In the biggest week of college football yet, Jason Radowitz gives you his five best bets for the most popular games in Week 11.
CFB: 25-16 ATS – 61%
(4) Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0) @ (17) Minnesota Gophers (8-0) 12pm EST on ABCΒ
Saturday weβve got a couple undefeated teams facing off. Minnesota has cruised past their schedule going 8-0, but their competition hasnβt been close to Penn Stateβs undefeated start. Head Coach P.J. Fleck of Minnesota just got his contract extended after putting together the best start in Minnesota history.
Penn Stateβs run defense is one of the best in the nation. They have speed, a pass rush, and playmaking ability. If the season were to end today, theyβd be playing Ohio State in the semifinals of the National Championship. Theyβre no joke. Theyβve faced Michiganβs run defense and had tons of success defensively against the run. They allow less than two yards per carry and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season.
Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well against their opponents recently, running for 300 yards or more in three of their last four games. It wonβt happen against Penn State.
Minnesota will need their own defense to step up against an average Penn State offense. Minnesota needs to have possession of the ball longer and have methodical drives. If you think Minnesota has a chance to win this game, you can take the UNDER in this game.
Penn State, as a National Championship contender, will get this win. Theyβll win by a couple scores. Give me Penn State -7.Β
(12) Baylor Bears (8-0) vs TCU Horned Frogs (4-4) 12:00PM EST on FS1
More undefeated action! Baylor, won a tight one last time out against West Virginia on Friday. Theyβll have an extra day to prepare for this one against TCU.
TCU has lost three of their last four games, but theyβre capable to ruining any winning streak and winning any game. The key to this game is Baylorβs pass rush. TCU has been very bad in pass protection while Baylor has been really good.
On the other hand, Charlie Brewer of Baylor has been spectacular throwing for 2143 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. Heβs getting it done while getting hit hard recently. He wonβt have to worry much here as TCU struggles getting to the quarterback.
Baylor has forced 15 turnovers in eight games this season. TCU knows how to give the ball up too. As long as Baylor holds on to the ball and makes good decisions. Baylor should stay undefeated this week. Take Baylor -2.
(2) LSU Tigers (8-0) @ (3) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) 3:30pm EST on CBS
The moment weβve all been waiting for! LSU vs Alabama! Joe Burrow vs Tua Tagovailoa β¦ or is he playing?
Tua sprained his ankle and is questionable for this one. Most sources believe heβll play Saturday even if heβs not 100 percent. But thatβs something to look at moving forward. If Tua canβt play, Alabama will rely on Mac Jones who had the bye week to prepare and should be ready to go.
LSUβs offense has been one of the best in the nation. But when LSU faces Alabama, things change. But letβs be real. This season, LSU offense isnβt what LSU offense used to be. Itβs better. Alabamaβs defense isnβt what it used to be. Itβs worse.
LSU has faced three top-10 opponents this season, winning all three contests. Alabama? Well, this is really their first test. Joe Burrow threw 76% completions and 321 yards against a fantastic Auburn defense. He also destroyed Floridaβs fantastic defense throwing for 78% completions for 327 yards and four touchdowns.
LSU has what Clemson had last year offensively. They can turn out the lights quickly in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama hasnβt played anyone yet. But theyβre still third in the nation. If the season ended today, Alabama would be playing LSU in the semifinals of the National Championship.
LSUβs defense has struggled at times. Theyβve allowed Texasβ Sam Ehlinger to throw for 409 yards and four touchdowns. New quarterbacks Kyle Trask and Bo Nix didnβt play awful either (although they didnβt play well enough.)
Nix and Trask are not Tua. Tua has one of the best receiving corps in the country (close with LSU). Donβt expect this one to be a defensive battle. This could become a shootout. The team with the ball last might just win this one. Give me the points with LSU, if thatβs the case. LSU +6.5 please.
(16) Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) vs Texas Longhorns (5-3) 3:30pm EST on ESPN
People had Texas going to the National Championship pre-season. They had Texas QB Sam Ehlinger winning the Heisman. Yikes. Texas has struggled in the last three weeks due to turnovers. Their secondary, which claimed to be DBU against LSU has been scary bad.
Texas is last in the Big 12 in sacks. Kansas Stateβs Skylar Thompson has only thrown one interception all season and has been hitting some big plays down the field.
Listen to this stat – When Kansas State runs for 200 yards or more theyβre 4-0. Texas has allowed 200 yards or more in three of their last five games.
Texas, after a brutal middle part of the season, will need to rely on a heavy dose of Sam Ehlinger. Kansas State will hold onto the ball for a large portion of this game. When Ehlinger gets his chances, heβll have to convert. I donβt trust Texas anymore this season. Kansas State has been inconsistent against the spread, but theyβre coming off a big win against in-state rivals Kansas. I donβt think the momentum changes. +7 to Kansas State for me.
(18) Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) vs (13) Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) 4pm EST on FOX
I think we all expected these two teams to be in the Top 10 at this point. Iowa started the year well and then tumbled. Same with Wisconsin who had a major hiccup against Illinois.
Both defenses have been consistent. Itβs the offenses that havenβt. Iowa kept Penn State and Michigan to a decent total in yards, especially on the ground. Iowa wonβt get pressure on the QBβs but they limit big plays. It allows them to get off the field. They might bend but they donβt break.
Wisconsinβs defensive front got pushed around by Ohio State but it wonβt happen against Iowa. Iowa had just ONE rushing yard against Michigan and has reached over 125 yards just once in the last six games.
Wisconsinβs offense will need to prove themselves again. Theyβll have to get back to badger football and just get points on the board like they did earlier in the season.
Wisconsin leads the nation in time of possession. The UNDER is intriguing. But Iβll stick to the spread. This game should be a close defensive battle. I think Wisconsin gets the win, but not by 10. Give me Iowa +9.5 in this one.