voit, a righties for the Yankees, has now hit 18 home runs on the season. Maybe he’ll get another one, with runners on base.
Gerrit Cole will also take the mound for the Yankees. It’s not official, but I’ll think about taking the Yankees -1.5 in this game as well. Cole is coming around and should start to get into rhythm before the postseason. The Yankees need that and so does he.
Tuesday, September 15th
The Royals and Tigers both have 20 wins. After this game, one team will have 21. The Tigers will pitch Matthew Boyd, who is a left-hander that really struggles against right-handed pitching.
The good news is that the Royals can put out a lineup full of right-handed batters that can do some damage against Boyd.
Boyd is 1-6 in nine starts. with aa 7.63 ERAA and a 6.11 FIP. Boyd has been bad and yet he’s a favorite with the Tigers in this game against the Royals.
The Royals are on the road, which means they’ll guarantee themselves nine full innings to score five runs.
Boyd has allowed 50 hits to righties and about half of them have been for extra bases. On the season, in nine games, Boyd has allowed 14 home runs with 12 against righties.
The Royals aren’t the best offense in the league but Boyd is one of the worst pitchers in the league, especially against righties.
There will be plenty of opportunity for the Royals to score runs early and often. Take over 4 at William Hill. If it reaches four, it’s a push but if we get five or more, it’s a win. Boyd has allowed seven or more runs on his own multiple times this season. Another time wouldn’t be surprising.
Monday, September 14th
We’re back to 60 percent! Wow! It’s been a fun MLB season with my picks for American Betting Experts!
Let’s keep it rolling!
The Twins will face Dylan Cease of the White Sox who is 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA. I know what you’re thinking. That’s a solid ERA.
However, his FIP is sitting at 5.92. Cease has done a terrific job getting out of jams and getting outs with runners on base.
He hasn’t faced the Twins this season but the Twins have been a a nightmare to Cease in the past. Cease is allowing 1.76 home runs per nine innings and getting 37.6 percent of ground balls this season. He has been a bit lucky.
The home runs he’s allowed are mainly solo home runs and he’s left 83 percent of runners on base this season. That will regress.
In his start against the Twins last season, Cease allowed 10 hits, eight runs, two home runs and one walk in two innings.
The Twins offense has hit well with Jose Berrios on the mound recently. Berrios will get the start for the Twins. He’s pitched against the White Sox twice this season. In those games the Twins have scored 18 runs combined. That’s nine runs per game when Berrios gets the start against the White Sox.
That’s not a convincing stat but it helps when everything falls into place. The Twins get nine full innings to score five runs against Cease and the White Sox. Whether they’ll have to chance or get out front early, I love the Twins chances to score plenty in this one.
Sunday, September 13th
Pick: Nationals -.5 F5 (-125)
The Braves have been slugging the baseball while the Nationals are dead last in the NL East.
These two teams will face each other on Sunday.
The match-up? Max Scherzer for the Nationals and Kyle Wright for the Braves.
Scherzer is 4-2 with a 3.40 ERA while Kyle Wright has an ERA of 8.05 and a 7.76 FIP. Wright is walking over eight batters per nine innings and is allowing plenty of hard contact and long balls.
Against lefties, he’s allowing nearly a .400 average. Juan Soto, Eric Thames and the rest of the lineup should be able to put up a couple runs for Scherzer in the first five innings.
The Marlins scored five in two innings in Wright’s his last start!
Saturday, September 12th
The White Sox were no-hit early against the Tigers. Then they erupted for four runs and defeated the Tigers, 4-3.
The White Sox or Tigers shouldn’t be worried about a potential no-hit bid here.
Michael Fulmer will take the start for the Tigers. He has an 8.24 ERA and is allowing 4.58 walks and 3.2 home runs per nine innings this season.
On the flip side, the White will pitch Reynaldo Lopez, who is 0-2 with a 8.38 ERA on the season. Lopez has a high strikeout rate but also has a very high walk rate and home run rate, like Fulmer.
Fulmer allows nearly a .500 average to righties and the White Sox lineup is filled with powerful righties who can do some damage while the Tigers can load up their lineup with righties against the right-hander in Lopez.
Righties are hitting .350 against Lopez with four extra base hits in 20 at bats.
There should be plenty of fireworks in this one. Get ready!
Friday, September 11th
The Indians are coming off a game where they were no-hit by Royals’ rookie pitcher Brady Singer through almost eight innings. Not good.
Now the Indians will have to face Kenta Maeda of the Twins who is 4-1 in eight starts with aa 2.77 ERA and a 2.94 FIP. Maeda has a very low BABIP and is getting a very high amount of strikeouts on the season. At home, he’s allowed a .063 opponent batting average and has a 1.80 ERA.
On the flip side, although the Indians have struggled hitting, they haven’t struggled pitching. Shane Bieber will get the call with his 7-0 record and 1.25 ERA. Bieber has an extremely high strikeout rate and very low walk rate. He’s a stud and is working on winning the AL Cy Young Award.
Last time he faced the Twins, Bieber allowed two runs in his start and the total fell under. The last time Maeda started against the Twins, he allowed one run and the total went under.
With two aces on the mound and the potential for these pitchers. to go deep in this game, I’ll take the full game under here.
Thursday, September 10th
The Red Sox have averaged over six runs in their last six games and now have a total of 3.5, on the road, against the Rays.
The Red Sox will face Josh Fleming, the left-hander on the Rays. He’s 3-0 in three starts but has allowed multiple runs in two of those three games. The Red Sox have actually hit lefties well this season with a weighted batting average of .341 against lefties along with a .322 BABIP.
Fleming has a 3.52 ERA but actually has a 4.65 FIP, proving he’s been a bit lucky to start the season. Now, Fleming hasn’t been bad but with the Red Sox pitching Mike Kingham, the expectation is for both teams to match each other and score plenty of runs.
Kingham is a lefty starter for the Red Sox who will get his first start of the season or Boston on the road. The Rays offense has been kind of silent recently and while they should absolutely hit Kingham, I’d rather worry about the Red Sox scoring over on their team total of 3.5. We need four runs and the Red Sox are on the road, meaning we’re also guaranteed nine innings to get it.
Wednesday, September 9th
The Astros and Athletics will play after a double-header the day before. Most of the time you’ll expect no offense in the game after a double-header. Except this time.
The Astros will give Luis Garcia his first start of his career in the MLB. Garcia hasn’t pitched in Double A. He hasn’t pitched in Triple A. But he has a relief outing in the majors against the Angels where he allowed one home run and three walks in 4.1 innings pitched.
Garcia was thrown flames in Single A, striking out 14 batters per nine innings. When he faced the Angels in his first MLB appearance, he walked three and only struck out two. It got a lot harder for Garcia and it showed.
Garcia was a bit lucky in that first start. Plenty of hard contact became outs and runners on base were left on base due to the hard contact becoming outs.
The Athletics have a much better line-up top-to-bottom compared to the Angels and the A’s should be able to work Garcia who will likely have jitters coming into this game.
The MLB is a lot harder than single A. Even if Garcia does perform well for five innings, the A’s will get a crack at the Astros bullpen for half the game. The Astros have been very poor recently in the last week. The Athletics are fresh and healthy after sitting out a week previously due to COVID concerns.
I like the A’s to put up runs at home in this one.
Pick: Yankees -.5 F5 (-118)
The Yankees have been real bad as of late. They’ve lost 15 of their last 20 and are on a very bad losing streak.
But you know who has been worse this season? The pitcher they’re facing in Tanner Roark. Roark is a guy who doesn’t get ground balls and has a high SIERA with an FIP above 6.30!
Roark has now allowed three earned runs in five of his seven starts and hasn’t gone deeper than five innings. Roark is getting hit hard and often while also walking a solid amount. Righties are hitting .417 with 14 extra base hits of their 25 hits while lefties have been working walks like crazy.
Meanwhile, the Yankees will pitch young prospect Deivi Garcia who has looked very solid in his first two starts. Garcia has a 2.96 FIP and a 3.38 ERA through two starts. He’s getting high amount of strikeouts and limiting the walks.
Garcia vs Roark is a big mismatch. Look for the Yankees to return to form, at least for this game.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 Wins $162.80
Tuesday, September 8th
The Chicago White Sox will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on the road. The White Sox bats are exploding while the Pirates count down their days until vacation.
Joe Musgrove will take the mound for the Pirates. He has a 0-4 record in four starts this season with a 6.62 ERA and an FIP of .575. While his strikeout rate is high, he’s walking plenty of batters while allowing 2.04 home runs per nine innings.
Musgrove is struggling against righties this season as they’re hitting .367 with 11 hits in 30 at-bats. The White Sox have plenty of right-handed bats that slug. If Musgrove walks a couple batters and the White Sox smash the ball with runners on base, the White Sox can hit their team total fast in this one.
Even if the White Sox don’t get it all against Musgrove, they’ll face a Pirates bullpen that has some new faces that the White Sox can also manhandle.
Pick: Padres Over 5 TT (-114)
The Padres are another team that’s making a playoff push while their opponent will sit home watching the playoffs in just a couple weeks. The Rockies don’t have great pitching. When I say pitching, I mean starters and relievers.
Chi Chi Gonzalez will take the mound for the Rockies. He has a 5.00 ERA and a 6.04 FIP on the. season in one start and nine innings pitched. He already has a tough task going up against Mike Clevinger. The tougher task is going up against a very good Padres lineup that is reliable from top to bottom.
