How To Bet On College Football
Football is one of the most popular sports in America, and to this day, it’s popularity around the globe is increasing with each passing day. More than 15 million people watch college football live on television networks.
In college football, each team plays one game a week (usually on Saturday). Bookmakers offer a range of betting types and markets to choose from. Because plenty of games are being played on Saturday, there are many ways of finding value whether it’s game of the week match-up or a game between two lesser known teams. College football ranks as America’s second most popular sport in 2018 with 47 million fans attending games along with 163 million unique fans watching on television.
On November 6, 1869, Rutgers University faced Princeton University in the first-ever game of intercollegiate football game that played more like soccer than today’s “football.” Unlike other American sports there’s no second tier to the NFL, thus making College Football the next level down. What’s even more astonishing is that in some areas in America, College Football is more popular and even more preferred than the NFL (mostly in the south).
While the NFL is looking to expand into other countries, college football can’t necessarily play games in other countries. Therefore, college football teams are able to recruit prospects around the country to play on their university in America via scholarship (or walk-on).
College Football season begins in late August and concludes in early January when the National Champion is crowned during an exciting four-team playoff. The selection committee determines the top four teams in the country to play in the College Football Playoff. Teams that are deserving but missed the cut are given an opportunity to play a “Bowl Game.” This is also considered the playoffs and allows teams to compete for a bowl championship even though they weren’t able to be included with the top four teams.
When betting on College Football it’s important to look into factors such as a team’s experience, rivalries, offense efficiency and defense efficiency, the weather, injuries and many more factors.
Betting On College Football- Spread Betting
Spread betting is the most popular form of basketball betting, and it is also known as betting on the line. Whatever you choose to call it, the concept is the same, it is handicap betting. When you go to your favorite sportsbook, you will see CFB games listed as such:
Clemson Tigers +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5.
This is a simple line. All this means is that if you are betting on the Crimson Tide, they must win by at least 7 points. If they win by 6 or less, you lose. On the contrary, if you bet on the Tigers to cover the spread at +6.5, they cannot lose by more than 7 points. If they lose by 6 or less, or win the game outright, congratulations on winning your bet.
Betting On College Football Underdogs
Everybody loves an underdog story. What’s even better than an average underdog story is betting on an underdog that comes out on top. But betting on the favorite is often considered the safer bet, so the average bettor prefers that. This can mean that the market is often distorted in favor of the underdogs, particularly ones with large handicaps. This is evidenced by looking at a couple of simple statistics to demonstrate this when it comes to betting on football.
In 2018, during the College Football season, the team playing on the road as underdogs covered the spread line over 52.1% of the time. The most profitable road underdogs on the spread line are when the road underdog receives over 28 points. Road underdogs were 65.4 % when they were 28+ point underdogs on the road. Road underdogs that are given 1-2.5 points are second most profitable, winning 55.8% of the time.
On the contrary, as a home underdog in 2018, teams given 1-2.5 points won 75% of the time. In 2018, betting an underdog that’s given 1-2.5 points was pretty profitable to say the least.
Now, only betting on these underdogs will not get you anywhere near rich, but it goes to show you that there is value in betting on teams that are undervalued. It is important to keep this in mind when assessing your bets. When a team is looked at as having no chance of winning, they have a solid chance to cover the spread. Or when the spread is very close, a close game is expected, therefore, adding points in your favor could be very valuable. When betting on spreads, your underdog does not have to win the game outright, they only have to cover the spread.
Betting On College Football’s Popular Teams
Just as the average bettor likes to bet on the favorites, popular teams also reel in more bets than usual. For example, because of their prestiged team history and reputation recently, almost everybody has heard of the Alabama Crimson Tide. They have a storied history, and a list of college stars who have played for them over the years that is almost endless. Just because they are popular, does not mean they are a smart team to bet on. We can look at some simple statistics to back this up.
We already know that if a team is heavily favored, they may not be the best bet. We also now know that just because a team is popular, it doesn’t mean it’s a smart bet.
Alabama was undefeated until they lost the final game of the year in the National Championship to Clemson in 2018. But while they won every game but one, they were only 8-7 against the spread. If you bet one unit for every Alabama game against the spread, you would only be up one unit after 15 games. Teams like Utah State, Houston, and Duke have all profitied better Against the Spread (ATS) compared to Alabama in the last 10 years. To put this into perspective, in the last 10 years, Alabama has won the National Championship five times or 50 % of the time.
However, Alabama has went 76-63-1 (54.7%) ATS in the last ten seasons, which is still profitable. The lesson is: don’t just pick the best team in college football against the spread thinking it’s an easy win. There are so many games and favorites to choose from that check off more boxes on a given Saturday.
