Jason Radowitz gives his 5 best bets for College Basketballβs Opening night, November 5th.
CBB: 0-0 ATS
North Florida Osprey @ (6) Florida Gators 7pm EST on SECNΒ
Opening night is an interesting night. We donβt know much. Freshman could become stars and players can underachieve. But one thing Iβve always learned betting college basketball during the first week is that you should always bet the big teams against the spread. The belief is that in the first week of the season, these favorites are undervalued against bad mid-major teams.
North Florida (16-17 last season) will welcome back four starters and eight of their top nine scorers. They were second in the Atlantic Sun and scored 75.3 points per game. This North Florida team has a ton of experience. Theyβve competed against 18 Power 5 conference teams in the last three years and will welcome more competition. North Florida played Florida last season and lost by the score of 98-66.
North Florida is coming off seven wins in a row before losing to Liberty in the ASun tournament. They got on a roll late in the season against conference play. Not against power 5 conference teams β¦ or a top 6 team in Florida.
Florida (20-16 last season) are expecting big things from Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is said to be the difference-maker for the Gators this season after transferring into the program from the ACC. Florida has six more newcomers (all freshman) and these freshmen are expected to be high impact players, including Tre Mann and Scottie Lewis. Andrew Nembhard will return for his sophomore season after he started 36 games for the Gators producing 194 assists in those 36 games. Noah Locke nailed 81 threes last season.
Florida is 8-0 all-time against UNF after their whooping last season however Florida will only have 212 games played in a Florida uniform combined, which is the fewest in the last decade for Florida. The line sits at -19.5 for Florida. And just like I said, it seems too low. This will be a 30 point blow out. Take Florida on the spread.
(3) Kansas Jayhawks vs (4) Duke Blue Devils 7:00PM EST on ESPN
This is the first of two HUGE games at Madison Square Garden to start the College Basketball season. A 3 vs 4 and a 1 vs 2 later.
Kansas (26-10 last season) worked around some big injuries last season including senior center Udoka Azubuike who only played nine games last season due to a torn ligament in his right hand. That didnβt stop him from being voted as the Big 12 Preseason Player of the Year by the leagueβs coaches. Kansas added Isaiah Moss from Iowa as a transfer to add some three point shooting, where they lacked last season. Kansas also landed a Michigan commit in Jalen Wilson after John Beilein left Michigan to coach in the NBA.
Duke will be losing a ton of talent this season but donβt worry, they have some new guys thatβll be just fine. Sophomore, Tre Jones elected to stay in college for another season and lead Duke this season as point guard. The rest of the team will be freshmen, including top recruit Vernon Carey Jr. who was the 6th best recruit in the nation. Theyβll also have five-star recruit and shooting specialist, Matthew Hurt, who was Minnesotaβs Mr. Basketball after averaging 36.8 points, 12.4 rebounds, and five assists per game in his senior season in high school.
Duke is 7-5 all-time against Kansas but has lost the last three matchups. Coach K and the Blue Devils have won 19 straight season openers and are 37-2 in these games under Coach K. Iβm riding with Duke with the PICK.
Eastern Illinois Panthers @ (13) Texas Tech Red Raiders 8pm EST
Weβre back at it again. They undervalue favorites in the first week of the season. This game is another prime example.
Eastern Illinois (14-18 last season) finished 6th in the OVC with a conference record of 7-11. Eastern Illinois will return their top scorer last season in Josiah Wallace who averaged 15.5 points per game as well as 4 rebounds and 3 assists per game. Theyβll also return JaQualis Matlock who was their leading rebounder with just 4.8 a game.
Texas Tech (31-7 last season) is coming in fresh off a huge NCAA tournament run, falling just short in the finale. They went 14-4 in Big 12 conference play. Although the Red Raiders will lose Jarrett Culver to the NBA, theyβll bring back Davide Moretti who averaged 11.5 points per game, along with 2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
Eastern Illinois scored 71.8 points per game while allowing 76.8 per game. Texas Tech is known for their defense where they allowed offenses to score just 59.6 points per game (third best in the country). Texas Tech, even without Culver, will be very good defensively and score a ton offensively against Eastern Illinois. Theyβll cover the spread at 23 points.
St. Maryβs Gaels vs Wisconsin Badgers 9pm EST on ESPNU
This game doesnβt match-up with the two games at the Garden, but itβs going to be a good one.
St. Maryβs Gaels (22-12 last season) had an exciting season beating Gonzaga for the first time in a while but then the lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Hereβs the good news; theyβll be returning four starters from that team. Wisconsin (23-11 last season) also lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They also lost their star forward/center Ethan Happ to graduation.
St. Maryβs four starters are led by Jordan Ford who averaged 21.1 points per game shooting an incredible 41.2 percent from downtown. St. Maryβs is said to have a lot of depth, talent and experience. They could be in line to play Gonzaga tough again this season. But right now, itβs about Wisconsin.
Wisconsin will miss out on Ethan Happ, of course. Theyβll have to rely on DβMtrick Trice, Brad Daison, Brevin Pritzl, and Ohio State Transfer Micah Potter (who isnβt eligible until the first 10 games are over.
There are so many unknowns with this Wisconsin team and a lot of established players at St. Maryβs. Iβll gladly take St. Maryβs -3 here.
(1) Michigan State Spartans vs (2) Kentucky Wildcats 9:30pm EST on ESPN
What a week weβre going to have. Michigan State vs Kentucky (one vs two) and LSU vs Alabama (in college football one vs two). This is the second time in only the second time in NCAA history that an opener has featured the 1 vs the 2.
Michigan State will return ultimately one of the best athletes in college basketball in Cassius Winston, who decided to stay one last season with Michigan State in hopes of an NCAA Championship. He averaged 18.8 points, 7.5 assists and won the Big Ten Player of the Year last season. Theyβll also bring back Xavier Tillman who became a legitimate feature in the second half of the season.
Michigan Stateβs Cassius Winston will have his hands full against Kentuckyβs sophomore Ashton Hagans, who led the team in points, assists, and steals last season. Hagans will be joined by Tyrese Maxey, a McDonaldβs All-American who has already been named to the All-SEC Preseason Second Teamβ¦ he hasnβt seen a minute of action yet in a game.
Michigan State has problems come when they have to face pressure defenses. Kentucky will more than likely be in the face of Winston and try to force some turnovers. Winston is without Joshua Langford has his backcourt mate due to a foot injury, so Michigan State will have to rely on their freshman Rocket Watts.
Kentucky has some interesting experience on this yearβs team. Theyβll have two freshmen, two sophomores, and a graduate transfer in Nate Sestina, who transferred out of Bucknell. He had 15.8 points and 8.5 rebounds per game in the Patriot League. This is going to be different competition for Sestina but heβs already averaged 12 points and 9 rebounds in Kentuckyβs two exhibition games, while shooting 64.7 percent from the field. Iβm not worried about how he adapts to playing against better talent.
This one will be close all the way. Iβll take Kentucky, who I believe have more talent on the team this season (at least to start.) Theyβll get +3.