Week 10
For week 10 of college football, we have many games being played on Wednesday and Thursday nights. On Wednesday, all MAC teams are making their season debuts. There are many great MAC bets to place, but my favorite is a Bet Boost on FoxBet on Toledo scoring four or more rushing touchdowns at +300 odds. On Thursday two Mountain West Conference games are being played. Both games present great betting opportunities, but my favorite bet is on Wyoming to cover a -3.5 spread against Colorado State.
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Thursday, November 5th
Wyoming at Colorado State
Pick: Wyoming -3.5 +102
On Thursday night, Colorado State hosts Wyoming. This is a game where it is important to shop for the best line as most books have -110 odds on Wyoming’s -3.5 spread, but Fanduel has +102 odds. After last week, I am surprised that Wyoming is only favored by 3.5 points. Against Hawaii, Wyoming was a three-point underdog. Despite being underdogs, Wyoming beat Hawaii 31-7. Colorado State in contrast to Wyoming was a 2.5 point favorite against Fresno State, yet they lost 17-38. I believe both games last week were an accurate reflection on both team’s abilities and that is why I am betting that Wyoming wins by more than 3.5 points.
Against Fresno, CSU struggled to pass the ball. The Rams used two quarterbacks and only completed 51.5% of their passes for 223 passing yards and only one passing touchdown. I believe that Colorado State is going to have trouble against a Wyoming pass defense that did well last week against Hawaii. The Hawaii quarterback Chevan Cordeiro had a 42.3% competition percentage against Wyoming and passed for only 110 yards. I believe that Wyoming with their passing defense and their rushing attack that scored four rushing touchdowns last week will easily beat Colorado State. That is why I am backing them to cover as 3.5 point favorites.
Wednesday, November 4th
Bowling Green at Toledo
Pick: Toledo to record four or more rushing touchdowns (+300)
On paper the MAC season opener between Bowling Green and Toledo appears to be an uninteresting game. Out of all the FBS conferences, the MAC is arguably the worst. In the MAC, the worst team consistently has been Bowling Green. Since 2017, BGSU has an 8-28 record. Toledo is a sharp contrast to Bowling Green as they have a 24-15 record in that time. As a result, Toledo is unsurprisingly a 22.5 point favorite in Wednesday night’s game. While there might value in backing the Toledo spread, I believe there is more value in betting on Toledo to record four or more rushing touchdowns at +300 odds on FoxBet.
BGSU had one of the worst rushing defenses in all of college football last year. The Bowling Green defense gave up 5.8 yards per rushing attempt which was the 4th worst in the FBS. More importantly for betting on rushing touchdowns, BGSU gave up an average of three rushing touchdowns per game which was the 2nd worst in the FBS. This is good for a Toledo team that averaged 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game and 5.2 yards per rushing attempt. It may be a stretch for Toledo to score four or more rushing touchdowns, but the +300 odds are too good to pass up.
Week 10 Weeknight College Football Bet Slip.
$50 Toledo to record four or more rushing td’s Pays $200
$50 Wyoming -3.5 Pays $101
Week 9
For week 9 of college football, we have only two games on Thursday night. The first game at 7:30 PM is a “Fun Belt” game between South Alabama and Georgia Southern. Both teams have 3-2 records, and as a result Georgia Southern is a narrow four point favorite. The second game at 10PM is a Mountain West game between Colorado State and Fresno State. Both teams did poorly last year and as a result Colorado State is only favored by two points. In both games the spread has been accurately set, but the point totals are off. That is why I am betting that under 52.5 points will be scored In the South Alabama/Georgia Southern Game and that over 57.5 points will be scored in the Colorado State/Fresno State game.
