Week 9
Kevin Davis College Football Saturday Best Bets
With a full slate of college football games this Saturday, there are many great college football games to choose among. My favorite bets for this weekend are Clemson -24, UCF -2.5, Southern Mississippi -1.5, and for Over 73 points to be scored in the LSU/Auburn game (+240).
Saturday, October 31st
Boston College at Clemson (#1) (12:00 PM ABC)
Pick: Clemson -24
Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is going to miss Saturday’s game against BC. Clemson opened the week as 31.5 point favorites before the COVID news, but have since dropped to being favored by only 24 points. Currently 71% of bets have been placed on BC based on the Lawrence news, but I believe the betting public is wrong. While Clemson is certainly worse off without Lawrence, they have more than enough weapons to blow out BC. That is why I am backing Clemson as 24-point favorites based on the betting public overreacting to the Lawrence news.
UCF at Houston (2:00 PM ESPN+)
Pick: UCF -2.5
One month ago, it would have been almost unthinkable to bet against UCF. For the last few years, UCF has been one of the best group of five programs. Typically, UCF could be counted on to cover the spread by more than a touchdown. However, UCF has not been as dominant this year. Despite UCF not being as dominant, I still think that they are one of the best teams in the AAC. Last week UCF beat Tulane 51-34, and earlier in the season they beat ECU and Georgia Tech by three or more touchdowns. I think UCF will not only win, but they are likely to win by at least one touchdown. That is why I am betting on them to cover a 2.5 point spread.
Rice at Southern Mississippi (3:00 PM ESPN3)
Pick: Southern Miss -1.5
Last week Rice finally started their season with a 40-34 double overtime loss against Middle Tennessee. Opposing Rice is a struggling Southern Miss team who is 1-4. On paper both teams are equally as bad, however Rice is a much worse team. Last season Rice finished with a 3-9 record, and against Middle Tennessee they lost as four point favorites. In contrast to Rice, Southern Miss is having an usually bad year as they are typically a winning team. What is important to note about Southern Miss is that three out of their four losses were against teams that would easily beat Rice by at least two touchdowns. I believe that Rice is a much worse team than people believe, and that is why I think that betting on Southern Miss to cover a 1.5 spread is a great bet.
LSU at Auburn (3:30 PM CBS)
Pick: Over 73 Points (+240 or +314 Boosted)
Sugarhouse and BetRivers have a promotion for each day between October 30th and November. The promotion is that they are giving each bettor two 31% profit boosts each day, one for a pregame bet and another for a live bet. The best way to fully optimize a profit boost is to use it on a longshot as there is more profit to be multiplied. That is why I am using my profit boost on boosting the over 73 points alternate total on the LSU/Auburn game from +240 to +314. Anytime LSU is involved in a game, there is a lot of scoring taking place. On average, 72 combined points are scored in a typical LSU game. It is not unreasonable to bet on over 73 points to be scored in Saturday night’s game.
Saturday’s College Football Bet Slip:
$50 Clemson -24 Pays $95.50
$50 Southern Miss -1.5 Pays $95.50
$50 UCF Pays $95.45
$50 LSU/Auburn Pays $136 or $207.20 with Boost
Week 8
With a full slate of college football games this Saturday, there are many great college football games to choose among. My favorite bets for this weekend are the NC State Moneyline (+490), NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Points (-105), Tulane Moneyline (+750), Boise State -17 (-108), and Air Force -7 (-110).
Saturday, October 24th
NC State (#23) at North Carolina (#14) (12:00 PM ESPN)
Pick 1: NC State Moneyline +490
Pick 2: NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Points (-105)
On Saturday afternoon, the 14th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels host the 23rd ranked NC State Wolf Pack. Typically, when ranked teams face each other, the best team is favored by a touchdown or less. However, for Saturday’s game UNC is favored by 16 points. UNC should be favored by less than a touchdown, because of how good both teams are. Additionally, UNC lost last week as 13.5 point favorites against Florida State. When you factor in NC State’s rushing offense and UNC’s weak rushing defense, win or lose I think that NC State will score at least 22 points. That is why I am betting on NC State to win outright at +490 moneyline odds, and for them to go over their 21.5 team total at -105 odds.
Tulane at UCF (2:00 PM ESPN2)
Pick: Tulane Moneyline +750
One month ago, it would have been almost unthinkable to bet against UCF. For the last few years, UCF has been one of the best group of five programs. Not only was the UCF moneyline usually a lock over the last few years, but they could be counted on to cover the spread by more than a touchdown. However, UCF has lost their last two games despite being favored. Last week they lost as three-point favorites against Memphis after a missed field goal to end the game. In their previous game, UCF lost to Tulsa despite being a 20.5-point favorite. Against Tulane, UCF is favored by 20-points. While UCF should be favored against Tulane, they could still possibly lose. Tulane runs a hybrid of a triple option offense and they could catch an unprepared UCF team. There is a plausible chance that Tulane wins and that is why I am backing them to win outright at +750 moneyline odds.
