College Football Week 9: Best Bets & Analysis for this Weekend’s Top 25 Games

After a demoralizing upset against Indiana, Jason Radowitz breaks down whether or not Penn State has a chance to rebound and upset Ohio State in a Big Ten ranked match-up.

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(5) Georgia vs Kentucky Saturday, Oct 31 at 12:00pm EST, SECN

Georgia hasn’t played since their loss to Alabama on October 17. Now they’ll get back to action against a Kentucky team that has looked good at times and has looked bad other times.

Georgia is led by Stetson Bennett who has thrown for 958 yards and seven touchdowns. He also has three interceptions on the year, which all came against Alabama in their loss.

Bennett has protected the ball outside of games against Alabama and has shown signs of excellence in the pocket. His completion percentage has took a hit but his QB rating and QBR has been very good all season long.

The Georgia rushing attack is led by Zamir White who has five touchdowns on the season. However, he’s only averaging 4.2 yards per carry. You’d expect that to be higher this season.

Georgia is gaining 418.5 yards per game offensively but only 165.3 yards have come on the ground. Kentucky’s defense has allowed 357 yards per game. Their rushing defense has been reliable, allowing just 129 yards per game on the ground.

Georgia’s got the best defense in the SEC. They’ve allowed 19.5 points per game but without Alabama’s outburst, that number is way different. They’re shutting down the run, which is what Kentucky does so well with.

Kentucky is running for 183.8 yards per game but only passing for 124 points per game. When Georgia stops the run, Kentucky will have nowhere to go.

NCAAF Pick: Georgia -17 (-109) via Draftkings

Texas vs (6) Oklahoma State Saturday, Oct 31 at 4pm EST, FOX

Oklahoma State is now 4-0 on the season behind a couple offensive leaders in Spencer Sanders and Chuba Hubbard.

Sanders came back from injury last week and defeated Iowa State with 235 yards passing and a touchdown. Sanders had two interceptions but wasn’t sacked once and completed nearly 70 percent of his passes.

Sanders also ran the ball 15 times for 71 yards for an average of 4.7 yards per carry. He scored a touchdown on the ground as well.

But that’s not the only rushing attack that Oklahoma State has. Oklahoma State features one of the best running backs in college football with Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season and has five touchdowns in four games.

Texas has played solid against the run on defense allowing just 130.4 yards per game but Oklahoma State’s offense is just different. OSU gets 420 yards per game on offense with 216 coming on the ground. Texas has been much worse in the air with their secondary but the Oklahoma State running game will open up the passing game and really hurt Texas’ chances to win this game.

After all, Texas has allowed 32.2 points per game on defense. Of course, Texas also scores 45 points per game on offense behind Sam Ehlinger. The Longhorns defeated Baylor by double-digits, which came as a surprised to many, including myself.

Texas averages 482 yards per game on offense. Ehlinger has thrown for 17 touchdowns in five games and also has rushed for seven touchdowns. He’s been doing it all but the reality is, Oklahoma State’s defense will be his toughest challenge this season.

He’s made five mistakes (interceptions) this season and he’ll likely throw another one or two in this one.

NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5 (-113) via Draftkings

(3) Ohio State vs (18) Penn State Saturday, Oct 31 at 7:30pm EST, ABC

By now you’ve heard about Penn State’s upset loss to Indiana. Maybe Penn State should’ve won that game. Maybe Indiana didn’t convert their two point conversion. Maybe they did. It’s hard to tell. We all have our opinions.

But how was Indiana even in this game against Penn State?

Penn State had 488 yards on offense and allowed just 211 yards on defense and lost 36-35.

Penn State, minus two interceptions from Sean Clifford and a Penn State fumble, were easily the better football team. They had 6.8 yards per pass compared to Indiana’s 4.7 yards per pass.

They averaged 4.8 yards per rush compared to Indiana’s 1.8 yards per rush.

Indiana turned the ball over twice while Penn State turned it over three times.

Penn State had 40 minutes of possession while Indiana had 20 minutes of possession.

Yet, Indiana won.

Penn State will make turnovers against Ohio State. Ohio State forced two turnovers from Nebraska in their first win of the season with one fumble and a touchdown off of a fumble.

And while Ohio State won 52-17, it was a bit of an underwhelming performance from Ohio State. Just one turnover against Nebraska isn’t good enough.

Ohio State ran the ball for just 4.5 yards per carry but allowed Nebraska run for 5.8 yards per carry.

Penn State will have running room in this game. They showed that they can run the ball against Indiana and do it well.

Justin Fields was fantastic for Ohio State. He went 20-21 with 276 yards passing and two scores. But the rest of the team was underwhelming, even in a 52-17 game.

Penn State will come into this game with a chip on their shoulder. They’re going to be out there looking to prove something. Penn State won’t win this football game, but the rushing game, on both sides of the ball, favors Penn State.

They’ll be in this game throughout.

NCAAF Pick: Penn State +11.5 -113 via DraftKings

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