A preview, predictions and expert pick from Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals on Saturday, July 29, 2023 in the MLB.
| Date & Time | Saturday, July 29, 7:15 P.M. Eastern |
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs (-115) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-105) |
| Runline | Cubs -1.5 (+145)/Cardinals +1.5 (-170) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-115)/Under 9.5 (-105) |
| Where | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Weather | Retractable Roof Stadium |
Cubs vs. Cardinals: Preview and Picks
The defining rivalry of the NL Central, Cubs vs. Cardinals, takes place this weekend in St. Louis.
The two storied franchises would probably rather forget 2023 to this point, But the Cubs have been resurgent of late and this weekend’s series could determine the direction they take for next Tuesday’s trade deadline.
Chicago Cubs Preview
Who’s got the best offense in baseball since the All-Star break?
Well, you see the team’s name at the top of this section, so the answer’s easy. But not many people would guess the Cubs, averaging 7.5 runs per game in the past two weeks.
OF Cody Bellinger, topic of numerous trade rumors heading into the weekend, is pacing Chicago with six home runs and 17 RBI in his last 15 games going into Friday’s action. Bellinger’s OPS is approaching 1.100 in that span, making his baseball’s hottest hitter not named Shohei Ohtani.
Nico Hoerner, SS Dansby Swanson, and LF Ian Happ are enjoying strong Julys as well, and the Cubs entered the series only six games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the lead in the NL Central.
Saturday’s starter will be Jameson Taillon, who turned last year’s performance into a four-year deal on the North Side of Chicago. Early returns said that was a mistake, but Taillon’s numbers are up over the past several starts. In his past three starts, Taillon has a 5:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and has allowed just four earned runs over 19.1 innings.
St. Louis Cardinals Preview
3B Nolan Arenado is one of the few bright spots of the St. Louis lineup, with 22 home runs, 77 RBI and a .857 OPS.
Naturally, speculation is he may not be a Cardinals by next week with the Redbirds looking to build for the future via trade.
2B Nolan Gorman and 1B Paul Goldschmidt are the other thumpers in this lineup, and it seems Saturday would be a good day for them to get hot at the plate.
Why? Taking the mound is 41-year-old Adam Wainwright, in his last season in MLB and knocking on the door of 200 career wins. Wainwright’s been a Cardinals stalwart for going on 20 years, but we aren’t betting on legacies here.
This season, Wainwright is only 3-4 with an ERA of 7.31. He’s struck out only 31 batters over 56.2 innings, surrendered 10 home runs and his WHIP is approaching 2.00. The Cubs peppered Wainwright to the tune of seven runs (all earned) in three innings back on June 24.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Prediction 07/29/23
Taillon doesn’t fill me with confidence, but the game’s hottest offense against the struggling Wainwright is too good an opportunity to pass up.
You can do a number of things here – take the Cubs to win, bet the over – but I choose to focus on the Wainwright portion of the game. Most books (BetMGM & FanDuel in particular) have lines for the first five innings, and this is where I’d focus for Saturday’s game.
FanDuel Sports SPECIAL OFFER
If they’ll allow you to parlay these two wagers, go for it. But both can be played as singles as well.
Predictions Summary:
- Chicago Cubs over St. Louis Cardinals First 5 Innings (-140)
- Chicago Cubs Over 2.5 Runs First 5 Innings (-150)
Parlay both outcomes for a +186 odds bet. Click below to place the wager!
Pitcher Fades
If it seems like I’m picking on Wainwright with the above play… well, maybe a little.
But by this time in the season, certain trends develop with MLB starting pitchers, and a few of them are in play on Saturday.
Jordan Lyles, Kansas City Royals:
Even for a team as poor as the Royals, it’s pretty amazing that the squad’s record is 1-18 in the 19 games Lyles has started this season!
The righthander isn’t innocent however – he’s sporting a 1-12 record with a 6.19 ERA.
Lyles and the Royals take on Minnesota Saturday, and the Twins are currently -180 favorites.
Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals:
Many diehard baseball bettors derisively celebrate “Patrick Corbin Day,” an acknowledgement that the lefthander was – by far – the least profitable pitcher in MLB over the past three seasons.
This year, however, it’s not as simple as betting against the Nationals, who are often heavy underdogs. Instead, bettors have noticed a trend in which not only is Corbin taking a beating on the hill (6-11, 5.01 ERA) but the Nationals are putting up runs behind him!
In Corbin’s last two starts (both Washington losses) a total of 36 runs were scored. On Saturday, he faces a similarly struggling Carlos Carrasco of the New York Mets. The Mets are -205 favorites – a huge price tag for such a disappointing squad – and the over/under is set at 9 runs.
