Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees ALDS Game 5 Preview, Prediction & Best Bets for 18 October 2022

Our MLB expert previews Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees in ALDS Game 5 and provides his best bets.

Rob’s MLB Record: 5-2 (71.4%)

The Guardians and Yankees square off in a deciding Game 5 of the American League Divisional Series Monday, with the winner advancing to face the Houston Astros in the American League Championship Series starting Wednesday.

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The Yankees will host Monday’s game as AL East champions and No. 2 seed, while the Guardians are the AL Central champions and No. 3 seed.

The teams split the first four games, each team winning one at home and one on the road.

Here’s a look at Monday’s game:

Date & TimeMonday, October 17, 7:05 P.M. Eastern
MoneylineCleveland Guardians (+128) at New York Yankees (-152)
RunlineGuardians +1.5 (-156)/Yankees -1.5 (+130)
TotalOver 7.5 (-114)/Under 7.5 (-106)
WhereYankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Weather63 degrees, 30% chance of rain

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Civale (5-6, 4.92 ERA) vs. Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA)

Cleveland Guardians Preview

Aaron Civale hasn’t appeared yet this postseason, but he was a much better pitcher in the second half of 2022 (3.35 ERA) than the start of the year (6.17 ERA). Civale hasn’t gone past the sixth inning since July, so it’s likely the Guardians will need some innings from their bullpen, which has allowed only two earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched this series.

The Yankees lit up Civale in his two starts against them this season (10 earned runs over nine innings pitched.)

The Guardians would prefer a low-scoring contest, but their offense starts with left fielder and leadoff hitter Steven Kwan, who’s lived on base so far in this series with seven hits and a walk in four games. Third baseman José Ramirez powers the offense with 29 home runs and a .869 OPS in 2022.

New York Yankees Preview

Jameson Taillon went 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA in 2022, but unlike Civale was a considerably better pitcher in the first half of the season. He also surrendered Cleveland’s game-winning runs in game 2 of this series pitching in relief.

Taillon faced Cleveland back in April of the regular season, pitching five innings and earning the win.

Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader is helping bring punch to the back end of the lineup, with home run in three of the four games this series. The Bronx Bombers’ bullpen should be fresh enough to pitch several innings if the need arises on Monday.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees ALDS Game 5 Prediction

It’s hard to shake the feeling that Cleveland’s best opportunity was Sunday night, as they couldn’t complete a third straight comeback and fell to New York, 4-2. However, home-field advantage hasn’t meant much in this series or the playoffs in general, with both wild-card teams advancing in the National League and the Astros clinching on the road in the American League.

New York’s advantage on paper can’t be denied, and it’s appropriately reflected in the line. It’s more juice than we’d prefer to lay, but Civale’s numbers against the Yankees are too poor to ignore.

Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees Best Bet for October 17

Pick: New York Yankees (-150 at DraftKings)

ALDS Game 5 Betting Prediction
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