Chi Chi Gonzalez is allowing lefties to hit .500 while righties are hitting .150 on the season. Combined, his OBA is still high at .294 with two home runs and six runs in nine innings pitched.
Again, even if Chi Chi pitched well for four innings, the Padres will still get to feast on the Rockies bullpen that has arguably been the worst in baseball.
Tuesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 Wins $163.39
Monday, September 7th
Pick: Twins Over 4.5 TT (-135)
I bet you’ve never seen this before. Michael Fulmer will get the start for the Tigers. In six starts, he has a 7.27 ERA and no losses. What the heck!
The Tigers continue to score with Fulmer on the mound. So while on paper the Twins look like clear favorite, this game might end up a shoot out.
Fulmer hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any start this season. He’s coming off his best outing where he allowed three hits in three innings along with two walks and no runs. He had six strikeouts.
Good for him… The last time he pitched three scoreless, he came back and couldn’t finish three innings in his next start after allowing five hits and three runs. This is the same exact situation.
Fulmer will take the mound during the day after a solid outing in his last start. Then he’ll get rocked by the Twins, who are a very solid offense. Sure the offense is missing a couple key pieces but that won’t stop them from hitting Fulmer and the Tigers bullpen.
This number is a run lower than I expected. Hop on it while you can!
Sunday, September 6th
Pick: Padres F5 (-121)
Pick: Padres (-110)
Yesterday we had two pushes. I’ve never seen that before. I was sweating for six hours just to break even and lose nothing. That was weird.
Now I’m going to do something strange. Something I’ve never done before. I’m double-dipping on the Padres.
The Padres will send out Garrett Richards against the Athletics’ Mike Fiers. Richards is 1-2 with a 4.63 ERA in eight starts this season. He hasn’t been able to go deep in games recently and blew up two starts ago against the Mariners.
His last start was much better as he went 3.2 innings and allowed just one hit and no walks, along with no runs. Richards has shut down righties and has pitched very well on the road this season.
Meanwhile, Mike Fiers has looked awful at home and is allowing righties and lefties to slug with seven home runs on the season. Before his last start against the hopeless Rangers, Fiers allowed 32 hits in 27 innings and 17 runs.
The Padres made plenty of additions to their lineup that can really shine against Fiers who is a contact pitcher. At home, Fiers has a 6.46 ERA and an OBA of .323 in 15.1 innings. He’s allowed three home runs and struck out five at home. He’s allowed nearly as many home runs as strike outs.
I’m all over the Padres in this one. Double the fun. Win the first and hold onto the lead to finish.
Saturday, September 5th
The Chicago White Sox are currently in first place in the AL Central. They’ve had some impressive hitting and fantastic pitching. They’re a sleeper pick to win the World Series. Let’s just say it how it is.
The White Sox are also fantastic at hitting lefties and they’ll take on a lefty in Kris Bubic of the Kansas City Royals. Bubic and the Royals are 0-6 when he pitches this season.
He faced the White Sox in his last start and allowed two runs on six hits in 5.1 innings. The White Sox ended up scoring that magical number; five runs.
The Twins faced Bubic twice in a row. In the first game, they. scored two runs off four hits. In the second game, the Twins had nine hits and scored fur runs. The Twins made adjustments in their second game and changed their approach.
You can expect the same from the White Sox, who are hitting .307 against lefties this season, which is the best in baseball. The White Sox are a right-handed heavy lineup that just destroys lefties with power. Look for an explosion offensively from the White Sox especially with ace pitcher Lucas Giolito on the mound.
Let’s continue to pick on lefties on Saturday. Madison Bumgarner will make his return to the diamond after an injury sidelined him since August 9.
Bumgarner started four games this season and went 0-3 for the Diamondbacks with a 9.35 ERA and a 8.78 FIP. He didn’t get high strikeouts and walked 3.63 batters per nine innings. He also got just 21.2 percent of ground balls and had an average exit velocity of 91 on balls that were in play. He was allowing 3.63 home runs per nine innings.
Now he’ll return to San Francisco and pitch against his former team. Bumgarner allowed righties to hit seven home runs in four starts this season. Bats like Wilmer Flores and Donovan Solano can really do damage along with other batters like lefty Mike Yastrzemski who is betting .292 against lefties with four home runs.
The Giants are scoring consistently at home and should be able to get to Bumgarner, like every team this season. The Diamondbacks have allowed seven or more runs in every game that Bumgarner has pitched in this season.
Saturday’s MLB Parlay: $50 Wins $158.97
Friday, September 4th
Pick: White Sox -.5 F5 (-120)
The White Sox will visit the Royals for a weekend series. Both teams will send out their rookie pitchers. Only one pitcher has looked like an ace. The other has looked average.
Dane Dunning of the White Sox has looked like the ace. In two games started, he’s got a 2.89 ERAA and a 2.17 FIP. He’s getting 52 percent of ground balls and really doesn’t look afraid on the mound. We saw what the Indians did to the Royals with their pitching staff. The White Sox have that same type of potential.
The Royals have a couple rookie pitchers as they look for quality arms for next season. Brady Singer will get the start and while his season started off well, it’s starting to go downhill after all.
Singer has an average strikeout rate and a high walk rate to go along with 2.08 home runs per nine innings. Singer has now allowed two or more runs in his all seven starts this season.
Dunning has allowed three runs in two starts and is holding righties to an average of .105. Lefties are hitting just .214. The Royals should struggle against Dunning, who is starting to make a name for himself.
With many double headers for Friday’s action, many lines will not be out until closer to game time. We’ll update with another game on the slate before the MLB games start up.
Thursday, September 3rd
Pick: Dodgers Over 5 TT (-125)
The Dodgers struggled offensively for most of the night on Wednesday. Usually they bounce back with a solid performance.
That should be the case on Thursday with the Dodgers going up against Luke Weaver of the Diamondbacks. The Dodgers will pitch their ace in Clayton Kershaw.
Weaver is 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA and while he’s getting a solid amount of strikeouts, he’s allowing 3.29 walks per nine innings and 2.63 home runs per nine innings all while his BABIP is nearing .400.
Weaver allowed eight hits and four runs against the Giants in his last start. where he went just three innings. Weaver allows solid hard contact and he’s not getting many ground balls. That means heavy hard line drives in gaps and over the wall. Basically places where fielders can field the ball well.
The Dodgers have plenty of pop from the left side where Weaver has allowed most of his home runs. Then even better news is that Cody Bellinger, who has 10 home runs on the season and two against Weaver, will more than likely return in the lineup after missing a couple days due to a sore lat.
A couple home runs with runners on base are all we need for this one.
Due to a small slate of games, there may be only one play today. I will update if I find another game.
Wednesday, September 2nd
Pick: Twins Over 4.5 TT (-130)
The White Sox will send Reynaldo Lopez to the mound who has a 9.00 ERA and a 7.01 FIP. Lopez is struggling to get ground balls and hasn’t gone past four innings in any start this season.
it’s worse for Lopez too. He’s allowed 6.75 batters per nine innings to walk and is also allowing 2.25 home runs per nine innings.
In his first start of the season, the Twins rocked him for four runs in .2 innings. Lopez exited the game without finishing an inning.
The Twins have one of the best lineups and baseball and a lineup that produces plenty against bad pitching. This team capitalizes and should smack Lopez again as long as they’re able to stay patient and let Lopez fall behind in counts.
The Indians love their new prospect in Triston McKenzie. McKenzie has started two games this season and has a 2.7 ERA and a 4.34 FIP in 10 innings pitched. McKenzie’s strikeout rate is high and he’s allowed just five hits in ten innings this season. Walks are starting to increase but you could imagine nerves kicking in early in his career.
Shane Bieber and Zach Plesac enjoyed dominating the Royals lineup. McKenzie should be able to replicate.
On the flip side, Jakob Junis will take the hill for the Royals with the Indians bats starting to heat up. Junis has a 4.26 ERA but anFIP of 5.27 and a BABIP of .342. Junis is not getting a high amount of strikeouts and is walking 3.55 batters per nine innings all while allowing multiple runs in three starts this season.
The Indians have scored a combined 20 runs with McKenzie on the mound in two starts this season. In a rubber game of a three-game series and the Indians fighting for the AL Central, the Indians have an edge and reason to play in this one.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 Wins $153.99
Tuesday, September 1st
Pick: Astros -.5 F5 (-154)
The Texas Rangers were sellers at the trade deadline. Now they’ll have to go strictly to a bullpen game on Tuesday with Luis Garcia who hasn’t pitched more than 1.1 innings in a game this season and has a 5.40 ERA.
Garcia has also allowed at least one run in four of his six appearances while also allowing a runner in every appearance. The Rangers bullpen is nothing special, as Texas is near the bottom in all pitching categories. The staff has walked way too many batters this season. The group is more depleted so you could imagine what the Astros can do to this right-hander and the rest of the bullpen.
The Astros have used their home field to their advantage. Maybe they’re hitting cans. Whatever the case may be, they’re hitting at home this season and getting the job done.
On the flip side, the Astros will pitch Framber Valdez who has a 3-2 record and a 2.35 ERA along with a 2.59 FIP. Valdez has some nasty stuff and is getting a high amount of strikeouts and ground balls.
Here’s where things get crazy. Valdez has been excellent but in his starts, the Astros bats have been loud. In his last three starts, the Astros have scored 35 runs. Yes, 35 runs in three games when Valdez gets the start.
Going up against a pitcher that has a 9.25 ERA and an FIP above six, I would think it’s safe to believe the Astros, at home, can do this same type of damage in this game.