On the other side of the country, Washington State went 11-2 ATS last season. They also went 11-2 on the year. They covered the spread 84.6% on the year, which was the most profitable in college football this season. The problem? Washington State plays in the west, during a time where people on the East are already out with friends or sleeping. It can really pay to find situations to bet against these teams, and these trends are something to keep an eye on when doing your research.
Betting On College Football Totals
Betting on the total points scored is a very popular bet in football. Put simply, the total is the defined number that both teams combine to score in a game. Depending on the league or tournament, this number will vary significantly. In the NFL, for example, the games and playing style are much different than College Football. In the NFL, teams average a combined 46.6 points per game. In College Football, they’re beginning to average over 60 points a game combined.
With scoring on the rise in the College Football, the points totals will often land in the 40-62 range, with the average often coming in at around 45. We will get deeper into this later, but totals vary in conference play. In the Big 12, we’re more likely to see a high scoring total compared to an SEC match-up. Fans love watching high-scoring games, and the talent level is increasing each year. The defense continues to get penalized for small errors and the offense continues to roll without being penalized. Quite frankly, the rules have been altered in favor of the offenses, and defense is becoming harder to play each year due to the “targeting” penalty. The result is higher scoring games, and you must keep this in mind when betting on totals.
How can you succeed in betting on point totals? One of the key factors is to not pay attention to a team’s recent performance. For example, non-conference game going into a conference game are hard to bet on since conference games have a ton of factors that come into play. Simply thinking, if Michigan State has a record of 0-3 and Michigan is 3-0, due to the rivalry, Michigan isn’t the quick and easy favorite. Rivaliries, home field, conference games, and of course weather all matter when looking at point totals.
The better strategy is to look at how often a team goes over or under a given points total. For example, Oklahoma went 11-3 when bettors selected the over. They were a Big 12 team with a heisman candidate in Kyler Murray as their quarterback. Seeing that Oklahoma went over 78.6% of the time, helps when deciding whether to take the over for their game. If you can identify a trend either way, you may want to consider making that bet.
Lastly, consider the situation. There are plenty of injuries to star players throughout the season. Sometimes freshman quarterbacks take-over a struggling team in the middle of the season. This is something to keep in mind, as a sharp bettor always considers the circumstances of the game being played. There could be a ton of value on a team when starting with a different quarterback. It could also mean worse things as well. Study how these stars players would do against a defense. Sometimes it’s better to stay away from betting point totals when there are injuries. Although, some might say to take the under when a back-up is set to make a start at quarterback.
How To Bet On College Football
College Football Odds Explained
College Football odds in the United States are often defined in its most popular form, the MoneyLine.
As with any sport, understanding the betting odds will be crucial in turning in a profit with betting on College Football. If you do not understand what you are betting on, you will never become successful at placing bets. The more you understand, the more successful you will be.
College Football Betting Explained
In this section we will discuss how to bet on College Football and the diverse range of College Football odds available at virtually every bookmaker in the industry. As you can assume, there are many different ways to bet on the College Football. From the more traditional College Football bet types to the more exotic, bookmakers everywhere provide you with a deep menu of markets to exploit through the College Football season. Here we will look at the most popular College Football odds.
College Football Handicap Betting Explained
The College Football handicap is the most traditional and popular form of betting on basketball games. This is commonly referred to as the point spread, but can also be expressed as the handicap or betting line for a game.
So what is a College Football point spread?
A College Football point spread is the final margin a bookmaker estimates for a game that it lists. This is regarded as a 50/50 bet, as the bookmakers give this bet a 50% chance of happening on either side of the spread. When you are betting on a College Football point spread, you are betting on which side of the margin is the winning bet.
How To Bet On College Football Points Spreads
Let’s take a look at an example. You’re looking through your favorite sportsbook, and you come across a game you like.
Louisiana State Tigers (-6.5) @ -110 vs Auburn Tigers (+6.5) @ -110
What do those numbers mean?
In this example, the Louisiana Tigers are 6.5 point favorites. This means that in order for them to cover the spread, they must win the game by 7 points or more. On the contrary, the Auburn Tigers cannot lose by 7 or more. If they win, or lose by less than 7, they cover the spread.
The -110 next to each team is the odds given for placing the bet. On straight point spreads, oddsmakers always list teams as -110. That is because they are essentially considered 50/50 bets, and the -110 is near even odds. In this scenario, an $11 bet will return $21, or a $10 profit.
Determining If Your College Football Spread Bet Is A Winner
How do you know if your College Football spread bet is a winner? It’s a simple. In the above scenario, let’s just say the final score is Louisiana State Tigers 28, Auburn Tigers 17.
If you had been on the favorite, in this case Louisiana State Tigers(-6.5), you subtract 6.5 points from their final score. In this example, the adjusted final score would be Louisiana State 21.5, Auburn 17. In this game, your Louisiana State bet at (-6.5) would be a winner.
