Jason Radowitz looks at his favorite bets for over/under win totals in the power five conferences and the AAC.
College football is a little over a week away. This is an exciting time. Students are going back to college. That means college athletics returns. I don’t know about most of you, but I’d prefer college athletics over professional sports all day. The NFL and NBA can get way too predictable whereas college sports isn’t. (Unless we’re talking about the CFP.) But for the most part! We get to watch upsets that rarely ever happen in professional sports. I’ve already gave my pick on who will be the College Football National Champion and I picked two players who I believe have the best chance at winning the 2019 Heisman award. Click on the hyperlinks to go check those picks out.
Now, I’m dissecting six conferences, the Power 5 and the AAC. I’ll look at two teams in each conference and their projected win totals. I’ll give you my two best bets for each conference with one team going over and one team going under. This is Part 2 which features the Big 12, Pac-12, and the SEC. Part 1 included the AAC, ACC, and the Big Ten. Click here for that article.
Big 12 Over/Under Best Bets
West Virginia Mountaineers UNDER 5 +110
West Virginia lost their star quarterback Will Grier to the draft after an eight win season. They lost Dana Holgorsen to Houston. However, they did hire Neal Brown from Troy who will be a great hire. The defense is losing a ton of talent after last season due to graduation. It just feels like this season, with a new head coach and all, will look to hit the reset button and grow for next year. I don’t expect anything out of West Virginia this season and neither should you. Take the under here.
Oklahoma Sooners OVER 10.5 +130
It’s rough taking any team to win over 10.5 games on the season. But Oklahoma should do just that. The Sooners welcome transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts from Alabama, who has already won a national championship in college career. Last year’s team won 12 games with an abysmal defense. But they’ve hired a new defensive coordinator in Alex Grinch. I don’t think the defense can get worse. 11 wins seems legitimate this season for Oklahoma. Nobody can compete with the Sooners in the Big 12.
Pac-12 Over/Under Best Bets
UCLA Bruins UNDER 5.5 +115
Someone help me. I’m looking at the UCLA schedule and can’t figure out any potential scenario where they reach six wins. UCLA’s non-conference slate is not easy against Cincinnati, San Diego State and Oklahoma. They won’t win any of those three. In Pac-12 play, the only two teams I see UCLA winning are against Oregon State and Colorado. Maybe Arizona State and Arizona if I want to be generous. This line doesn’t make sense. Get the under as an underdog line.
Washington Huskies OVER 9.5 -105
I know. This season I’ve been a big Washington Huskies backer. Washington has destroyed conference play over the last three seasons, winning 78 percent of games in the conference. Jacob Eason is my underdog Heisman pick. Washington saw its ups and downs from Jake Browning. He’s going to be better. Washington consistently recruits NFL talent on the defense. Many players left this season for the draft, but Washington will just throw out another group of NFL potential players on the defense. USC, Utah, Oregon, and Washington State will go on the road to play the Huskies. 10 wins should be in the cards.
SEC Over/Under Best Bets
Kentucky Wildcats OVER 6.5 -140
Kentucky came out of nowhere last season to win 10 games on the season. Their star outside linebacker Josh Allen will no longer anchor the defense. There’s really no scenario where Kentucky wins 10 games again this season, but I don’t think they’ll regress to winning four less games. Look at Kentucky’s schedule. They’ll play (and win) against Toledo, Eastern Michigan, Louisville, and UT-Martin. I’d project them to get wins against Vanderbilt and Arkansas. A win against Tennessee and Kentucky has seven wins and win this bet.
Auburn Tigers UNDER 7.5 +100
Auburn had a season to forget last season under Jarrett Stidham. With high expectations, Auburn failed to capitalize. While Auburn hasn’t announced their starting quarterback for the season, it’s likely going to be five star freshman Bo Nix. Auburn got an unfavorable schedule having to play Alabama and Georgia at home, in which they’ll be double digit underdogs in both games. In their non-conference opener, they’ll have to face Justin Herbert and the Oregon Ducks. They’ll also play Texas A&M, Florida, and LSU on the road. Auburn’s offensive line was pretty bad last year. If they play the same way this season, Nix will be in trouble. I can’t see Auburn winning eight games under a freshman quarterback with an offensive line as bad as it is. Give me the under here.
If you’re looking for Jason Radowitz’s best bets for the AAC, ACC, and Big 10, click this link for the first half of his article.