Thursday, October 29th
South Alabama at Georgia Southern
Pick 1: Under 52.5 Points
South Alabama and Georgia Southern have a lot in common. Both teams play in the Sun Belt Conference, and both teams’ offenses primarily run the football. South Alabama runs the football in 55.2% of their offensive plays which is 38th out of 101 FBS teams that have played so far. More importantly Georgia Southern ranks 4th in their rushing play percentage as an astounding 72.7% of their offensive plays are rushing plays. The amount of rushing plays has a large role in whether a point total goes over or under because if the play ends in bounds, the play clock keeps ticking after the play. For a passing play, if the pass is incomplete the clock stops. It is for that reason that I like to target point total unders for teams that primarily run the ball.
While both teams like to run the ball, both teams are not particularly great at stopping the run or bad at it either. Both teams give up an average of 4.1 yards per rushing attempt which is below the league average. However, I am not concerned about both teams rushing defenses as Georgia Southern has a great red zone defense. The Georgia Southern red zone defense gives up the 8th lowest percentage of touchdowns and field goals in the FBS with a scoring percentage of only 57.1%. I think too much clock will be killed in Thursday night’s game for over 52.5 points to be scored.
Colorado State at Fresno State
Pick 2: Over 57.5 Points
Thursday’s late-night matchup between Colorado State and Fresno State is unlike most week 9 college football matchups. Colorado State has yet to play this season, while Fresno State has only played one game. Both teams finished the 2019 season with 4-8 records, and both teams have new head coaches. The first season for a new head coach of a losing college football program is normally ugly. What I expect for Thursday night’s game is utter chaos and that is why I am betting that over 57.5 points will be scored.
In Fresno State’s lone game of the season last week, they hosted Hawaii as 2.5 point favorites. In that game Hawaii who normally is one of the worst road teams in football, beat Fresno State 34-19. In that game Hawaii rushed for 323 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns off of an average of 6.1 rushing yards per rush. I think it is safe to say that Fresno State’s defense will replicate this woeful performance again this week. The reason why I am not backing Colorado State, is because their defense is also awful. Last season Colorado State gave up 4.9 yards per rushing attempt which was 102nd in the FBS. I think both teams will score in a close game and that is why I am betting that over 57.5 points will be scored.
Week 9 Weeknight College Football Bet Slip.
$50 South Alabama/Georgia Southern Under 52.5 Points Pays $95.50
$50 Colorado State/Fresno State Over 57.5 Points Pays $95.50
Week 8
This week there is only one weekday college football game. While Friday will have four college football games, sadly we have only one football game during the week. The one game this week is another “Fun Belt” game this time between two of the best teams Arkansas State and Appalachian State. My two best bets for the game are for Arkansas State to cover spread as 14-point underdogs, and for Arkansas state to cover a 13.5 point spread and for over 67.5 points to be scored.
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Thursday, October 22nd
Arkansas State at Appalachian State
Pick 1: Arkansas State +14 (-110)
Pick 2: Arkansas State +13.5 & Over 67.5 Points Scored (+265)
In a nationally televised game on Thursday night, the 2-1 Appalachian State Mountaineers host the 3-2 Arkansas State Red Wolves. Over the last few years, both App State and Arkansas State have fought for the Sun Belt Conference championship. Both teams are consistently the best in the conference, and this season they have more competition. Neither Arkansas State nor App State can afford to lose Thursday night’s game if they are to win the conference. App State is obviously the better team in Thursday night’s matchup, but Arkansas State does not deserve to be a 14-point underdog. For Arkansas State to not cover the spread or push, they would have to lose by more than two touchdowns. I think this game is going to be close and that is why I am betting on the Arkansas State spread.
App State because of COVID related cancellations has not played a game in a month. There is a very real chance that they have not been practicing much either. Their style of play offensively this year is to run the ball on most possessions especially when they are ahead. What App State is going to look to do against a potent Arkansas State offense is run down the clock whenever they have the ball. This will limit the amount of opportunities that Arkansas State must score, but it will also limit App State’s chances of blowing Arkansas State out. Last week Arkansas State gave up 269 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns off 6.6 rushing yards per attempt. When or lose, Arkansas State can be expected to give up many rushing yards against App State.