However, if you had bet on the underdog, in this case the Auburn Tigers(+6.5), you add 6.5 points to their final score. In this game, the adjusted final score would be Louisiana State 28, Auburn 23.5. As you can see, even with Auburn getting 6.5 points on the spread, they still come out as a losing bet.
When a team wins a point spread bet, that is considered “covering the spread”.
Always Take The Best College Football Odds
When you are going through the different sportsbooks, you will often see odds being slightly different on the same game. Most bookmakers list their spread beats as EVEN or -110 odds. We suggest doing some research and finding out which book has the EVEN odds, as this will pay slightly better per win.
What is a good strike rate on College Football spread betting? If you were to randomly bet on College Football spread bets throughout the course of the season, you will most likely have a hit percentage of around 50%. This is again of course because bookmakers give these spreads about a 50% chance of hitting, making them a 50/50 bet.
If you can hit on around 54% of your College Football spread bets, you will generate fantastic profits. This sounds easy, all you have to do is be 4% better than the average. That being said, it is difficult to achieve, which is why it is important to do your research on the teams and follow the tips we indicated in the guide above. If you can achieve this 54% strike rate, you will be raking in the profits all season long.
How To Bet College Football Over Under Totals
Each year, scoring is increasing in College Football. The rules are changing, and players are getting more talented with each passing day. Because of this, the games are incredibly entertaining to watch, and bettors love playing bets on the over/under totals.
What is a College Fotball Over Under bet?
While point spread bets can be a bit confusing to someone just starting out, over under totals are much easier to understand. In this case, the oddsmakers will set a total number of points they expect each team to combine for, with a 50% chance for the total to land on either side of the number.
So for example, we’ll look at a game below:
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
O 52.5 (-110)
U 52.5 (-110)
In this particular example, the oddsmakers expect an average of 52.5 points to be scored, and you must decide whether the total points scored by each team will combine to be over or under that total. Again, this is considered a 50/50 bet, with a 50% of either result happening.
In this example, if we bet the over 52.5, we need Rutgers and Nebraska to combine for 53 or more points. If the total was Rutgers 31, Nebraska 24, the combined total points was 55, meaning the winning bet was the over. If the score was Rutgers 17, Nebraska 14, the total points scored would equal 31, meaning the bet lost by 21.5 points.
Many bookmakers will also offer individual team totals. For example, they would set the Scarlet Knights total at 28, meaning if you place this bet, you only concern yourself with what the Scarlet Knights do, and the other team’s points scored are meaningless to you. This adds another wrinkle for the average bettor to play around and play some more creative bets.
How To Bet On College Football Moneylines
Finally, let’s take a look at NBA moneylines. A moneyline bet is a simple bet placed on which team you think will win. No spreads, no point totals, just which team wins. Simple right?
Let’s take a look at an example below.
USC Trojans ML (+195)
Washington Huskies ML (-200)
This is a simple bet. The Warriors are favorites with (-200) odds to win, while the Raptors are the underdogs, with (+195) odds to win straight up. All you have to do is pick the winner. Obviously, the favorite will win you less money than picking an outright underdog winner. In this example, betting $10 on the favorite Huskies will win you $15, or a $5 profit. Conversely, betting $10 on the underdog Trojans will win you $29.50, or a $19.50 profit. As you can see, picking the correct underdogs is key to making a profit when it comes to betting on College Football games.
College Football moneyline bets are very popular due to the extreme simplicity of them. It’s simply which team you think is going to win. However, you must pay attention to the odds given to each team to be successful in the long run.
How To Bet On College Football Outrights And Futures
Another popular betting strategy in the NBA is betting on futures and outright markets. This typically involves betting on who will win:
- College Football Championship Winner
- Each Conference Winner
- The Heisman Award (Most Valuable Player in College Football (Often a QB)
At the time of publishing, we can see that the Clemson Tigers are currently the favorites to win the NBA Championship, with odds of +170, followed by the Alabama Crimson Tide at +275.
Every College Football futures and outright market works the same way. You place a bet on the team or player that you think will win a particular championship (whether that’s the conference championship (or FBS Championship) or the Heisman award. If that happens, your bet is a winner.
These types of bets are very popular because it keeps every Saturday of the season interesting. If you have a bet for a team to win their division, you will most likely be keeping track of their wins and losses throughout the season. The same can be said for betting on a player to win a particular award. If you have Player X to win the Heisman Award, you will be following and tracking their stats to see how they compare to the competition.
Other Popular College Football Odds
Due to the growing popularity of College Football, and the explosion of sports betting, bookmakers now offer a wide variety of College Football odds to bet on. The most popular of these additional markets are:
Alternative Point Spreads
- Winning margin
- First quarter winner
- First half winner
- Second half winner
- Winner of each quarter
Alternative Player Prop Bets
- Individual player touchdowns
- Individual player yards
- Individual player carries
- Individual player receptions
- Individual player completions
College Football Value Bets
As with any sport, being successful in betting comes down to finding value bets. What is a value bet?
