In the biggest week of college football yet, Jason Radowitz gives you his five best bets for the most popular games in Week 11.
CFB: 25-16 ATS – 61%
(4) Penn State Nittany Lions (8-0) @ (17) Minnesota Gophers (8-0) 12pm EST on ABC
Saturday we’ve got a couple undefeated teams facing off. Minnesota has cruised past their schedule going 8-0, but their competition hasn’t been close to Penn State’s undefeated start. Head Coach P.J. Fleck of Minnesota just got his contract extended after putting together the best start in Minnesota history.
Penn State’s run defense is one of the best in the nation. They have speed, a pass rush, and playmaking ability. If the season were to end today, they’d be playing Ohio State in the semifinals of the National Championship. They’re no joke. They’ve faced Michigan’s run defense and had tons of success defensively against the run. They allow less than two yards per carry and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns all season.
Minnesota has been running the ball extremely well against their opponents recently, running for 300 yards or more in three of their last four games. It won’t happen against Penn State.
Minnesota will need their own defense to step up against an average Penn State offense. Minnesota needs to have possession of the ball longer and have methodical drives. If you think Minnesota has a chance to win this game, you can take the UNDER in this game.
Penn State, as a National Championship contender, will get this win. They’ll win by a couple scores. Give me Penn State -7.
(12) Baylor Bears (8-0) vs TCU Horned Frogs (4-4) 12:00PM EST on FS1
More undefeated action! Baylor, won a tight one last time out against West Virginia on Friday. They’ll have an extra day to prepare for this one against TCU.
TCU has lost three of their last four games, but they’re capable to ruining any winning streak and winning any game. The key to this game is Baylor’s pass rush. TCU has been very bad in pass protection while Baylor has been really good.
On the other hand, Charlie Brewer of Baylor has been spectacular throwing for 2143 yards, 14 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He’s getting it done while getting hit hard recently. He won’t have to worry much here as TCU struggles getting to the quarterback.
Baylor has forced 15 turnovers in eight games this season. TCU knows how to give the ball up too. As long as Baylor holds on to the ball and makes good decisions. Baylor should stay undefeated this week. Take Baylor -2.
(2) LSU Tigers (8-0) @ (3) Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) 3:30pm EST on CBS
Tua sprained his ankle and is questionable for this one. Most sources believe he’ll play Saturday even if he’s not 100 percent. But that’s something to look at moving forward. If Tua can’t play, Alabama will rely on Mac Jones who had the bye week to prepare and should be ready to go.
LSU’s offense has been one of the best in the nation. But when LSU faces Alabama, things change. But let’s be real. This season, LSU offense isn’t what LSU offense used to be. It’s better. Alabama’s defense isn’t what it used to be. It’s worse.
LSU has faced three top-10 opponents this season, winning all three contests. Alabama? Well, this is really their first test. Joe Burrow threw 76% completions and 321 yards against a fantastic Auburn defense. He also destroyed Florida’s fantastic defense throwing for 78% completions for 327 yards and four touchdowns.
LSU has what Clemson had last year offensively. They can turn out the lights quickly in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama hasn’t played anyone yet. But they’re still third in the nation. If the season ended today, Alabama would be playing LSU in the semifinals of the National Championship.
LSU’s defense has struggled at times. They’ve allowed Texas’ Sam Ehlinger to throw for 409 yards and four touchdowns. New quarterbacks Kyle Trask and Bo Nix didn’t play awful either (although they didn’t play well enough.)
Nix and Trask are not Tua. Tua has one of the best receiving corps in the country (close with LSU). Don’t expect this one to be a defensive battle. This could become a shootout. The team with the ball last might just win this one. Give me the points with LSU, if that’s the case. LSU +6.5 please.
(16) Kansas State Wildcats (6-2) vs Texas Longhorns (5-3) 3:30pm EST on ESPN
People had Texas going to the National Championship pre-season. They had Texas QB Sam Ehlinger winning the Heisman. Yikes. Texas has struggled in the last three weeks due to turnovers. Their secondary, which claimed to be DBU against LSU has been scary bad.
Texas is last in the Big 12 in sacks. Kansas State’s Skylar Thompson has only thrown one interception all season and has been hitting some big plays down the field.
Listen to this stat – When Kansas State runs for 200 yards or more they’re 4-0. Texas has allowed 200 yards or more in three of their last five games.
Texas, after a brutal middle part of the season, will need to rely on a heavy dose of Sam Ehlinger. Kansas State will hold onto the ball for a large portion of this game. When Ehlinger gets his chances, he’ll have to convert. I don’t trust Texas anymore this season. Kansas State has been inconsistent against the spread, but they’re coming off a big win against in-state rivals Kansas. I don’t think the momentum changes. +7 to Kansas State for me.
(18) Iowa Hawkeyes (6-2) vs (13) Wisconsin Badgers (6-2) 4pm EST on FOX
I think we all expected these two teams to be in the Top 10 at this point. Iowa started the year well and then tumbled. Same with Wisconsin who had a major hiccup against Illinois.
Both defenses have been consistent. It’s the offenses that haven’t. Iowa kept Penn State and Michigan to a decent total in yards, especially on the ground. Iowa won’t get pressure on the QB’s but they limit big plays. It allows them to get off the field. They might bend but they don’t break.
Wisconsin’s defensive front got pushed around by Ohio State but it won’t happen against Iowa. Iowa had just ONE rushing yard against Michigan and has reached over 125 yards just once in the last six games.
Wisconsin’s offense will need to prove themselves again. They’ll have to get back to badger football and just get points on the board like they did earlier in the season.
Wisconsin leads the nation in time of possession. The UNDER is intriguing. But I’ll stick to the spread. This game should be a close defensive battle. I think Wisconsin gets the win, but not by 10. Give me Iowa +9.5 in this one.