With a full slate of college football games this weekend, there are many great college football underdogs to choose among. My favorite moneyline underdogs for this weekend are for Louisiana-Monroe (+600) to beat Liberty and for Arkansas (+520) to beat Auburn.
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Saturday, October 10th
Louisiana-Monroe at Liberty
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Moneyline +600
The 3-0 Liberty Flames host the 0-4 Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks in a game that is expected to be uneventful. While Liberty certainly should be favored to beat Louisiana-Monroe, their performance so far this season does not merit making them 17.5 point favorites. Liberty has been able to pad their record by playing only cupcakes, and that is why they look much better on paper than they are. While in the first game this season, they beat Western Kentucky as 15-point underdogs, they failed to cover the spread in their following two wins against FIU and North Alabama.
In contrast to Liberty, Louisiana-Monroe played their first game against a formidable Army team and lost 37-7. In their following two games they lost to two cupcakes by three touchdowns or more in UTEP and Texas State. While Louisiana-Monroe performed poorly during their first three games, they surprisingly put it together in the last game only losing to a formidable Georgia Southern team 35-30. In that game the Louisiana-Monroe quarterback Colby Suits (yes that’s his real name) threw for 334 yards and two passing touchdowns. If Louisiana-Monroe can put together another competitive performance on Saturday, then they could easily shock college football by winning outright as +600 moneyline underdogs.
Arkansas at Auburn
Pick: Arkansas Razorbacks Moneyline +520
Last week the Arkansas Razorbacks shocked college football by beating Mississippi State outright as 17-point underdogs. This week Arkansas faces off against the Auburn Tigers as 14-point underdogs. In the highly competitive SEC West, Arkansas over the last few years has been the doormat of the division. While the rest of the division is rounded out by perennial bowl teams in LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State, Auburn, and Ole Miss, Arkansas is the only team in that division that has been easy to beat. This season Arkansas has a new head coach and they might be better than they have been recently. That is why I think that there is excellent value in backing them as +520 moneyline underdogs.
The reason why Arkansas state beat Mississippi State last week was because of their defense. In the previous week Mississippi State torched the defending champion LSU Tigers in a 44-34 upset. Mississippi State was able to score 44 points against LSU using the prolific air raid offense of new head coach Mike Leach. After that upset of LSU, it was expected that Mississippi State would do the same to Arkansas. However, this did not happen as they only scored 14 points when Arkansas beat Mississippi State 21-14. If Arkansas can replicate that defensive performance against the relatively mediocre Auburn offense, then they might be able to win outright as +520 moneyline underdogs.