To put it simply, let’s consider a coin toss. You know that there is a 50% chance for the coin to land either way. Let’s say that someone gives you +120 odds that the coin will land on tails. This is considered a value bet because the tails value is currently undervalued, as it should be EVEN odds, not + odds, because it is a 50% chance.
Let’s consider a College Football game. Let’s say the Georgia Bulldogs are playing the Florida Gators. We strongly believe given our analysis that the Gators should have a 60% chance to win. We are being given EVEN odds for the Gators to win, meaning they have an implied probability of 50% to win or lose. Is this a value bet? Yes it is, because we believe the Gators have a 60% chance to win while their implied probability in their odds is only 50%.
Read More About Value Betting
Understanding the concept of value and value betting is key to profitable College Football betting. To learn more about value betting, please read our guide to identifying value bets.
How To Bet On College Football And Win
As you can see, a significant part of your success on betting on College Football will come down to your ability to identify value bets. This is true everywhere you look, no matter the market you are betting on. If you can consistently find value across the various markets and options to bet on, you will be profitable more often than not. Learning how to find value bets is a crucial skill to learn.
How To Bet On College Football And Always Win
I’m sorry to get you excited, but there is no cut and dry way to always win your bets in College Football. It is shocking to see how many people think that there is a system or strategy that can guarantee their success. There is simply nothing around that can guarantee you will cover 80% of your spread bets or 70% of your over under picks. There is no foolproof way to bet on College Football or any sport for that matter. So do not be fooled by the so-called “experts” who claim their system is guaranteed, and they will win for you everytime. They are lying to you, and you must be careful. The real key is making smart bets and finding value bets.
While it would be amazing if we had a surefire, foolproof system to give you, that does not exist. The key to becoming a consistently profitable College Football bettor requires you to do your research, and it takes time and dedication to find the key trends to identify.
How To Bet On College Football: A 10-Step Guide
In this section, we will walk you through a 10-step guide that will increase your overall profitability when you are betting on NBA games. We will show you step by step to bring you from an amateur bettor to someone who starts betting like a true industry expert.
- Bet Only When There Is Value
- Be Prepared To Learn
- Start By Betting The College Football Teams You Are Familiar With (There are 130 teams!!!)
- Bet The College Football Markets You Know
- Apply Sound Money Management
- Keep A Record Of Your College Football Betting
- Assess College Football Team Performance Accurately
- Mark The College Football Schedule
- Follow College Football Tipsters
- Have Multiple Bookmaker Accounts
Bet Only When There Is Value
We know by know, you are probably sick of reading that you must only bet when there is value. But we must say it again- betting on College Football successfully all comes down to your ability to identify valuable odds. If you bet on the College Football with no regard to the odds being given for a specific situation, you will find yourself losing money. When you find value, it becomes much easier to become consistently profitable.
Just like any other sport, identifying value bets in College Football is not easy. It takes a lot of time and experience to understand what exactly makes a bet a value bet, but after time, it will become second nature. Eventually, you will be able to look at the game’s for the following day and immediately be able to pick out a couple games that look like they could be value bets at first glance.
We discussed College Football value betting earlier in this betting guide. If you did not read it, please check it out before progressing.
Be Prepared To Learn
Taking their time learning the ropes of betting is difficult for many in the beginning. Many people begin betting on a sport because they enjoy watching it, and they feel like have a lot of knowledge on it. You understand the game, and you know the players and the teams that are successful. Put simply, you consider yourself something of an expert.
But let’s be clear. There is a difference in possessing a deep understanding of College Football and it’s players and a deep understanding of the NBA betting markets. It goes without saying that possessing previous knowledge on the NBA will help you in some ways, but it is not all it takes to be successful. To be profitable on College Football betting, you must have an in depth understanding of the markets you will be betting on. Understanding College Football, it’s players, it’s stats, and it’s conference trends, is a completely different ballgame than understanding how to become a profitable College Football bettor. It is important not to confuse these two different extremes.
Gain Experience And Deeper Understanding Of NBA Betting Markets
When you are an inexperienced College Football bettor, you have a significant task in front of you. That is to take your prior knowledge of College Football, and adapt it to knowledge of College Football betting markets. This will take time and effort, but once you get the hang of it, you will find that you will ingrain a knowledge of College Football markets, and how to find and take advantage of value bets throughout the course of a season.
Think of it like this. It is generally pretty easy to identify a game that you think will be high-scoring. Here’s the kicker, the oddsmaker probably thinks the same thing, and your job is to determine whether or not the game will go over or under the indicated line. Additionally, it is easy to predict whether a particular successful College Football team playing at home will win against a mediocre opponent. The hard part is deciding whether or not it is worth it based on the odds being given on said game.
