ATP Madrid Masters 2019 Futures Betting: Rafael Nadal favorite but value on Dominic Thiem in Spain

The Madrid Masters is the next Masters 1000 tournament on the ATP Tour and it’s another chance to fade the fading Rafael Nadal.

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Rafael Nadal is known as the King of Clay but this season the Spaniard’s crown is slipping. Nadal was beaten in the final of the Monte Carlo Masters by Fabio Fognini and then in the semi-finals of the Barcelona Open by Dominic Thiem.

The ATP Tour’s next Masters 1000 event is another home event for Nadal, the Madrid Masters in Spain’s capital. The Mallorcan is the +110 favorite to win the event, but it’s once again a chance for Futures bettors to take on the greatest clay courter of all time.

Nadal was described by his uncle, and coach, Tony as “an injured man who plays tennis” and that looks to be an accurate claim at the moment. The power and panache that saw the Spaniard win 11 French Open titles has gone and he looks vulnerable.

Nadal has never enjoyed Madrid too much either, winning that title only five times, compared to his 11 at Roland Garros and 11 in Monte Carlo. The courts play a little quicker than Paris and Monaco and some of the tours other big shot makers have proven successful there in recent years. Roger Federer has won the event three times, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray twice, and last year Alexander Zverev triumphed.

Djokovic is the second favorite at the Caja Magica, at odds of +300 and Zverev is +600 but both have been a little shaky this season. Djokovic hasn’t gone beyond the quarter-finals in any Masters 1000 event this season, while Zverev hasn’t gone beyond the fourth round. Neither makes any appeal, even if the draw does end up kind to either.

Instead, look to Dominic Thiem, who is currently available at +425 with most sportsbooks. The Austrian won the Barcelona Open after beating Nadal last week but, more importantly, he has form claims outside of the last fortnight.

The Austrian has been steadily improving year-on-year on the ATP Tour, going from French Open semi-finalist in 2016 to Masters 1000 finalist in 2017 to French Open Finalist in 2018 and now Masters 1000 winner (at Indian Wells) in 2019. He also has course form, having reached the final of the Madrid Masters in each of the last two years.

It seems like the stage is now set for Thiem to go one better this year, and claim the Madrid title. If he does, he should also be considered as favorite for the French Open, and Futures bettors are advised to take the +550 odds on Thiem to win Roland Garros now, before they plummet.

Madrid Masters 2019 Best Bet

PICK: Dominic Thiem to win Madrid Masters @ +425 Odds at SugarHouse


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