Pick: Indians -.5 F5 (-134)
The Indians sold off Mike Clevinger to the San Diego Padres. However, they elected to hang on to Zach Plesac, who was also out and about in Chicago with Clevinger.
Plesac was dominating the league in three starts before his team suspension. He pitched three games and had an ERA of 1.29 and an FIP of 2.38. He was striking out 10.29 batters per nine innings and walking under one per nine innings.
Of course, Plesac hasn’t pitched since August 8. He might be limited to five innings but if he starts where he left off, things will be good.
On the other hand, Matt Harvey will get the call for his third start of the season with the Royals. Harvey has an ERA of 11.12 and has walked 6.35 batters per nine innings in two starts this season. His BABIP is high and he’s allowing plenty of home runs on the season.
The ground ball rate is low for Harvey as well and he’s really struggling the second time around the order. The first five innings gives us time for Harvey to implode in the third of fourth inning to get the win.
Tuesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 144.38!
Monday, August 31st
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cardinals Over 4 (-135)
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently one game away from .500. They’ll take on the 15-19 Reds who have been on and off all season long.
The Reds will pitch Anthony DeSclafani while the Cardinals will send Dakota Hudson to the mound. DeSclafani is 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA and a 5.5 FIP. He’s exactly what his ERA says he is.
DeSclafani has struggled in his last two starts after two very sold starts of no runs. Since then, he’s allowed double digits in runs in just over six innings. That’s concerning.
Along with some bad numbers as of late, DeSclafani has poor numbers against the Cardinals in his career allowing 46 his in 163 at bats to the Cardinals with an OBP of .346 and a slugging percentage of .518.
Monday, August 31th
St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Cardinals Over 4 (-135)
The St. Louis Cardinals are currently one game away from .500. They’ll take on the 15-19 Reds who have been on and off all season long.
The Reds will pitch Anthony DeSclafani while the Cardinals will send Dakota Hudson to the mound. DeSclafani is 1-1 with a 5.71 ERA and a 5.5 FIP. He’s exactly what his ERA says he is.
DeSclafani has struggled in his last two starts after two very sold starts of no runs. Since then, he’s allowed double digits in runs in just over six innings. That’s concerning.
Along with some bad numbers as of late, DeSclafani has poor numbers against the Cardinals in his career allowing 46 his in 163 at bats to the Cardinals with an OBP of .346 and a slugging percentage of .518.
Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, and Dexter Fowler have hit above .300 with Carpenter and Goldschmidt hitting north of .450 each against DeSclafani.
DeSclafani allowed two runs on three hits ini 4.1 innings against the Cardinals in his last start. In that contest, he also walked four and struck out just two batters using 81 pitches.
When a pitcher makes his second consecutive start against a team, it’s usually bad news for the pitcher as the hitters start to recognize the pitcher’s movement and pitch selection in certain spots.
I’ll ride the Cardinals to score over four runs. If they get four, it’s a push. If they get five, it’s a win. That seems doable, especially knowing they’ll bat in all nine innings.
Check back in the morning (EST) for another selection as we await lines.
Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-150)
The Cleveland Indians will send out AL Cy Young front runner, Shane Bieber to the mound. He’s 6-0 in seven games and the Indians haven’t lost a single game where he’s pitched this season.
Bieber has struck out eight or more in every start this season and has hit double digit strikeouts in his last three starts.
Earlier in the season, Bieber allowed four hits and one walk with 14 strikeouts in six innings against the Royals.
Brad Keller is getting the start for the Royals. He has a 2.08 ERA and is 3-1 with the Royals in four starts. He started off very well with three straight games allowing no runs but the Cardinals hit him hard in the fourth game.
He struggled getting ground balls, which is usually his speciality. The Indians are one of the bad hitting teams in the league and there’s even talk that star infielder, Francisco Lindor could be on the move today at the trade deadline. I expect Keller to get those grounders and get through this Indians lineup with ease.
Sunday, August 30th
Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds -.5 F5 (-106)
The Cubs will send out Tyler Chatwood who has a 24.55 ERA on the road this season in two starts.
I could just end the blurb here and that would be enough info on why I like the Reds here. Anyway, I’ll continue.
Chatwood has allowed 10 earned runs ini his last 3.2 innings, which were his two starts on the road. In his last start, he lasted 1.1 innings and walked five batters while allowing two runs. In the game before that, he allowed eight earned runs in a short amount of time.
The Reds have some quality numbers against Chatwood with a .355 batting average along with more walks than strikeouts.
The Reds will pitch Luis Castillo, who is 0-4 with a 3.62 ERA. Castillo’s record is no indicator on how he’s pitched. He’s been a lot better than his record. Castillo has limited walks and has a high amount of strikeouts. He’s walking a high amount as well but Chatwood will out-do him in that department.
Castillo has a 1.50 ERA at home in two starts and only has three walks at home in those two starts. Castillo has had three quality starts in six starts this season. If he’s able to provide another one, the Reds should be well on their way to a first five victory.
Saturday, August 29th
Cleveland Indians @ St Louis Cardinals
Pick: Cardinals F5 (-129)
The Indians scored 14 runs against the Cardinals on Friday night. Either the Indians are coming around or they just have their moment. Either way, there’s no way I’m looking to wager on that Cardinals bullpen after last night.
Therefore, I’ll ride the F5 with the Cardinals with Jack Flaherty on the mound. Flaherty will look to stretch himself out and go deeper in this game. He only went five innings and had plenty more in the tank against the Royals in his last start. He still got the win after allowing just one hit in five innings.
In two home games, Flaherty has looked comfortable with a 2-0 record and a 1.50 ERA at home along with a .159 batting average.
On the flip side, Carlos Carrasco will take the hill for the Indians. He’s allowed multiple runs ini five of his first six starts of the season and has really struggle as of late, allowing three or four runs without even finishing five innings.
Carrasco has struggled against lefties this season and the Cardinals will likely have five lefties in the lineup along with a couple righties that hit righties really well like Paul Goldschmidt, who already has three home runs versus righties.
I’ll bank on Carrasco allowing multiple runs in the first five innings. The Indians had an outburst of runs on Friday. I bet you they didn’t save some for Saturday’s game.
Friday, August 28th
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox
The Royals will take the road to play the red hot Chicago White Sox. However, the pitcher they’re facing hasn’t been red hot throughout his career.
Reynaldo Lopez has started two games this season and has went just four innings in two starts allowing 6 earned runs in four innings. Lopez currently has an ERA of 8.16 and an FIP of 7.84.
The Royals have plenty of power on both sides of the plate and should give Reynaldo Lopez trouble all night until his early exit. By then, the Royals will need maybe one or two more in eight innings to cash their ticket for the over.
The White Sox are no strangers to runs either. This can be a high scoring game where each team looks to chase one another. In these scenarios, why not take the Royals to score five runs and get over 4.5.
Thursday, August 27th
Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays are already 2.5 games ahead in first place of the AL East. Meanwhile, the Orioles are trending downward and are starting to fall right back where everyone expected them to be.
John Means will get the start against the Rays and he has a 10.13 ERA along with a 7.66 FIP.
Means has low strikeout numbers and has allowed 3.38 home runs per nine innings this season. On top of that, he’s not going deep into games and is allowing righties to hit .278 in 36 plate appearances with four home runs.
The Orioles have lost every game Means has pitched in this season. The Rays have been scoring 3-5 runs consistently per game.
The Orioles used plenty of their bullpen arms on Wednesday are are likely going to need to work their bullpen again in this one after Means allows a couple of earned runs and gets the hook.
The Rays should come out aggressive and score early and then often. I like the Rays to pound Means and the Orioles bullpen if necessary to get the job done.
As of now I have just one play. As lines come out and uncertainty fades, I might add another.
Wednesday, August 26th
Chicago Cubs @ Detroit Tigers
Pick: Over 5.5 Runs F5 (-103)
The Chicago Cubs were embarrassed in Tuesday’s game against the Tigers after allowing seven runs before scoring one. The Cubs offense has been a bit shaky recently but the Tigers will send Michael Fulmer to the mound.
Fulmer hasn’t finished more than three innings in any start this season and has an ERA of 9.53 and an FIP of 9.88. Fulmer has allowed six home runs in just 11.1 innings of work. He also has a BABIP of .353 and an OBA of .360 with righties hitting .476. The Cubs will have more right-handers in the lineup compared to lefties for this game.
Jon Lester will get the start for the Cubs. Lester has an ERA of 5.06 and an FIP of 5.99 on the season. He’s allowed 13 runs in his last two starts and has now allowed seven home runs on the season.
Between Lester and Fulmer, they’ve allowed 13 long balls combined. The Tigers are one of the best hitting teams against lefties this season, hitting above .300 with an ISO of over .250.
Let’s get some runners on base and hit some long balls early!
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are one of the better teams at home this season but they just took a loss to the Mariners on Tuesday.
The momentum should switch tomorrow with Dinelson Lamet on the mound. Lamet is 2-1 in six starts this season with a 1.89 ERA and a 2.99 FIP. In Lamet’s start, the Padres have scored five or more runs in four of six and have a fascinating match-up against Taijuan Walker of the Mariners.
Walker is 2-2 with a 4.00 ERA and a 4.95 FIP on the season. He’s allowing 1.67 home runs per nine innings and is striking out 8.33 batters per nine innings. Walker has thrown two straight quality starts but before those two games, he has two ugly performances with nine runs combined in two starts.