The point is simple. If you want to be a profitable College Football bettor, you must be willing to be patient and ready to learn.
Or check out how the best College Football tipsters do it here and take some tips from them.
Start By Betting The College Football Teams You Are Familiar With
If you are just beginning to bet on College Football games, it is beneficial to begin betting on teams that you are already interested in. Sure it would be great to jump right in and bet on the league as a whole, but the best way to gain experience and record your results is with teams you are already familiar with.
Let’s say you are a fan of a team. You probably already follow this team closely, know their strengths and weaknesses, their roster, and everything about them. You know they approach games, and the playing style that suits them. You also probably have intimate knowledge of the teams in their conference due to the fact that you are keeping track of their results as well to see how your team stacks up. Betting on these games offers a great opportunity for you to begin. I understand you may want to jump in head first to the league as a whole, but by starting slow with teams you are familiar with will give you the needed experience to become an advanced bettor.
Bet The College Football Markets You Know
As we have already discussed, the most popular College Football markets are:
- Point spreads (handicaps, lines)
- Moneylines (straight up, head to head)
- Point Totals (Over/Unders)
These are the most popular. As you now know, there are countless other markets you can explore and choose to bet on. It is best to begin with these markets to familiarize yourself with College Football betting as a whole as they are easy to understand. Further, exploring these simple markets is a good way to gain experience and will allow you to exploit the more nuanced and exotic markets in the seasons to come.
In fact, it is common for a seasoned, profitable bettor to only focus on one of these markets. They choose their specialty, and profit consistently from it. If you find you have a skill at picking point totals, stick with that. If you are having success with moneylines, exploit those advantages. Specialization can lead to a lot of profits in College Football betting. Find the markets you are in tune with, and profit from them.
Apply Sound Money Management
You already know the key to long term College Football betting is finding value bets. But another key component of College Football betting is deciding your money management, and staking strategy. What does this all mean? It means that you must decide how to manage your bankroll, and how much you should be placing on each bet.
Managing your bankroll and how much to place on each bet is serious. If you are not taking either seriously, or are just not keeping track of your strategy, then you are most likely going to be losing money in the long-term. If you are wagering random amounts with no consideration to the value and situation of the bet, you cannot be surprised when each month finishes up and you have lost money again.
Further, your betting bankroll should only be as much as you can afford to lose. Again, never bet more than you can afford to lose. This is extremely important, and people who do not follow this tend to find themselves in trouble. Even if you have an incredible eye for identifying value bets, if you’re not exploiting that value with responsible staking strategy, you will end up losing money. Identifying value is crucial, but is only half the battle. Identifying how much to place on each game is also important.
Keep A Record Of Your College Football Betting
If you’re still reading this, it is safe to assume you want to become a successful and profitable College Football bettor. Every serious College Football bettor needs to keep an accurate log of their bets. And we do not mean keeping track of only some of your bets, or your winnings. We mean detailed, accurate records of each bet. If you do not keep a log of your betting, you are more likely to lose and will not be able to learn from your mistakes.
Your record of NBA betting should include these notes:
- Bet Type (market)
- Bet Details
- Your Stake
- Your Odds
- Your Profits/Losses
Keeping records provides you with the ability to track your results, and review your betting history. This review process is a crucial step to eventually becoming a profitable College Football bettor, and is something you must take seriously to reach that level. When reviewing your bets, you can see which markets you are successful in, and which you tend to struggle in. More importantly, you can see the bets in which using poor judgement, or making a rash decision ended up costing you money. To put it simply, an accurate betting record will help you learn from your mistakes, and increase your self awareness when betting on College Football games.
Access College Football Team Performance Accurately
The task of identifying profitable betting value comes down to one skill, properly assessing a team’s performance and potential. If you can become an expert at this skill, you will be a successful long-term College Football bettor.
While that sounds simple and easy to accomplish, being able to consistently perform that task is no easy feat. Think about it like this. Bookmakers have the most capable analytical minds at their disposal to give them the ability to create for the most part, the most accurate College Football odds.
The good news is that although they are skilled, College Football oddsmakers do not get it right every time. Think about the average College Football season, there are usually about a dozen teams each season that rank in the AP Poll Top 25 teams that drop out of the Top 25 when the final rankings are revealed. A new dozen (or 12 teams) will find their way into the Top 25. At the time of this writing, oddsmakers gave the LSU Tigers a projected win total of 7.5. The Tigers had 10 wins. Kentucky was projected for 5.5 wins on the year. They accumulated 10 wins as well. That’s basically double than what the oddsmakers projected! That goes to show you that although their system is solid, there are holes to be found. That is why it is crucial for you to put the work in and find the value bets, because they are there.
Being able to assess team performance and potential are extremely important. How can you learn to do this accurately? There are a number of angles to consider.