Utah State at Boise State (7:00 PM FS1)
Pick: Boise State -17 (-108)
On Saturday night, Mountain West football returns. While it is tempting to avoid all Mountain West games altogether, there are plenty of great bets that can be made. One of the most intriguing games from a betting perspective is the game between Utah State and Boise State. On the surface, it is efficiently priced as Boise State is favored by 17 points. However, Boise State should be favored by even more because of their tendency to run up the score against weaker teams. Boise State is always competing with American Conference schools for the one group of five slot for New Year’s day bowl games and they are currently unranked. If they blow out Utah State, then they are likely to be ranked next week. That is why I am backing the Boise State spread even at 17 points.
Air Force at San Jose State (10:30 PM FS1)
Pick: Air Force -7 (-110)
Air Force is the only Mountain West team to play this season, and in their one win they proved that they are a dangerous team this year. Air Force beat Navy 40-7 despite being 6.5 point underdogs. In that game, Air Force’s triple option offense had 369 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and they averaged seven yards per rush. I expect Air Force to replicate their success against a San Jose State team which gave up the 5th most rushing yards per game out of all 130 FBS teams last year. Air Force should be favored by at least 11 points, and that is why I am betting on the Air Force spread at seven points.
Saturday’s College Football Moneyline Underdog Bet Slip:
$50 NC State Moneyline Pays $245
$50 NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Pays $97.50
$50 Tulane Moneyline Pays $425
$50 Boise State -17 Pays $46.50
$50 Air Force -7 Pays $95.45
Week 7
Kevin Davis analyzes Saturday’s College Football slate and shares his best bets for us to tail.
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With a full slate of college football games this Saturday, there are many great college football games to choose among. My favorite bets for this weekend are the Syracuse alternate point spread -13.5 (+425), Arkansas Moneyline (+110), Marshall 1st half point spread -7 (-115), and the Georgia Southern team total under 47.5 points (-110)
Saturday, October 17th
Liberty at Syracuse (12:00 PM ESPN3)
Pick: Syracuse Alternate Point Spread -13.5 (+425)
The 1-3 Syracuse Orange host the 4-0 Liberty Flames. On the surface Liberty should win as a three-point favorite based on their record alone. However, Liberty is an FBS independent who plays primarily minor conference opponents. In contrast to Liberty, Syracuse plays in the ACC and Liberty is their only non-conference opponent this season. Syracuse has a strong defense and a developing offense. While I am tempted to back the Syracuse moneyline at +132 odds, I think the smarter bet is to bet on their alternate point spread at 13.5 points at +425 odds.
Ole Miss at Arkansas (3:30 PM SEC Network)
Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks Moneyline +110
Two weeks ago, the Arkansas Razorbacks shocked college football by beating Mississippi State outright as 17-point underdogs. Last week Arkansas faced off against the Auburn as 14-point underdogs and lost by only two points. This week they are slight underdogs against Ole Miss and I think that they are going to win. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas are better teams this year, but Arkansas is the more improved team. I believe that the Arkansas defense can contain the high-powered Ole Miss offense. That is why I am backing Arkansas as +110 moneyline underdogs.
UMass at Georgia Southern (4:00 PM ESPN2)
Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Under 47.5 Points -110
On paper the game between UMass and Georgia Southern this Saturday is going to be very boring. UMass is arguably the worst FBS football program and they make their season debut as 31-point underdogs at Georgia Southern. While the game itself is going to be boring, from a betting perspective it is one of the weekends most fascinating games. UMass as an FBS independent has no games scheduled this season. Their plan is to play teams whose opponents cancel because of COVID. Georgia Southern’s opponent this week Appalachian State cancelled and were replaced by UMass.
While UMass is a doormat of an opponent, I think they hold Georgia Southern to under 47.5 points. Georgia Southern runs a conservative offense with mainly running plays and short passes. While Georgia Southern should easily win, they will have a difficult time scoring 48 or more points. That is why I am betting that Georgia Southern goes under their team total of 47.5 points at -110 odds.
Marshall at Louisiana Tech (6:00 PM CBS Sports Network)
Pick: Marshall 1st Half Point Spread -7 (-115)
On Saturday Night, the 3-1 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs host the 3-0 Marshall Thundering Herd. In that game I think Marshall will easily cover the spread as 13.5 point favorites. However, the better bet in my opinion is to bet that they will cover the 1st half spread of only seven points. Marshall as an undefeated group of five school is going to try and finish the season undefeated to play in a New Years day bowl game. In their last game Marshall led at halftime by 28 points but won by only 24 points. I think there is a chance that Marshall gets a comfortable lead and does not mind giving up an extra touchdown late in the fourth quarter. That is why I feel more comfortable backing their 1st half spread than their full game spread.
Saturday’s College Football Moneyline Underdog Bet Slip:
$50 Syracuse -13.5 Alternate Spread Pays $262.50
$50 Arkansas Moneyline Pays $105
$50 Georgia Southern Team Total Under 47.5 Points Pays $95.45
$50 Marshall -7 1st Half Point Spread Pays $93.48
