College Football Saturday’s Best Bets

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College Football Week 8: Best Bets & Analysis for this Weekend’s Top 25 Games

We've got some quality football on Saturday. The Big Ten and Mountain West have returned to action. It would be fun betting on those games, however, we've got no data for either conference. Luckily, there are three ranked games on the slate in other major conferences to look at.

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Kevin Davis
Kevin Davis is an NYC-based sports bettor who travels to New Jersey to lay his legal sports bets. He is a former elected official, who is also a fourth-generation sports handicapper. As a sports handicapper Davis focuses on international baseball, MLB, NBA, College Football, and Canadian Football. Davis is an analytical sports bettor who builds his own mathematical models for betting on sports. He is a profitable sports bettor who enjoys sharing his insights with aspiring sports handicappers.

Week 8

With a full slate of college football games this Saturday, there are many great college football games to choose among. My favorite bets for this weekend are the NC State Moneyline (+490), NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Points (-105), Tulane Moneyline (+750), Boise State -17 (-108), and Air Force -7 (-110).

Saturday, October 24th 

NC State (#23) at North Carolina (#14) (12:00 PM ESPN)

Pick 1: NC State Moneyline +490

Pick 2: NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Points (-105)

On Saturday afternoon, the 14th ranked North Carolina Tar Heels host the 23rd ranked NC State Wolf Pack. Typically, when ranked teams face each other, the best team is favored by a touchdown or less. However, for Saturday’s game UNC is favored by 16 points. UNC should be favored by less than a touchdown, because of how good both teams are. Additionally, UNC lost last week as 13.5 point favorites against Florida State. When you factor in NC State’s rushing offense and UNC’s weak rushing defense, win or lose I think that NC State will score at least 22 points. That is why I am betting on NC State to win outright at +490 moneyline odds, and for them to go over their 21.5 team total at -105 odds.

Tulane at UCF (2:00 PM ESPN2)

Pick: Tulane Moneyline +750

One month ago, it would have been almost unthinkable to bet against UCF. For the last few years, UCF has been one of the best group of five programs. Not only was the UCF moneyline usually a lock over the last few years, but they could be counted on to cover the spread by more than a touchdown. However, UCF has lost their last two games despite being favored. Last week they lost as three-point favorites against Memphis after a missed field goal to end the game. In their previous game, UCF lost to Tulsa despite being a 20.5-point favorite. Against Tulane, UCF is favored by 20-points. While UCF should be favored against Tulane, they could still possibly lose. Tulane runs a hybrid of a triple option offense and they could catch an unprepared UCF team. There is a plausible chance that Tulane wins and that is why I am backing them to win outright at +750 moneyline odds.

Utah State at Boise State (7:00 PM FS1)

Pick: Boise State -17 (-108)

On Saturday night, Mountain West football returns. While it is tempting to avoid all Mountain West games altogether, there are plenty of great bets that can be made. One of the most intriguing games from a betting perspective is the game between Utah State and Boise State. On the surface, it is efficiently priced as Boise State is favored by 17 points. However, Boise State should be favored by even more because of their tendency to run up the score against weaker teams. Boise State is always competing with American Conference schools for the one group of five slot for New Year’s day bowl games and they are currently unranked. If they blow out Utah State, then they are likely to be ranked next week. That is why I am backing the Boise State spread even at 17 points.

Air Force at San Jose State (10:30 PM FS1)

Pick: Air Force -7 (-110)

Air Force is the only Mountain West team to play this season, and in their one win they proved that they are a dangerous team this year. Air Force beat Navy 40-7 despite being 6.5 point underdogs. In that game, Air Force’s triple option offense had 369 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and they averaged seven yards per rush. I expect Air Force to replicate their success against a San Jose State team which gave up the 5th most rushing yards per game out of all 130 FBS teams last year. Air Force should be favored by at least 11 points, and that is why I am betting on the Air Force spread at seven points.