Home Vs Away Form
This is often a hot topic of debate across a number of sports. Many experts and analysts believe that a number of teams possess a distinct home-field advantage, or in the College Football’s case, home-field. Others argue that the playing field and environment does not affect a specific team’s performance more than it would another, and that the home-field advantage is consistent for each team across College Football.
Home-field advantage in a given College Football game is worth roughly 2.5 points. What does this mean? It means that if two teams have the same exact talent level, the team playing at home will be 2.5 points better because of the home-field advantage. When we think of home vs away swings, this amounts to about a 5 point adjustment in play.
Let’s look at an example. The Louisville Cardinals are playing the Miami Hurricanes. On a neutral field, the Cardinals are considered a 7 point better team. If the Cardinals are playing at home, we will add the 2.5 point advantage, making them a 9.5 point favorite on their home field. On the contrary, if the game was being played in Miami, the the Hurricanes would gain 2.5 points in value, making the Cardinals only 4.5 point favorites on the road, as opposed to 9.5 point favorites at home.
Why does home-field give teams an advantage? There are a number of explanations to look at. The most prominent of these theories is that home crowd noise heavily interferes with referee decision making in a very fundamental way. Referees are human (trust me), and are just as easily influenced by a crowd of people as you are. It’s just psychology. When watching a big game, you’ve no doubt noticed the home team getting less flags and some “hometown calls”. I was unable to pull up any statistics that prove this, but it’s more than likely. The ref is much more likely to let a penalty go unnoticed in a big spot if the call is going against the team playing at home. Just imagine the boos he or she would receive! As much as you don’t like it, it happens, and it is part of the game, and goes a long way in explaining the home-field advantage.
Injuries And Roster Subtractions
If you are a seasoned follower of the College Football, the beginning of the season can be the most profitable time for you. This is because possessing a detailed understanding of current College Football rosters and off season recruits and transfers will give you a good idea on which teams will be overrated or undervalued to start the season.
For example, some teams elect to recruit Junior College transfers or graduate transfers from other division 1 schools. On the contrary, some teams elect to start their freshman quarterback with no experience. The media, fans, and pundits will go crazy, and talk about how big of an addition each player is to the team. They’ll also talk about the players that transfer out and might look at a certain team as weak in an area or as a whole. Expectations will rise, and everybody will expect big things from the new student athletes as well as the returning student athletes who are supposed to improve their stats from the previous season. Understanding what helps win games over the course of the season, and knowing the importance of depth on a college football roster can help you identify value on these teams early in the College Football season. If a team has many returning seniors, you can find value in the beginning of the season with that team.
Western Michigan Broncos will return 85 percent of their team this upcoming season (as of July 17). They won seven games last season. Expectations will be higher this season. You can look to exploit their returning players and potentially find value in Western Michigan especially during the beginning of the season.
Additionally, the ability to accurately assess the impact that an injury on a team’s outlook can help experienced bettors exploit College Football odds. This is similarly true when a team has an injury to a key player who does not receive a lot of fanfare. Meanwhile, injuries to key players can often be overestimated. Never forget the importance of a team having valuable back-up players ready to step up in a star’s absence. Always consider the players who will be stepping into bigger roles when an injury takes place.
In College Football, the best talent doesn’t always start. Experience plays a large role when it comes to starting in College Football. Just because a starter gets injured, doesn’t mean that a younger prospect can’t out-play the more experienced student athlete.
Many fans sit and wonder how a team of lesser talent can cause trouble for a much more talented team. This is especially true in College Football, where matchups and play style play a key role in the outcome. This is why there are so many fans of college football. Anything can happen. Last season #13 Virginia Tech lost to Old Dominion as a 28-point underdog. Old Dominion had home-field advantage and it showed throughout. This can also be true in divisional matchups, where teams match up with each other often and get a good feel of how to exploit the other team’s weaknesses throughout the years.
While some teams may struggle in certain areas, they often possess a strength that can adequately counter the more talented teams weakness. Possessing a detailed understanding of college football and each teams roster will provide you with many value opportunities, and ways to exploit said teams weaknesses whether that’s offense, defense or special teams. Again, teams that are big underdogs are often great value plays, and finding out which teams possess the ability to make life difficult will help you become a profitable College Football bettor. These teams may not win the game, but they may easily cover the spread, leading to you winning.
Develop A College Football Betting System Or Betting Model
Developing a successful betting model to find value in College Football games is well worth the effort to create. Since the start of the 2015 College Football season, teams receiving less than 45% of spread tickets in regular season games are 4007-4025-145 against the spread for a win rate of 49.9%. If you take a deeper look into things, games that received 2.5 times the day’s average number of bets bring the strategy of fading the public up to 202-173-13 (53.9%). That’s greater than the 52.38% ATS win rate needed to break even when betting on spread (with the line a -110.). Lastly, when the home team has under 45% of tickets placed on them, they’re 130-97-8 (57.3%) ATS, which would profit 26.36 units and a return of investment of 11.2%.