Walker is inconsistent and will face a Padres team that has been very hot offensively within the last two weeks. Walker struggles to get ground ball rates and allowed three solo home runs in his last start against the Dodgers. Walker was lucky no one was on base for those long balls.
That’s what we call lucky. The Padres are known for hitting grand slams. All we need is one grand slam and another run. Walker has a low swinging strike rate, a low ground ball rate and a high hard contact rate. What could be better for the Padres offense?
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 182.16!
Tuesday, August 25th
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Blue Jays F5 (-121)
The Toronto Blue Jays are finally above .500. This team has had solid pitching and timely hitting as of late. The Blue Jays will send Chase Anderson to the mound who has a 2.79 ERAa on the season in three starts.
Anderson has pitched 9.2 innings in three games, going a season high 3.2 innings in his last start. Anderson won’t go deep in games but the Blue Jays have one of the best bullpens in the league according to FIP numbers which eases the blow.
Anderson has given up two home runs in 9.2 innings pitched but hasn’t allowed any other extra base hits.
The rookie Kyle Hart will take the mound against the Blue Jays for his third career major league start. Hart has a high strikeout rate but also a very high walk rate and is allowing plenty of long balls as well.
Hart also isn’t getting many ground balls and likely won’t go deep in this game either. The Red Sox bullpen is considered one of the worst in the league when looking at FIP numbers.
The Blue Jays will just need to be patient at the plate early in this game against Hart. Hart losses command fast especially when runners are on base. The Blue Jays should pull ahead early in this one and likely won’t look back when they do.
Currently, I have just one play. I will update this page if a second play is added.
Monday, August 24th
Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Reds (-139)
The Milwaukee Brewers are coming off a brutal weekend in Pittsburgh, getting swept by the worst team in baseball.
It’s not going to get much easier with Trevor Bauer on the mound for the Reds. Bauer is 3-0 with a .68 ERA on the season and will make his 5th start in this one. Bauer pitched a complete game one-hitter against the Royals in a second game of the double-header against the Royals.
Bauer doesn’t have a high ground ball rate but that’s also because many balls aren’t in play. Bauer gets over 14 strikeouts per nine innings this season and leads the league in ERA. His FIP is 1.96 on the season, which is unheard of.
Brett Anderson is the king at ground balls. Ground balls are good but that doesn’t always mean they’re effective. Anderson’s exit velocity is over 90 miles per hour which means he’s allowing hard ground balls that are hard for fielders to react on.
Anderson has allowed two earned runs or less in every start this season but he’ll absolutely allow more balls in play and more opportunities for the Reds to score.
In Bauer I trust. Plenty of teams will have a break on Monday. Instead, the Brewers, who lost to the Pirates in three straight games will need to continue playing ball in a place where they haven’t played well this season.
Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros
Pick: Astros F5 (-150)
The Angels will send Patrick Sandoval to the mound in this one against the Astros. Sandoval has allowed extremely hard contact this season and has also allowed nine earned runs ini his last ten innings pitched.
Sandoval and the Angels have lost his last three outings this season and righties are hitting .302 against Sandoval. The top of the Astros order includes top tier righties like George Springer, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa along with Yulieski Gurriiel. Sure, Alex Bregman is out of the lineup, but those righties can do damage against Sandoval.
On the flip side, Framber Valdez will get the start for the Astros making it lefty against lefty in this one. Valdez has induced a high amount of ground balls throughout his career and should be able to get the job done in this one as well. While he walks a high amount of batters, he’s been able to limit hits which has helped him leave 75 percent of runners on base this season.
He’s allowed just two earned runs in his last 13.2 innings pitched.
Monday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 143.62!
Sunday, August 23nd
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
Pick: Over 9.5 (-124)
The Marlins and Nationals are coming off two close games and a split double-header on Saturday. Now both teams will send out pitchers who haven’t really performed this season.
The Marlins will pitch rookie Humberto Mejia who has a 5.68 ERA and a 9.01 FIP in two starts against the Mets this season. Mejia will have high strike out numbers but also extremely high walk numbers and home run rates.
Mejia hasn’t shown ability to get grounders and has a high exit velocity this season.
Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez will take the mound for the Nationals and is 0-3 with a 8.5 ERA. His FIP is 6.89, which is better than his ERA but still awful.
Sanchez has having trouble leaving runners on base this season and also isn’t getting ground balls. He’s walking 4.5 batters per nine innings. In 18 innings, Sanchez has allowed 17 earned runs. He’s getting hit just as hard as Mejia.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants
Pick: Over 9.5 (-105)
It looks like Sunday’s slate will feature plenty of fireworks. The Diamondbacks have struggled offensively but should get going against Trevor Cahill, who will take the mound for the Giants.
Cahill has a. 1.59 ERA on the season. But don’t be fooled. He also has a 6 FIP 5.2 innings this season.
Cahill is on pace to walk 7.94 batters per nine innings this season and is getting a very low amount of ground balls while stranding every runner on base. That’s going to change and should change against the Diamondbacks.
Luke Weaver will take the mound for the Diamondbacks. Weaver has a 9.16 ERA and a 7.03 FIP even after a five-inning shutout against the Athletics.
Weaver has allowed 25 hits and 19 earned runs in 18.2 innings this season, including seven homers and eight walks. I’m not buying into his last start. The Giants offense has been consistently good and they’ve been getting the job done with runners on base.
Sunday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 177.38!
Saturday, August 22nd
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Pick: Phillies (-115)
It’s been a bad couple of days for the Phillies. They’ve lost a double-header and then watched their ace pitcher in Aaron Nola get absolutely rocked in Friday’s match-up.
Zack Wheeler will take the mound for the Phillies in this one. If Nola wasn’t around, Wheeler would be the ace. He’s the newly acquired pitcher for the Phillies who has produced.
Wheeler has a 3-0 record with a 2.81 ERA on the season. His strikeouts are down but his ground balls are up. That means quick and easy outs to go deeper in this game. Bettors and cappers love softly hit ground balls. Wheeler is a pro at this.
He’ll go up against Robbie Erlin, who was acquired mid-season by the Braves. He made his Braves debut against the Phillies and allowed a grand slam to Didi Gregorius.
Erlin will get his strikeouts but he’ll also allow plenty of hard contact. Once guys get on base, forget it. Power central for Philly behind their consistent arm in Zack Wheeler.
(I just have one play today. Tough day!)
Friday, August 21st
Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-121)
The Phillies are coming off a double-header loss to the Blue Jays after losing two straight games in which they led early.
You’d have to imagine the Phillies will be tired after 14 innings of baseball. Now they’ll travel to Atlanta and face one of the hotter pitchers in baseball in Max Fried, who has a 3-0 record with a 1.24 ERA and a 2.33 FIP.
Fried has allowed just one earned run ini his last 17.1 innings and has looked stellar at a time where the Braves needed an ace to show up once Soroka went down. He’s been that guy.
Aaron Nola will get the start for the Phillies. He’s also been fabulous as he’s allowed just eight hits in 21 innings with 30 strikeouts and three walks.
The Braves had a day off on Thursday.
Now they’ll go up against Nola after losing a little rhythm.
Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: Angels F5 (-129)
This is the biggest pitching mismatch on the slate. Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Angels. He has a 1-1 record with a 4.74 ERA but his FIP is a solid 2.71. Heaney has looked poor in his last two starts but should rebound nicely against an Athletics team that tends to strikeout a bunch.
Heaney pitched against the Athletics earlier this season and allowed two hits and one run ini 4.2 innings. He looked great against the A’s.
Meanwhile, Mike Fiers will give it a go for the Athletics. Fiers has faced the Angels twice this season and has allowed 14 hits and nine runs in two starts this season. He’s a guy that won’t strike out many and is allowing plenty of home runs on the season.
The Angels have four in a little over seven innings against Fiers.
Friday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 162.87!
Thursday, August 20th
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Over 9 (-120)
The Diamondbacks have shifted Alex Young from the bullpen to a starters role recently. Young has a 3.86 EA along with a 5.33 FIP on the season.
Young is striking out 9.64 batters per nine innings and walking under two batters per nine innings. In his first start of the season, he lasted just 4.1 innings and allowed four hits and allowed one run on a solo home run. This means that we’ll see a half game, at least, of the Arizona bullpen that allows plenty of hard contact and don’t strike out many batters.
On the other hand, Sean Manaea will take the mound. He’s allowed 20 runs in 20 innings pitched this season along with three homers. Manaea also hasn’t reached past five innings and has allowed multiple runs in every start this season. The Diamondbacks have been extremely hot offensively (minus last game). Look for the D-Backs to get back on track and hit Manaea with some power.
Texas Rangers @ San Diego Padres
Pick: Padres -.5 F5 (-118)
The Padres walked off with a win against the Rangers last night and have all the momentum coming into this game. Dinelson Lamet will get the start for the Padres and he’s been their ace to start the season.
Lamet has a 2-1 record with a 1.59 ERA and an FIP of 2.77. He’s striking out 11.44 batters per nine innings and has gone at least five innings in every start this season.
At home this season, Lamet has an ERA of 1.56 in three games with 21 strikeouts and three walks.
Kyle Gibson is making the start for the Rangers. In his last start, he allowed seven hits and two runs to the Rockies. In the previous start before that, he allowed nine hits. Throughout the season, he’s allowed 25 hits in 21.2 innings. That’s a hit per inning and more.
Gibson has an FIP of 4.32, worse than his 3.74 ERA. The Padres have 29 home runs against righties this season. Why not tact on some more.
Thursday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins 176.68!
