As a player prop professor, I typically bet on Baseball and Basketball player props. Recently, sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and Sugarhouse (BetRivers) have been posting player props for major conference college football games. For this Saturday’s college football slate, I am betting on Bo Nix (AUB) having over 224.5 passing yards and Sean Clifford (PSU) having Under 224.5 passing yards.
Saturday, October 24th
Auburn at Ole Miss: 12:00 PM SEC Network
Pick: Bo Nix (AUB) Over 224.5 Passing Yards -110
Last week one of my two player props of the week was for Auburn quarterback Bo Nix to have over 189.5 passing yards. Despite Bo Nix not being one of the best SEC quarterbacks, he managed to easily eclipse his passing yards total throwing for 272 passing yards against South Carolina. Even though Nix’s passing yards total is 35 passing yards higher than last week, the over is still a good bet. That is why I am betting that Nix has over 224.5 passing yards at -110 odds.
The reason why Nix has an inconsistent game log is because he tends to perform poorly against good passing defenses and well against bad passing defenses. Against the strong passing defenses of Arkansas and Georgia, Nix threw for fewer than 200 yards. However, last week against the porous South Carolina secondary, Nix had an outstanding performance.
What is most important to me is that Nix has attempted between 27 and 47 passing attempts in all four of his starts this season. Last week Nix had 47 passing attempts against South Carolina. If Nix throws for at least 30 passing attempts against Ole Miss, then he will easily eclipse his passing yards total. So far this season the Ole Miss defense has been torched by every team they have played. I have a hard time imagining Nix being contained by Ole Miss in Saturday’s game.
(#8) Penn State at Indiana: 3:30 PM FS1
Pick: Sean Clifford (PSU) Under 224.5 Passing Yards -110
Penn State is surprisingly favored by only six points against Indiana in their opening day game this Saturday. Whether or not you are betting on Penn State, it is smart to bet against Sean Clifford being heavily involved in the Penn State offense on Saturday. Last season in Clifford’s final seven games, he only threw for over 189 yards once. One of those games was against Indiana when he threw for only 179 passing yards. I believe that Indiana will hold Sean Clifford to under 200 passing yards again, and that is why I am betting that Sean Clifford has under 224.5 passing yards.
Part of the reason why Clifford did worse towards the end of the season than the beginning is because of his level of competition. His first five games were against non-conference cupcakes and two Big Ten bottom dwellers. Typically, what you can expect from Clifford is for him to attempt only 20-25 passes per game and complete only 55% of his attempts. It is not reasonable to expect Clifford to have at least 225 passing yards off only 11-14 completions. That is one of the best reasons to bet against Clifford in Saturday afternoon’s game.
Week 8 College Football Player Prop Bet Slip.
$50 Sean Clifford (PSU) Under 224.5 Passing Yards Pays $95.50
$50 Bo Nix (AUB) Over 224.5 Passing Yards Pays $95.50
As a player prop professor, I typically bet on Baseball and Basketball player props. Recently, sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings have been posting player props for major conference college football games. For this Saturday’s college football slate, I am betting on Trevor Lawrence (CLEM) having under 307.5 passing yards and Bo Nix (AUB) having over 199.5 passing yards.
Saturday, October 17th
Clemson (#1) at Georgia Tech: 12:00 PM ABC
Pick: Trevor Lawrence (CLEM) Under 307.5 Passing Yards -112
On Saturday afternoon, the Georgia Tech Yellowjackets host the Clemson Tigers. Clemson is currently favored by 27 points, and they are expected to easily win. On paper Trevor Lawrence should have an easy game. He is one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and Georgia Tech has yet to face a quarterback of his caliber this season. However, Lawrence having over 307.5 passing yards is not likely to happen. That is why I am betting on Lawrence having under 307.5 passing yards at -112 odds.
As the likely number one overall pick in the upcoming NFL draft, Trevor Lawrence certainly can throw for at least 308 passing yards. Even though Lawrence is capable of having a big game, I do not think that will be throwing for the whole game. That is because Clemson as a heavy favorite is likely to play conservatively if they jump to a large lead. Against Citadel, Clemson won 49-0 and Lawrence threw for only 168 yards. Last week against Miami, Lawrence threw for only 292 passing yards and Clemson won 42-17. With Georgia Tech unlikely to be competitive, I think that Lawrence will take a back seat once Clemson jumps to a lead. That is why I am betting on Lawrence having under 307.5 passing yards.
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Auburn (#15) at South Carolina: 12:00 PM ESPN
Pick: Bo Nix (AUB) Over 189.5 Passing Yards -112
Bo Nix is not one of the best SEC quarterbacks, but he is relatively good. Last year as a true freshman Nix won the starting quarterback job and since then has been a relatively decent quarterback. The reason why his passing yard total is set so low at 189.5 yards is because of how poorly he has done this season. In his last start Nix threw for only 187 yards against Arkansas. In the week before Nix threw for only 177 passing yards against Georgia. While Nix had lackluster performances against both teams, I think he does better this Saturday against South Carolina. That is why I am betting that Nix has over 189.5 passing yards at -112 odds.
While Nix has not done well over his last two starts, that is because he faced strong pass defenses. What is most important to me is that Nix has attempted between 27 and 40 passing attempts in his three starts this season. Nix is fortunate that he is facing South Carolina on Saturday. South Carolina allowed 268 passing yards against Kyle Trask and Florida, and 259 passing yards against Jarrett Guarantano and Tennessee. I think Nix will take advantage of a weaker South Carolina defense and do much better than he did against Arkansas and Georgia. That is why I am betting that Nix has over 189.5 passing yards at -112 odds.