While one College Football betting system or model may only consider point differential, there are a number of other models that take a number of factors into account, while looking into a broad range of numbers and analytics. Speaking broadly, the majority of College Football betting models take into account the following:
- Points For/Against
- Yards For/Against
- Completion Percentage
- Receptions For/Against
- Individual talent on the field
Whichever statistical College Football models you choose to employ, the premise remains the same- to accurately assess the potential of a given team taking into account their matchups and circumstances. This determines if there is any value to exploit in the particular matchup.
Mark The College Football Schedule
The College Football schedule is a short 12 games (with a potential playoff game or two during the holidays in December/January). College Football is mostly played on Saturday, giving you a lot of games to wager on on Saturday’s. There are ample opportunities to spot value opportunities when picking games. There’s usually over 50 games on Saturday to look at. There’s a lot of value to be won. This is referred to as “situational analysis”.
Situational analysis, put simply, is determining how a team is going to perform in a certain circumstance. For example:
- How does a particular team perform after playing on the road?
- How does a team perform after back-to-back trips on the road?
- How do teams perform in their first game on the road after a long stretch of home games?
There are many situations to consider, and these are only tipping the iceberg. Because of this, before the season begins it is paramount to look through the schedule and find certain situations that you may be able to find value when it comes. Point out situations that are irregular for each team, and where their play may be affected by things they don’t control like the weather. Look for league wide trends such as historical data as well as trends for each team.
For example, let’s say the Navy Midshipmen are 0-3 against the spread on the road. While this trend can be seen as completely random, it is certainly something to keep in mind when you see Navy has another road game against a better team, like Notre Dame.
Conducting situational analysis such as the ones described above can go a long way into becoming a profitable College Football bettor across the course of the season.
Follow College Football Tipsters
Following College Football Tipsters is another easy way to generate profits betting on College Football games. Finding a group of stable and consistent NBA tipsters will help you build your betting bankroll quickly and with relatively little work.
I know what you’re thinking, “great, so just follow some tipsters, and I’ll make money right?” Unfortunately, it is not that easy. Finding reliable tipsters who you can trust is easier said than done. By just searching Google, you will find a list of hundreds of “College Football tipsters” who claim that they have a betting system that never loses, or they’ll make you boatloads of money. Please, do yourself a favor, and never pay for College Football betting tips. These tips will often require subscription fees, which are expensive in their own right, and will often end with you losing money because these picks are unreliable.
The great news is that there are a number of reliable and profitable College Football tipsters in the americanbettingexpert community. These guys post their tips throughout the season, and the best part is that they are verified and free. You can find each tipster’s record posted so you can do your research and find which guy you want to follow throughout the College Football season.
Have Multiple Bookmaker Accounts For College Football Betting
It may seem convenient to only have one bookmaker for all of your College Football betting. The problem is that by doing this, you are going to lose money in the long term and it can easily be the difference between being profitable and negative.
We recommend all College Football bettors have at least three bookmaker accounts. Having at least three different accounts will afford you the flexibility to skim through these and find the best odds for each game on any College Football market.
Yes, it may seem like taking a team at (-125) as opposed to (-130) amounts to little difference, but over the course of a couple College Football seasons, this difference can amount to thousands. Sounds crazy, but it’s true. So please, have at least three College Football bookmaker accounts to make sure you are capitalizing on the best odds each time.
How To Bet On College Football Playoffs
College Football Playoff Format
The College Football playoff format is very different in comparison to the NFL or any professional sports league.
The playoffs consist of 40-team competitive bowls with division 1 teams that have to at least have six wins.
College Football Playoff Bowls:
- Cotton Bowl (Semifinal)
- Orange Bowl (Semifinal)
- Fiesta Bowl
- Sugar Bowl
- Peach Bowl
- Rose Bowl
- CFP National Championship
- Sugar (SEC vs. Big 12 when Sugar is not a semifinal game)
- Rose (Pac 12 vs. Big Ten when Rose is not a semifinal game)
- Orange (ACC vs. highest ranked SEC/Big Ten non-champion or Notre Dame when Orange is not a semifinal game)
Bowl games will be placed based on best fit for the Conference and its membership. Remember, to be bowl eligible you need to have at least six wins. Not every six-win team will make a bowl game.
Each bowl is sponsored by a large company that funds the bowl and awards a trophy to the winning team. Only the top four teams in college football get the chance to play for the FBS National Championship.
The FBS National Championship holds two semi-finals match-ups between the 1 and 4 seed and the 2 and 3 seed. This is determined by the committee. Of course, after the two games are finished, the two winning teams compete for the National Championship. Clemson defeated Alabama in an upset last season.