Wednesday, August 19th
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Phillies -.5 F5 (-110)
This is a big pitching mismatch. The Phillies will pitch Jake Arrieta who has a 4.02 ERA and a 3.37 FIP on the season. He’ll go up against the Red Sox rookie in Kyle Hart who pitched one game last Thursday and was shelled by the Rays for five earned runs and seven total runs in two innings.
The Phillies have a lineup that has been red hot as of late. The squad scored 13 runs over the Red Sox on Tuesday and should continue their explosion against Hart.
Arrieta has done a great job for the Phillies limiting walks and getting ground balls.
Cleveland Indians @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Indians -.5 F5 (-121)
Here’s another pitching mismatch for Wednesday. Aaron Civale will take the hill against the Pirates while Steven Brault will pitch for Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have just four wins on the season and are sending out a pitcher who has thrown seven innings in three starts and one relief outing. Brault allows plenty of walks and doesn’t get many strikeouts.
The Indians offense won’t strike out against Brault which means balls will be in play and runners will be on base due to his walk rate.
Meanwhile, Civale has an FIP of 2.96, which is lower than his ERA of 3.60. Civale is limiting walks and striking out plenty in his starts while also getting a solid ground ball rate.
As a pitcher, it has to feel good knowing you’re facing that Pirates offense that can’t do much on any given day.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $174.77!
Tuesday, August 18th
Oakland Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Athletics (-150)
The Oakland Athletics will pitch ace Frankie Montas while the Diamondbacks will pitch Luke Weaver.
Luke Weaver has an 11.85 ERA in four starts and has an FIP of 8.99 on the season after allowing 18 runs in 13.2 innings pitched. Weaver is walking 4.61 batters per nine innings and isn’t getting many ground balls this season. Instead he’s getting line drives and hard contact with a 91.2 exit velocity on the season.
Batters are hitting Weaver with a .355 average on the season with 12 extra base hits of the 22 hits allowed.
Frankie Montas hasn’t pitched since August 8 but will get the start after allowing just one run in two starts (14 IP) combined. Montas has struggled a bit against lefties but the lineup for the Diamondbacks will likely hold more righties than lefties.
Milwaukee Brewers vs Minnesota Twins
Pick: Twins -.5 F5 (-115)
The Twins will send out Kenta Maeda who is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA on the season. Maeda has a very nice 2.9 FIP and has pitched in 23.2 innings. He’s allowed just 13 hits and seven runs along with two home runs. However, he’s been able to get nearly 50 percent of ground balls on the season.
Maeda is a guy who will limit hard contact and get plenty of swinging strikes and strike outs in his starts. This season, batters are hitting .155 against Maeda.
Corbin Burnes will give it a go for the Brewers. The Brewers had a day off on Monday but it won’t make much of a difference going up against Maeda.
Burnes has done well for the Brewers this season but if you look at last year’s stats, you start seeing some other things. It looks like regression is starting to come for Burnes.
This season batters are hitting .151 but last season batters hit .330 and he had an ERA of 8.82. In his last start, he couldn’t even go four innings and allowed two hits and two earned runs with five strikeouts and three walks.
If the Twins can get on base, they’ll be able to capitalize on a couple mistakes by Burnes in the first couple of innings. The Twins can get out to an early lead fast.
Tuesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $156.15!
Monday, August 17th
New York Mets vs Miami Marlins
Pick: Over 8.5 (-134)
The Mets and Marlins will send out pitchers with ERA’s at nine or above in this one. Robert Gsellman will get the call for the Mets while Jordan Yamamoto gets the call for the Marlins.
Gsellman has started one game and pitched in relief in another. In those two outings, he has a 5.4 FIP and struggled in his lone start against the Nationals. Last season, the Marlins had an OBA of .297 against Gsellman.
Meanwhile, Jordan Yamamoto has been worse. Yamamoto has allowed eight runs in 7.1 innings pitched this season with 13 hits and four of them being home runs. Batters are hitting .394 against Yamamoto and he hasn’t even pitched in the fifth inning.
The Marlins bullpen has one of the worst xFIP in the league this season too.
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Angels
Tyler Anderson will get the start for the Giants in this one. This has the Angels excited to hit tonight. Anderson is 0-1 in five games this season. Through three starts and two relief outings, he has a 3.63 ERA but a 6.18 FIP.
Anderson is just ready to blow up after allowing four runs in five innings against the Astros in his last start. His OBA is just .242 but he’s also walking more batters than he’s striking out this season.
Last year, he had trouble against both sides of the plate. Although he’s looked better against righties, I’m not sure that lasts very long.
The Angels have plenty of power and if he’s walking runners on base, this team total can be hit in no time.
Sunday, August 16th
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
Pick: Cubs -129 (TBD)
The Chicago Cubs have now lost two straight games to the Milwaukee Brewers. Now they’ll have long-time ace, Jon Lester on the mound, who has been really good this season.
Lester has a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.06. He’s had very low strikeouts but hasn’t allow much hard contact this season. He has an FIP of 3.83 on the season and is getting 41.2 percent ground balls.
Batters are hitting Lester with a .117 average and lefties don’t have a single hit against Lester.
Josh Linblom will make his next start for the Brewers. He has a 5.68 ERA on the season. While his strikeout numbers are high, he’s also allowed four long balls on the season in 12.2 innings. All four home runs came from the left side.
Those Cubs lefties are licking their lips.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Dodgers -.5 (-121)
We all love rivalries. Here’s one in California. The Dodgers will send out Dustin May who has looked really good this season.
May is 1-1 with a 2.75 ERA and a respectable 3.79 FIP. He’s allowed six earned runs in 19.2 innings and has struck out 17 while walking five. He’s also induced 50 percent of ground balls on the season.
The Dodgers have won in three of the four games May has started. Meanwhile, the Angels haven’t been so lucky with Julio Teheran.
Teheran has an ERA of 13.50 in two starts and will make his third start on Sunday. Teheran has gone a combined seven innings and has allowed seven runs while walking four and striking out three.
He has not started the season off well and is getting hit with an OBA of .333.
Saturday, August 15th
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Pick: Braves -1.5 (TBD)
The Braves took a bad loss to the Marlins, as predicted yesterday. The same won’t happen in this one. Max Fried will take the hill for the Braves and has a 3-0 record with a 1.59 ERA.
Fried has been the one reliable arm for the Braves this season, inducing 54 percent of ground balls. He also has an FIP of 2.27 and hasn’t struggled with command at all this season.
On the other hand, Daniel Castano will make his second start of the season after his MLB debut last week. He went 4.1 innings and allowed five runs on five hits along with two home runs. Castano wouldn’t be in in the majors if it weren’t for starting pitching injuries.
The Braves should handle Castano and Fried should look solid once again.
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-105)
I’m not the biggest runline fan but these two games call for it. Trevor Bauer will take the mound for the Reds. He has a 2-0 record with a .93 ERA in three starts this season.
Bauer has dealt 19.1 innings and allowed just two earned runs with 32 strikeouts and just four walks. Bauer has been on another planet and is a potential pick for the NL Cy Young right now.
He’ll go up against the 4-14 Pirates offense that is not very good this season. The Pirates pitcher, Steven Brault has also been ineffective this season. In three starts and four appearances, Brault has thrown just seven innings.
Yes, three starts and four appearances… and he’s only thrown seven innings. Brault has walked six and struck out six and has an FIP oof 4.35 for less than nine innings of work. That’s an average of 7.71 walks per nine innings.
And even if Brault doesn’t last long in this game, the Reds feasted on the Pirates bullpen in their first two games and should have no problem doing that again, backed by Bauer on the pitching side.
Friday, August 14th
Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins
Pick: Marlins F5 (-106)
The Atlanta Braves are going to be without Ronald Acuna and Ozzie Albies for this game and potentially more games in the future. Those are two bats that the Braves will absolutely miss as Acuna has two homers off pitcher Pablo Lopez.
Lopez has a 1.80 ERA on the season and a 2.07 FIP in two games. He’s got 66.7 percent of ground balls and has struck out nearly ten batters per nine innings.
Meanwhile, Kyle Wright has a 6.75 ERA and a 5.9 FIP in three starts this season. He’s walked 10 batters in three starts and has allowed nine earned runs in 12 innings on 15 hits.
The Marlins have a large edge in the first five innings.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
Pick: Over 9 (-133)
The Royals and Twins have had some serious offensive outputs recently. The Twins are coming off a 12 run performance on Wednesday while the Royals have scored 5.75 runs in their last four games.
Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for the Twins. This will be his second start of the season against the Royals. In his first start, he went three innings and allowed two runs on four hits with a home run and two walks along with two strikeouts.
Odorizzi struggled against the Royals last season with an ERA over seven in two starts. The Royals have a solid offense and maybe a bit underrated offense.
The Royals will pitch Jakob Junis who has allowed four earned runs in nine innings pitched this season. In those nine innings, he’s allowed 11 hits but struck out just four and walked four.
Junis also faced the Twins a week ago and allowed two runs on five hits in 4.2 innings. Through his two starts, Junis has a 6.4 FIP, which is not very good. It means Junis has been a bit lucky. Plus the Twins have seen Junis once and should benefit the second time around seeing him.
Friday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $173.55!
Thursday, August 13th
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Over 5 Team Total (-121)
The Orioles have won two straight against the Phillies and will now look to salvage the series with at least one win. The Phillies getting swept was really never in the cards at the start of the series.
Tom Eshelman has escaped damage in his first two starts. In 7.1 innings, he’s allowed six hits and three earned runs with two long balls. Currently, he’s induced 15 fly balls and just seven ground balls.