While App State is expected to run the football, Arkansas State is going to primarily throw the football. Arkansas State uses a two-quarterback system where they use a different quarterback for each possession. It is hard for defenses to prepare for one quarterback, let alone two. Last week the combined Arkansas State passing attack threw for 551 passing yards and eight passing touchdowns. If Arkansas State wins or covers the spread, it is going to be a high scoring game where they are successful passing the football. Additionally, I expect win or lose App State to do well running the football. That is why in addition to betting on the Arkansas State spread, I am also betting on a single-game parlay of Arkansas State covering the spread and the 67.5-point total going over.
Week 8 Weeknight College Football Bet Slip.
$50 Arkansas State +14 Spread Pays $95.45
$50 Arkansas State +13.5 Spread and Over 67.5 Points Scored Pays +265
Week 7
Weekday college football action returns in Week 7 with “Fun Belt” action on ESPN. As a way of having better tv ratings for the Sun Belt Conference starting in October of every year the Sun Belt Conference plays many of their games on Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. This week there are two Fun Belt games on Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday night, the 21st ranked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. On Thursday night, the Arkansas State Red Wolves host the Georgia State Panthers.
Thursday, October 15th
Georgia State at Arkansas State
Pick: Georgia State Panthers Moneyline +145
In a nationally televised game on Thursday night, the 2-2 Arkansas State Red Wolves host the 1-1 Georgia State Panthers. In a typical season, Arkansas State should easily beat Georgia State. Arkansas State almost always finishes the season near the top of the conference standings, while Georgia State usually finishes close to the bottom. That is most likely why Arkansas State is currently favored by 3.5 points against Georgia State. Despite past history, I think Georgia State has many edges in this matchup against Arkansas State. That is why I am backing Georgia State to win outright as +145 moneyline underdogs.
On October 3rd, Arkansas State was a three-point favorite against Coastal Carolina. In that game Coastal Carolina which is a team that runs a similar offense to Georgia State beat Arkansas State 52-23. For Thursday night’s game, Georgia State is going to primarily run the ball. Last week against East Carolina, 61.1% of Georgia State’s offensive plays were running plays. Against Louisiana-Lafayette, 57.1% of Georgia State’s offensive plays were running plays. Georgia State is likely to run the football, and Arkansas State has had trouble against the run this season. Against Coastal Carolina, Coastal Carolina ran the ball in 63.8% of their possessions. I think Georgia State is going to do the same thing and that is why I am betting on them to win as +145 moneyline underdogs.
Wednesday, October 14th
Coastal Carolina at (#21) Louisiana-Lafayette
Pick: Neither Team to Score 30 or More Points +250 (FoxBet Bet Boost)
For Wednesday’s nationally televised ESPN game, the 21st ranked Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers. Currently Louisiana-Lafayette are 7.5 point favorites, and I believe that the line is accurately set. While Louisiana-Lafayette is likely to try and run up the score as a ranked team trying to get a good bowl game, Coastal Carolina is not a cupcake of a team. Currently Coastal Carolina like Louisiana-Lafayette is undefeated with a 3-0 record. This includes a 38-23 over Kansas, and a 52-23 win last week over perennial Sun Belt conference contender Arkansas State. While betting on Coastal Carolina to win as +230 moneyline underdogs is a tempting bet to make, I think Louisiana-Lafayette is likely to win. The better bet in my opinion to take advantage of the FoxBet bet boost on neither team scoring 30 or more points at +250 odds.
Not much has to go right for both defenses to hold each other to fewer than 30 points. The team point total for Coastal Carolina is set at only 24.5 points, while the team point total for Louisiana-Lafayette is set at 34 points. For Louisiana-Lafayette to be held to fewer than 30 points, the Coastal Carolina defense must limit them to one less touchdown than they are projected to give up. Coastal Carolina has yet to give up more than 23 points in a game, while the Louisiana-Lafayette defense has been impressive as well. That is why I am betting that neither team scores 30 or more points at +250 odds.
Week 7 Weeknight College Football Bet Slip
$50 Coastal Carolina/Louisiana-Lafayette Neither Team to Score 30 or More Points Pays $175
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