College Football Playoffs Advantage
Each bowl game is played at a neutral site. There is no home-field advantage, however, there are teams who have the luxuary of playing closer to home that will bring a larger crowd to the stadium for their bowl game. Fanbases like Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Michigan travel well no matter where their team is playing. Keep this in mind during the playoffs.
College Football Playoffs Odds
Just like the regular season, there are a number of different College Football odds to bet on. There are some extremely unique match-ups between different teams and conferences. Let’s look at the most popular College Football playoff markets.
Individual Game Betting
This is just betting on a single College Football bowl game. Just as the regular season, the most popular individual game bets are:
- Point spread
- Point totals
How To Bet On College Football Playoffs
What are the best College Football playoff strategies? Is betting on the College Football playoffs different than betting on the regular season? Here we discuss the best ways to ensure your College Football playoff betting is profitable.
How To Bet On College Football Playoffs And Win
- Isolate Each Teams Strengths And Weaknesses (Offense, Defense, Special Teams)
- Determine Who Can Win A War Of Attrition
- Determine Which Team Is Best Equipped To Win The Fourth Quarter
- Monitor The Evolving Impact Power House Offenses
There is an old saying, defense wins championships. This is not true in college football. In the last five years, the BCS Championship has seen an average of 65 points scored per game.
Let’s start with a pair of factors, factors that are so intrinsically related for purposes of betting the College Football and it’s bowl season that we should talk about them together right off the bat.
Isolate Each Team’s Weakness
This is crucial to College Football betting because any glaring weakness could be the death of a team. Remember, there’s only one game to be played. One mistake or error could decide the game. The coaching staff won’t have enough time to make adjustments after half-time to and devise a strategy to take advantage of the weakness. Champions find your biggest weakness and expose it over and over until they win the game.
Favorites that have a distinct matchup advantage will often take the lead and never look back.
On the opposite end, an underdog can often “luck” its way into a bowl win. To do this, the underdog must, you guessed it, pinpoint their opponents weakness and take advantage of it repeatedly whether it’s defensively or offensively.
The market is slow to adjust to these advantages because the odds are often based and skewed by the regular season results of the teams, rather than specific matchup tendencies. The match-ups are set up so that teams from different conferences with different playing styles play against each other for some exciting college football.
If you want to beat the market, and be profitable betting on College Football Bowl games, you must evaluate the individual chess pieces for each team and the big picture strength and weakness. Remember, student athletes who are projected to be picked in the first round might sit out of the bowl game to make sure they don’t get injured. They’d rather the money instead of taking a risk in a game that doesn’t mean much to them. You should look at:
- Offensive Efficiency
- Defensive Efficiency
- Special Teams
- The Rosters
Determine which teams run efficient offenses, and which ones rely on the long ball (or long shot) and try to exploit incredible individual efforts. Also look at which teams are smacked with the most flags or penalties per game.
The best teams usually adjust their gameplan against their opponent in the second half. You can always look to “live bet” a game when entering the second half if you see a trend.
Determine Who Can Win A War Of Attrition
The short schedule of the College Football regular season creates a war of attrition of sorts. It is a test of survival for some teams every single week. This adds an extra element when looking to become a profitable bettor. This is really key in conference playoff series where the relative talent levels of each team basically cancel each other out.
In recent season, you will be watching a game, and the sideline reporter will give a live look at the head coach telling his players to “keep fighting”, and “not give up”. The game is a chess match, but an exhausting chess match. These saying may sound cliche but they’re crucially important, especially in any game.
As a bettor, it is often best to not try and guess which team has more “guts” or “grit” in any game. However, one way to pinpoint these attributes is by looking at each team’s relative depth, which teams have better health, which teams have experience, and which teams have their star players in the starting line-up.
Some teams that miss the FBS College Football Playoff by a small margin will always have players sitting out of the Bowl Game to start working towards the NFL Draft. In short, they are ready to throw in the towel and this actually affects the team and their depth.
Determine Which Team Is Best Equipped To Win A Game’s Last Two Minutes
Here we go, it’s crunchtime, who will pull away. Many exciting College Football games can be decided in the final two minutes. Handicappers must be well equipped to determine each teams strengths and weaknesses in these late game moments.
If your team has a quality quarterback, the two-minute drill could be the perfect finish to the game for your team. However, if your team needs points with a lower tier quarterback, you might be out of luck. Picking a team with a quality quarterback is a great strategy in a game the betting lines say will be close.
If you decide to pick a strong defense against a poor quarterback, that would be another valuable strategy when looking at close finishes in college football. Of course, luck is still a factor, but strategy is as well.
See what you can learn from each teams regular season strategy in late season games and how it will transfer to tense moments in conference and bowl games.
And, by watching tight finishes in the early season, you can see which players and coaches are more equipped to handle these tight situations. You need to enter the college football playoffs knowing that there are going to be many late game situations that impact your betting.