He’s not a strike out pitcher and the Phillies don’t even strike out often against righties anyway. Last season, Eshelman allowed 12 home runs in 26 innings and righties hit .359.
Look for the Phillies to come out swinging for at least one win in the series.
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-139)
The Padres and Giants will play a rubber match of the three-game series after the Dodgers escaped with a sound victory over the Padres. Both teams will send out young potential aces to the mound who have performed well this season.
Chris Paddack is in his sophomore season and has struggled a bit for his standards. He’s allowed at least two earned runs in his last three stars and three earned runs in his last two starts.
He’s been tagged with the long ball but he’s been getting ground balls at a high rate to start the season which his encouraging.
Urias has a 2.40 ERA and a 2.83 FIP and will take the mound for the Dodgers. Urias has allowed just four earned runs in 15 innings pitched this season. While the walks are starting to creep up, it’s good to know that it was a non-issue last season and shouldn’t continue moving forward.
Wednesday, August 12th
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Pick: Over 8.5 (-134)
The White Sox and Tigers will play a rubber game of a three-game series with two pitchers who have struggled this season. Dylan Cease is coming off a five-inning performance where he allowed no runs but was lucky with balls in play. Cease has a high walk rate and has allowed 14 hits in 13.1 IP. Batters are hitting .280 against Cease this season with lefties hitting .313.
There will be at least five lefties in the lineup along with a couple righties that have performed well against righties this season.
On the flip side, Matthew Boyd will get the start for the Tigers. He’s allowed 23 hits in 14.2 innings pitched. Although he has a high strikeout rate, he’s allowed 35 fly balls and 16 ground balls this season.
Batters are hitting .365 against Boyd this season with righties hitting .396. The White Sox will have a lineup full of righties that can produce.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Twins (-139)
The Twins will send out their ace pitcher in Kenta Maeda while the Brewers will pitch Eric Lauer, who really struggled in his last start.
Lauer is a guy that allows heavy hard contact and gets ground balls at a low rate. He’s been worse at getting ground balls this season. He went just three innings in his first start of the season and allowed 6 earned runs on five hits. He induced 11 fly balls and just one ground ball in that game.
Kenta Maeda limits hard contact for the Twins and has a high amount of swinging strikes. He doesn’t get a high amount of strikeouts but he has seen that number total rise this season.
Maeda has now completed back-to-back quality starts and should have another solid outing in this one.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $150.50!
Tuesday, August 11th
Baltimore Orioles @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (+100)
The Baltimore Orioles will pitch Alex Cobb who has looked very solid this season. Cobb is 1-1 in three games with a 2.51 EERA and a 4.15 FIP too start the season.
Cobb allows hard contact but gets a good amount of swinging strikes and ground balls. He’s allowed 10 hits in 14.1 IP with 15 strikeouts and six walks.
Cobb won’t go deep but he’ll give you five solid innings.
Wheeler, on the other hand, has an ERA of 2.08 and an FIP of 3.97 through two starts this season. He went six innings and allows six hits and three runs (2 ER) against the Yankees. In that game, he got more ground balls than fly balls. He limits walks well and doesn’t get hit with hard contact much.
Athletics vs Angels
Pick: Angels -.5 F5 (-110)
Mike Fiers has been someone I’ve loved to fade recently. Fiers is striking out 2.81 batters per nine innings and has a 5.63 ERA along with a 5.34 FIP.
He also won’t get many swinging strikes and balls will be in play against a hot Angels lineup. Fiers has allowed 10 earned runs on 18 hits in 16 innings pitched and is allowing batters to hit .281 on the season while righties are hitting .387.
On the flip side, Dylan Bundy is coming off a complete game after allowing four hits including a solo homer to the Mariners in the Angels win.
Bundy pitches to low contact and has a high strikeout rate with batters hitting just .145 against him this season.
Tuesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $171.38!
Monday, August 10th
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Pick: White Sox (-139)
Yesterday, we took the Tigers. Today, we’re betting agains them. The White Sox will send out Dallas Keuchel who has a 2.55 ERA and a 2.8 FIP on the season.
Keuchel is getting nearly 60 percent of ground balls and while he doesn’t get many strikeouts, he’s been able to limit walks and hard contact. So far this season, he’s allowed five earned runs in 17.2 innings with batters hitting .217 on the season.
Michael Fulmer will get the start for the Tigers. Fulmer will be on a pitch or innings limit. Therefore, Daniel Norris will follow for the second portion of the start.
Both pitchers have ERA’s above double digits. Fulmer has a high SIERA and doesn’t get strikeouts and allows hard contact. The White Sox should pounce early.
Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Twins (-112)
The Twins are a pick-em against a team that is below .500 on the season. The Twins will send out Randy Dobnak who has a .6 ERA and a 2.7 FIP on the season.
Last season wasn’t any different as he had an ERA below 1.6 in nine games. Dobnak is the real deal and has one of the lowest SIERA’s on the slate tonight. He also gets plenty ground balls.
He’ll go up against Adrian Houser, who has also been solid to start the season. Houser has a .75 ERA but a 4.05 FIP. He hasn’t allowed a single runner on base to score this season, which should ultimately regress against the hard hitting Twins.
Monday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $163.40!
Sunday, August 9th
Detroit Tigers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Tigers (-124)
The Tigers have been one of the more surprising teams in the MLB this season and are now 7-5 on the season. The Tigers will send out Spencer Turnbull who had 17 losses last season. His stats were better than his record.
Turnbull looked real good in his first couple of starts this season against the Reds. Now he gets a Pirates offense that has been real bad this season. He’s allowed just three earned runs in two starts.
Meanwhile, Steven Brault will take the hill for the Pirates after a brutal relief outing against on Friday where he allowed four runs on three hits and three walks. He’s not going deep in this game. And the Pirates bullpen isn’t effective.
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 (-139)
Both teams will send out their ace pitchers who have combined to allow just 5 ER in six starts combined.
Lance Lynn will take the hill for the Rangers. He’s allowed just one earned run in three starts this season in 18.1 innings pitched. Lynn has a 2.55 FIIP and is striking out 11.78 batters per nine innings this season.
Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney will get the start for the Angels. He’s allowed four earned runs in three games and although he hasn’t gone deep in games, he’s gone deep enough for the first five innings to hit.
He also has an FIP of 2.85, which is below three, like Lynn.
Sunday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $147.06!
Saturday, August 8th
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Tom Eshelman will take the mound for the Orioles after having a 6.50 ERA last season. Eshelman started this season off with a 3.1 inning performance against the Marlins, where he allowed one home run and a walk.
Don’t be fooled though, Eshelman had a .313 OBA last season and went 1-2 in ten games played along with a road ERA of 5.40.
On top of that, the Orioles have the worst bullpen in baseball with an MLB worst xFIP of 5.05. Eshelman has an xFIP of 5.41 and an FIP of 7.18 after his one start.
Colorado Rockies vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Over 9 (-125)
The Rockies will start Ryan Castellani, who will make his major league debut on Saturday night. He’s under the spotlight but each time he moves up a tier, his stats get worse.
In Triple A, Castellani went 2-5 with an 8.31 ERA in 10 games started. In those ten games, he allowed 11.2 hits, 2.9 home runs, and 6.2 walks per nine innings. If his stats get worse than that, he’ll be out after the first inning.
On the other hand, Nick Margevicius is slated to pitch for the Mariners. It’ll be his first start of the season but he pitched in relief earlier this season. Margevicius has thrown five innings in three games and has allowed 3.6 homers per nine innings this season.
Lefties hit .390 against Margevicius last season and the Rockies have plenty of pop from the left side.
Saturday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $173.33!
Friday, August 7th
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
Pick: Yankees (-108)
The Yankees have lost two of their last three games after a split double-header and one-run loss yesterday. Masahiro Tanaka will take the mound for the Yankees after throwing 2.2 innings in his first start of the season against the Red Sox.
Tanaka allowed four hits and one earned run (two runs) in those 2.2 innings.
While he doesn’t have the best numbers as a pitcher, his numbers against the Rays were spectacular last season. He had a 1.59 ERA in four starts, going 2-0 in four games. He struck out 28 and walked just three against the Rays in four starts.
Blake Snell will take the mound for the Rays. Snell has thrown five innings in his last two starts. How deep will he go in this game? Last season, Snell went 0-2 in five starts against the Yankees.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres
Pick: Padres (-132)
The Arizona Diamondbacks will send out Luke Weaver on the mound who is currently 0-2 with a 14.73 ERA on the season. In 7.1 innings, he has allowed 14 hits and 12 runs along with 5 walks.
If you look at his numbers dating back to last season, Weaver is 1-4 in his last seven starts with a 5.13 ERA. While Weaver seemingly had a solid season last year going 4-3 with a 2.94 ERA, he actually struggled a little late in the season last year.
Zach Davies will take the hill for the Brewers and while he doesn’t overpower any hitter, he’s able to limit damage by getting weak contact and giving very few walks. His BABIP is currently .241 and his FIIP is 4.48 on the season.
Friday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $167.20!
Thursday, August 6th
Texas Rangers vs Oakland A’s
The A’s will pitch Mike Fiers who has allowed 11 hits in 10 innings pitched this season. Those hits and one walk brought home six runs in the first two games this season.
Fiers isn’t a strikeout pitcher as he has just three strikeouts in two games. The good news for the Rangers is that they don’t have a high strikeout rate against righties this season.