Saturday’s College Football Moneyline Underdog Bet Slip:

$50 NC State Moneyline Pays $245

$50 NC State Team Total Over 21.5 Pays $97.50

$50 Tulane Moneyline Pays $425

$50 Boise State -17 Pays $46.50

$50 Air Force -7 Pays $95.45

Week 7

Kevin Davis analyzes Saturday’s College Football slate and shares his best bets for us to tail.

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With a full slate of college football games this Saturday, there are many great college football games to choose among. My favorite bets for this weekend are the Syracuse alternate point spread -13.5 (+425), Arkansas Moneyline (+110), Marshall 1st half point spread -7 (-115), and the Georgia Southern team total under 47.5 points (-110)

Saturday, October 17th 

Liberty at Syracuse (12:00 PM ESPN3)

Pick: Syracuse Alternate Point Spread -13.5 (+425)

The 1-3 Syracuse Orange host the 4-0 Liberty Flames. On the surface Liberty should win as a three-point favorite based on their record alone. However, Liberty is an FBS independent who plays primarily minor conference opponents. In contrast to Liberty, Syracuse plays in the ACC and Liberty is their only non-conference opponent this season. Syracuse has a strong defense and a developing offense. While I am tempted to back the Syracuse moneyline at +132 odds, I think the smarter bet is to bet on their alternate point spread at 13.5 points at +425 odds.

Ole Miss at Arkansas (3:30 PM SEC Network)

Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks Moneyline +110

Two weeks ago, the Arkansas Razorbacks shocked college football by beating Mississippi State outright as 17-point underdogs. Last week Arkansas faced off against the Auburn as 14-point underdogs and lost by only two points. This week they are slight underdogs against Ole Miss and I think that they are going to win. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas are better teams this year, but Arkansas is the more improved team. I believe that the Arkansas defense can contain the high-powered Ole Miss offense. That is why I am backing Arkansas as +110 moneyline underdogs.

UMass at Georgia Southern (4:00 PM ESPN2)

Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Under 47.5 Points -110

On paper the game between UMass and Georgia Southern this Saturday is going to be very boring. UMass is arguably the worst FBS football program and they make their season debut as 31-point underdogs at Georgia Southern. While the game itself is going to be boring, from a betting perspective it is one of the weekends most fascinating games. UMass as an FBS independent has no games scheduled this season. Their plan is to play teams whose opponents cancel because of COVID. Georgia Southern’s opponent this week Appalachian State cancelled and were replaced by UMass.

While UMass is a doormat of an opponent, I think they hold Georgia Southern to under 47.5 points. Georgia Southern runs a conservative offense with mainly running plays and short passes. While Georgia Southern should easily win, they will have a difficult time scoring 48 or more points. That is why I am betting that Georgia Southern goes under their team total of 47.5 points at -110 odds.

Marshall at Louisiana Tech (6:00 PM CBS Sports Network)

Pick: Marshall 1st Half Point Spread -7 (-115)

On Saturday Night, the 3-1 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs host the 3-0 Marshall Thundering Herd. In that game I think Marshall will easily cover the spread as 13.5 point favorites. However, the better bet in my opinion is to bet that they will cover the 1st half spread of only seven points. Marshall as an undefeated group of five school is going to try and finish the season undefeated to play in a New Years day bowl game. In their last game Marshall led at halftime by 28 points but won by only 24 points. I think there is a chance that Marshall gets a comfortable lead and does not mind giving up an extra touchdown late in the fourth quarter. That is why I feel more comfortable backing their 1st half spread than their full game spread.

Saturday’s College Football Moneyline Underdog Bet Slip:

$50 Syracuse -13.5 Alternate Spread Pays $262.50

$50 Arkansas Moneyline Pays $105

$50 Georgia Southern Team Total Under 47.5 Points Pays $95.45

$50 Marshall -7 1st Half Point Spread Pays $93.48

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