Jason Radowitz looks at his favorite bets for over/under win totals in the power five conferences and the AAC.
College football is a little over a week away. This is an exciting time. Students are going back to college. That means college athletics returns. I don’t know about most of you, but I’d prefer college athletics over professional sports all day. The NFL and NBA can get way too predictable whereas college sports isn’t. (Unless we’re talking about the CFP.) But for the most part! We get to watch upsets that rarely ever happen in professional sports. I’ve already gave my pick on who will be the College Football National Champion and I picked two players who I believe have the best chance at winning the 2019 Heisman award. Click on the hyperlinks to go check those picks out.
Now, I’m dissecting six conferences, the Power 5 and the AAC. I’ll look at two teams in each conference and their projected win totals. I’ll give you my two best bets for each conference with one team going over and one team going under. Part 1 will include the AAC, ACC, and the Big Ten. Click here for Part 2 which features the Big 12, Pac-12, and the SEC.
AAC Over/Under Best Bets
Cincinnati Bearcats OVER 7.5 -110
Let’s be real for a second. The Bearcats could potentially be the best team in the AAC this season. They went 11-2 last season with quarterback Desmond Ridder along with running backs Michael Warren II and Gerrid Doaks, who missed all of last year with an injury. The defense also returns seven starters. The question remains how their offensive line will hold up after losing three seniors last season. Cincy will have a tough schedule against UCF, Temple, UCLA, Memphis and Houston. Three of those five games will be home. This is a good team with solid talent. I expect at least eight wins on the season.
Memphis Tigers UNDER 9.5 +110
There’s no question that Memphis has a ridiculous offense that’s capable of dropping points on their opponents every drive. On top of that, Memphis gets to play two road games against teams in the SunBelt. Brady White is back for another season after throwing for 26 touchdowns and nine interceptions. They have Damonte Coxie at receiver and one of the best running backs in college football in Patrick Taylor Jr.
But what about Memphis’ defense? They allowed 37 points to Wake Forest, 56 points to UCF, and another 31 to Houston. Memphis won eight games last season. I expect the same. And even if they get another win, that still won’t be enough!
ACC Over/Under Best Bets
Syracuse Orange OVER 7.5 -150
You’re going to want to shop around for this one on different sites! I found -150 on FanDuel. I don’t mind paying up for a team like Syracuse. If you looked at the over/under in June, Syracuse win total was projected at 5.5. It’s now jumped to 7.5 and I STILL like the over. Syracuse will swap quarterback Eric Dungey for Tommy DeVito this season but they’ll return four of their five wide receivers on a team that won 10 games last season. Syracuse was a drive away from defeating Clemson. The defense will need to improve but let’s get this straight, Cuse is for real. Once they beat Maryland in Week 2 of the college football season, Cuse will be an easy lock for the over here.
Duke Blue Devils UNDER 5.5 -110
Daniel Jones, the former quarterback for Duke, has been drafted by the New York Giants. Yes, many people hated that pick. Jones’ stats weren’t very good. Why? Because he was playing with players not nearly as talented as himself. Take Daniel Jones away from the mix … and Duke is not looking too good. Duke has non-conference games against Alabama and Notre Dame. They’ll also have to play Virginia, Miami, Syracuse to name a few. Duke’s offense will be worse without Jones. Their defense wasn’t ever that good. I’m content with the under here.
BIG TEN Over/Under Best Bets
Northwestern Wildcats OVER 6 -160
With Urban Meyer out of the Big 10 picture, it just seems like the Big 10 is more wide open than in recent years. Northwestern just recently won the Big Ten West division. They’ve had three straight years of nine or more wins. Northwestern will have a new quarterback this season in Hunter Johnson, a five-star quarterback recruit. Northwestern has always been known for a solid defense. They’ll have a tough schedule to begin the season against Stanford, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Ohio State. As long as Northwestern wins two of those first five games, they’ll end up with at least seven wins. Northwestern needs some more respect.
Indiana Hoosiers UNDER 6 +125
Just look at Indiana’s schedule. This one should be easy. They have three non-conference games that they’ll easily win. Then looking into Big Ten play, the only team Indiana has a chance to beat would be Rutgers. They have road games against Michigan State, Maryland, Nebraska, Penn State and Purdue and they’re home against Ohio State, Northwestern, and Michigan. I mean … enough said.
Even if they’re able to sneak another win against a Big Ten opponent, it won’t be enough! +125? That’s the value we’re looking for.
If you’re looking for Jason Radowitz’s best bets for the Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC, click this link for the second half of his article.