The Rangers lineup also has a ton of power against Fiers in their career. Joey Gallo has two homers while Rougned Odor and Elvis Andrus have three each against Fiers. Todd Frazier also has two long balls while Shin-Soo Choo is batting .370.
The team total is set a run too low.
New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Over 9.5 (-118)
The Yankees and Phillies are coming off a double-header. In the first of the two games, both teams combined for 18 runs in seven inning. The next game was much quieter with four runs.
With some rest, the Yankees and Phillies figure to put on another fireworks show in this one.
Jordan Montgomery will take the mound for the Yankees. He’s an average pitcher with ground ball rates and strikeout rates along with hard contact. However, the Phillies have a wOBA of .389 against lefties this season and will get to bat against Montgomery, a young lefty who has a high FIP after one solid start.
On the other hand, the Yankees will face Zach Eflin, the average right-hander who has trouble getting swinging strikes.
Both pitchers won’t walk many but both teams can absolute get hits in this one. The Yankees have a wOBA of .375 against righties, which leads the league.
Thursday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $170.20!
Wednesday, August 5th
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
Pick: Dodgers -125
The Los Angeles Dodgers will take on the Padres in the third game of the series. Ross Stripling will take the mound for the Dodgers. On the season, he’s 2-0 on 12.1 innings pitched and has an ERA of 2.92 and an FIP of 4.45.
Stripling had a 3.80 ERA on the road last season and got the ground ball over 50 percent of the time last season in 15 starts and 32 games played. He’s also been able to limit walks and home runs per nine innings, which is a great way to shut down the opposition.
For the Padres, it’ll be Garrett Richards on the mound. He has gone 10.2 innings and allowed nine hits and four earned runs with 12 strikeouts and four walks on the season.
Richards barely pitched last season due to injury. He has a high walk percentage and has allowed 51.7% hard contact dating back to last season. The Dodgers are all hard contact and power.
Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 -102
Adrian Houser will give it a go for the Milwaukee Brewers. In his first start of the season, Houser went five innings and allowed one run and three walks along with four strikeouts.
He had a 3.17 ERA at home but went 2-3 in those games last season, holding opponents to a .216 average in those games. while he struggled against lefties, he didn’t have much of a problem against righties last season.
On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel will pitch for the White Sox after starting the season 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA on the season. Keuchel haas a solid ground ball rate and has done a great job keeping runners on the base when ending innings.
Both teams should go out to another slow start.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $181.80!
Monday, August 3rd
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Under 4.5 F5 -127
The Indians will pitch Zach Plesac who went 8-6 last season with a 3.81 ERA. In his first start this season, Plesac dominated the White Sox through eight innings, allowing three hits and striking out 11.
Plesac had a 4.10 ERA at home last season and had a 5-2 record. He also held lefties to a .216 average while righties hit .253. Last season, he took a loss against the Reds after allowing three home runs in 5.1 innings. Joey Votto is out for the Reds due to a possible virus and the Reds will be thin in their lineup.
On the other hand, Sonny Gray will pitch for the Reds after two starts this season of incredible baseball. Gray has a .71 ERA in two starts with 20 strikeouts on the season. He’s holding lefties to a .163 average and righties are hitting .120. He was this good last season too.
Chicago White Sox vs Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers will start Brett Anderson for his first start of the season. He didn’t make the first start in the rotation due to a blister on his hand.
Anderson had a 3.89 ERA last season pitching for the Oakland A’s. Now he’ll pitch for the an National League team against another AL team.
Anderson struggles against righties as he allowed a .325 average against righties last season.The White Sox lineup will be mainly from the right side with plenty of guys that have a solid wOBA.
The White Sox, as a team, are hitting .333 against lefties this season and should fare well against the lefty in Anderson.
Monday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $156.63!
Sunday, August 2nd
San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies
Pick: San Diego Padres -115
The San Diego Padres scored just one run in their Saturday match-up against the Rockies at Coors Field. That doesn’t happen very often.
Zach Davies will take the mound for the Padres who has had some success in Colorado. He had a .87 ERA in two games against Colorado and a 1.80 ERA in one game started at Coors Field last season.
Davies also pitched well on the road with a 2.94 ERA and went 4-3 in those road games with a .286 OBA.
He’ll go up against Anthony Senzatela, who had a 6.71 ERA last season. At home, he had a 6.21 ERA and still went 7-4 in those games. However, batters hit .300 against him at Coors Field. Look for the Padres bats to pick it up and slug today.
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles
The Rays and Orioles will play the final game of the three-game series. The Orioles are actually 4-3 on the season with a winning record.
How long will that last? Tommy Milone will take the mound for the Orioles after allowing four runs in three innings against the Red Sox. However, he still had five strikeouts but walked three batters.
Milone had. a4.76 ERA last season with the Mariners but had a low BABIP and low walk rate as well. If he keeps his walks down in this game, it should be low scoring for the Rays.
On the other hand, Yonny Chirinos is going for the Rays. He also had a low BABIP last season and didn’t walk many. In his first start of the season against the Braves, he allowed four hits and an unearned runs in four innings. He should stretch out to five innings in this one.
Sunday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $177.65!
Saturday, August 1st
Houston Astros @ Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Houston Astros -160
The Houston Astros will take on the Mike Trout-less Angels on the road with Zack Greinke on the mound. Greinke went 18-5 last season with a 2.93 ERA on the season. He performed better on the road wiith a 2,.64 ERA and went 10-4 in those games.
In his first start of the season, Greinke went just 3.1 innings against the Mariners and allowed three runs on three hits and 2 walks with two strikeouts.
Griffin Canning will take the mound for the Angels after going 5-6 ini 17 starts last season. Canning finished last season with a 4.58 ERA. Although he performed better at home last season, righties still hit Canning with a .263 average.
The Astros have plenty of right-handed pop in their lineup. That lineup and Greinke looks solid against the Angels.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -145
The Los Angeles Dodgers fell to the D-Backs in the first game of their series on Friday. There won’t be many times this season where the Dodgers lose multiple games in a row.
Julio Urias will take the mound for the Dodgers. He went 4-3 last season in 79.2 innings of work with a 2.49 ERA and a 3.43 FIP.
In his first start this season, Urias went five innings and allowed just five hits and one run with three strikeouts and three walks.
He had an ERA of 1.86 on the road last season in 18 games and three games started and held opponents to a .157 batting average on the road.
He’ll go up against Luke Weaver of the D-Backs, who had a very shaky outing to start the season. Weaver allowed seven hits and six earned runs in 3.1 innings of work against the A’s. He allowed two walks but struck out six in that game.
Weaver went 0-2 at home last season in five games and opponents hit .239 in those five games.
Weaver was solid last season but that first start of the season was concerning.
Saturday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $137.28!
Friday, July 31th
Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees
The Yankees will welcome the Red Sox to town for rivalry weekend. Both teams will send out pitchers who haven’t fared well in the past.
The Red Sox will pitch Ryan Weber who had an ERA of 5.09 last season and was just destroyed by the Orioles in his first start this season. He allowed six hits and six runs, including two home runs and three walks with no strikeouts in 3.2 innings of work.
The Yankees will look to include some lefties in their lineup knowing that Weber was smashed by lefties with a .317 average in 18 games played.
The Yankees offense is hitting up and hard contact rate against Weber is very high. Look for the Yankees to spray some fireworks tonight.
Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals
Pick: Chicago White Sox (-166)
The Chicago White Sox will send Dallas Keuchel to the mound to go up against the Kansas City Royals. Keuchel won his firs start of the season after going 5.1 innings of work, allowing three hits and two runs with just one strikeout and no walks.
On the road last season, Keuchel went 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA. Righties hit .281 against Keuchel but the Royals feature seven lefties in their normal lineup.
Against the White Sox, Dallas Keuchel has allowed 13 hits in 63 plate appearances for a .206 batting average with 18 strikeouts and six walks.
He’s taking on Kris Bubic who will be making his rookie debut going straight from Single A to the majors.
I don’t think he’s ready.
Fridays’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $148.93!
Thursday, July 30th
Cleveland Indians vs. Minnesota Twins
The Cleveland Indians will send their ace Shane Bieber to the mound after a 14 strikeout performance in his first start of the season. Bieber lasted six innings as his pitch count creeped up because of all the work he had to do to get those K’s.
Bieber had an ERAa of 2.88 ono the road last season and went 9-5 in 16 games last season holding opponents to a .199 batting average. However, Minnesota has some bats in the lineup that can do damage. They’ve hit Bieber with a combined average of .356 and an OBP of .385. Half of their lineup is scorching hot against Bieber.
With that said, the Twins have a fantastic offense that can easily put up runs on any given night. Knowing their success against Bieber and also knowing they might get the Indians bullpen for three innings makes me happy with this over bet.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles and New York Yankees finally played a game after the coronavirus scare kept them away from the diamond for a couple days. The Yankees destroyed the Orioles in the first game of the series.
The Yankees pitched their ace but now it’s time for the Orioles ace to make his debut. John Means was the Orioles all-star last season after going 12-11 with a 3.6 ERA. Means gave the Orioles a chance every night and that literally all he could’ve done.
The Yankees will pitch JA Happ who had an ERA of 4.91 and an FIP of 5.22 last season. Happ has some bad history against the Orioles lineup. At least four batters in the projected lineup hit .400 against Happ which is extremely interesting. Renato Nunez has four homers in 19 plate appearances against Happ.
The Orioles can absolutely upset in this game. But I’ll just take them to score over 3.5 runs. This could cash early.
Thursday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $153.12!
Wednesday, July 29th
Chicago White Six @ Cleveland Indians
Pick: White Sox -115
The White Sox had plenty of hype coming into the season but are now 1-4 to start the year. Lucas Giolito will take the mound for the White Sox after his first start of the season went down hill real fast.
Giolito allowed seven runs on six hits in 3.2 innings to the Twins, who are the best hitting team in the league so far this season. He’ll now go against the Cleveland Indians, who are also not too shabby with their bats.
Giolito was a stud last season and had a major hiccup to start the season. You’d expect him to get back on track like his 2019 numbers which were 14-9 with a 3.41 ERA on the season.
He’ll go up against Zach Plesac who will be making his season debut in this one. Plesac went 8-6 last season with a 3.81 ERA but a 4.94 FIP. Righties hit Plesac well and the White Sox have plenty of power from the right side.
Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays
The Washington Nationals will pitch their ace in Max Scherzer, who had a bad outing in his first start of the season. Scherzer allowed the Yankees to score four runs on six hits but still struck out 11 (and walked four).
Scherzer should bounce back in this one after going 11-7 last season with a 2.92 ERA. He shut down righties last season to a 1.93 batting average and that Blue Jays lineup is mainly right-handed.
On the other hand, Nate Pearson will make his rookie debut for the Blue Jays. Pearson is the 8th best prospect in the MLB and the Blue Jays top prospect in their system. He has plenty of potential and the Blue Jays staff continue to rave about him.
If he’s able to get through the first inning jitters, look for Pearson to have a really nice outing in his first career start against a Nationals team that doesn’t have a great offense.
Wednesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $161.75!
Tuesday, July 28th
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Houston Astros
Pick: Dodgers -139
The Dodgers will send Walker Buehler to the mound after a ridiculous breakout season last year. Buehler went 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA and a 3.01 FIP while also going 8-3 on the road with a 3.66 ERA. Buehler walked just 1.83 batters per nine innings while striking out 10.61 batters per nine innings.
Buehler wasn’t susceptible to the homerun last season and if he can continue that trend, he’ll be in solid shape moving forward.
He’ll go up against Framber Valdez of the Astros. Valdez went 4-7 last season in eight starts and 26 games played. He finished the season with an ERA of 5.86 and had an FIP of 4.98, which is awful. A fourth of his fly balls were home runs as well.
I’ll take the potential Cy Young in Walker Buehler in this match-up.
Colorado Rockies @ Oakland Athletics
Pick: Over 9.5 (-125)
Antonio Senzatela will take the mound for the Rockies after a brutal 2019 campaign. He went 11-11 on the season with an ERA of 6.71 and an FIP of 5.44. His numbers were actually worse on the road which seems impossible as he pitches his home games in Colorado.
Senzatela had a 7.29 ERA on the road and allowed lefties to hit .327 while righties hit .300 on the season.
He’ll go up against Daniel Mengden who allowed lefties to his an average of .300 on the season last year. The Rockies have plenty of left-handed bats in their lineup that can put a dent in the baseball.
Both of these pitchers are coming off awful 2019’s and should continue that trend going into this game.
Tuesday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $154.80!
Monday, July 27th
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Brewers -148
Adrian Houser will get the start for the Brewers after going 6-7 last season with a 3.72 ERA. Houser has an xFIP of 3.6 which is actually above average for starting pitchers.
Houser held righties to a .217 batting average last season and the Pirates have no offense from the right side to begin with.
On the other hand, Steven Brault will get the nod for the Pirates after last season where he had a 5.16 ERA on the season. He faced the Brewers five times last season but didn’t get a single win, going 0-1 in those five games.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds
This will be the third time I go back to the Reds at American Betting Experts. They’ve proved me wrong twice but I’m not about to strike out.
The Reds will go up against Jon Lester of the Chicago Cubs who has regressed remarkably in his last two seasons. Lester had a 4.69 ERA last season and has been torched by a couple Reds batters like Nick Castellanos and Eugenio Suarez.
The coronavirus might be going through the Reds organization. So make sure the line up includes at least Castellanos and Suarez before making this wager. But offensively, the Reds should have a solid day against Lester.
Monday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $157.92!
Sunday, July 26th
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Pick: Twins -140
Kenta Maeda, formally a Dodger, is now a Minnesota Twins pitcher. Maeda went 10-8 with an ERA of 4.04 but what stands out even more was his pitching performance against right-handed batters. Maeda allowed righties to a .158 batting average all of last season.
If you look at the White Sox lineup, most of their regular guys are right-handed. The Twins have plenty of power to go up against Reynaldo Lopez of the White Sox who finished last season with an ERA of 5.38. Lopez struggled against lefties and allowed a lot of extra base hits.
I’ll take the Twins with my first pick.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-110)
Call my crazy… but I’m going back to the Reds in this spot. Trevor Bauer will take the mound after a brutal finish to his season after being traded to the Reds at last year’s trade deadline. I’m going to predict Bauer produces this season. Not only do I think he produces, but I also think the bats will produce for the Reds in this one.
Spencer Turnbull will take the mound for the Tigers after going 3-17 last season. In day games, Turnbull went 0-10 in 13 starts and allowed 44 runs in 65.2 innings.
Saturday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $163.63!
Saturday, July 25th
Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs
Pick: Chicago Cubs -145
Kyle Hendricks pitched a complete game shutout in his first start against the Brewers. Now it’s Yu Darvish’s turn. Darvish went 1-0 in 10 innings, allowing one run while striking out 15 and walking one against the Brewers last season.
Meanwhile, Corbin Burns will take the hill for the Milwaukee Brewers. Burns hasn’t had any success in the majors throughout his career but looked solid in Spring Training 1.0. That helped him land a starting rotation spot.
However, he landed one last season too and lasted less than a month before he wound up back in the bullpen.
I love the Cubs at home and during the day. This team excels in that setting.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Reds -1.5 (-110)
This is probably the biggest mismatch in terms of pitchers on the slate. The Reds will pitch young stud Luis Castillo while the Tigers will elect to go with Ivan Nova who was not too good last season.
Castillo fared well at home, compiling an ERA of 3.15. During the day, he had an ERA of 3.22. The day + being home = success for Castillo. The Tigers have a right-handed heavy lineup and Castillo has shut them down. Last season righties hit just .194 against Castillo.
Nova, on the other hand, finished the season with a 4.72 ERA and struck out just 5.49 batters per nine innings. The Reds are coming off an eight-run game on Friday and should be able to carry that momentum over into this game.
There are some powerful hitters on the Reds who have already taken advantage of Nova in previous outings.
Saturday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $161.28!
Friday, July 24th
Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: St Louis Cardinals -1.5
The Cardinals will open up the season with Jack Flaherty on the mound. Flaherty went 11-8 in 33 games started last season in an exciting breakout season. He had an ERA of 2.75 and an FIP of 3.46 last season.
Flaherty will take on the Pittsburgh Pirates who lost 93 games last season. The Pirates aren’t any better this season as they’ll be pitching Joe Musgrove. Musgrove went 11-12 with a 4.44 ERA last season. He was a bit unlucky with balls in play but he doesn’t have the strikeout numbers compared to Flaherty.
Musgrove is 1-6 against the Cardinals with a 7.05 EA and a WHIP of 1.49. On the other hand Flaherty, is 4-1 against Pittsburgh with a 1.84 ERA and a WHIP of .93.
Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Indians
The Kansas City Royals will pitch Danny Duffy who went 7-6 with a 4.34 ERA. The Royals won just 59 games last season and lost 103. Duffy is 3-11 when facing the Indians with an ERA of 5.83 and a WHIP of 1.64, which is atrocious.
Meanwhile, Shane Bieber will take the mound for the Indians. He’s 3-0 against the Royals in five starts but also has a high ERA of 5.22 and a WHIP of 1.43.
All five of his starts have gone over the total against the Royals. If the game is going to go over, it’ll be because of the Indians bats against Duffy. Bieber was one of the better pitchers in the AL last year and should continue to find success tomorrow. That’s why I’ll stick with betting the over for the Indians on the team total.
Friday’s MLB Parlay: $50 wins $190.32!
Thursday, July 23rd
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals:
The Yankees and Nationals will open up the MLB season behind two of the more premier pitchers in the league. The Yankees will pitch Gerrit Cole who went 20-5 with a 2.50 ERA last season with the Houston Astros. After last season’s performance, he took his talents to New York and signed a huge contract.
On the other side, Max Scherzer will give it a go for the Nationals. Scherzer went 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA for the Nationals where he helped the team win a World Series. The Nationals have lost Anthony Rendon to the Angels via free agency and will rely on Juan Soto and a group of young players. The Yankees have a fierce lineup that could put a dent in any pitcher they face.
Another interesting play you can consider is under .5 (-143) in the first inning. You’d have to imagine both of these pitchers get through a scoreless inning to start.
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers:
Like the Yankees, the Dodgers are coming into this game as World Series contenders. The Dodgers added Mookie Betts to their lineup from the Boston Red Sox and are now looking to lock up the all-star outfielder for the rest of his career. Clayton Kershaw will give it a go for the Dodgers after going 16-5 with a 3.03 ERA while Johnny Cueto will start for the Giants.
Cueto was injured for most of last season but in four games played, Cueto had an ERA of 5.06 and a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 5.71. The Dodgers lineup is filled with talented super stars. The squad should have no problem getting to work early. Cueto is notorious for allowing home runs as he has allowed more than one homer per nine innings in his last three seasons.