Rob Senior previews Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies on October 14, 2022, and provide our expert betting prediction and picks for the matchup.
Rob’s MLB Picks Record: 4-2
The Braves and Phillies meet Friday in Game 3 of a five-game National League Divisional Series. The winner will face the winner of the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers in next week’s National League Championship Series.
The Phillies get their first chance to host a playoff game since 2011, while the Braves are on the road for the first time since September 28.
Atlanta’s 3-0 win on Wednesday knotted the series at a game apiece, effectively creating a best-of-three starting Friday.
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Here’s a look at Friday’s game:
- Date & Time: Friday, October 12, 4:35 P.M. Eastern
- Moneyline: Atlanta Braves (+108) at Philadelphia Phillies (-124)
- Runline: Braves +1.5 (-196)/Phillies -1.5 (+162)
- Total: Over 7 (-114)/Under 7 (-108)
- Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Weather: 68 degrees, less than 5% chance of rain
Starting Pitchers: Atlanta (To Be Announced) vs. Aaron Nola (11-13, 3.25 ERA)
Atlanta Braves Preview
The Braves have some options for pitching in game 3. The option with the highest upside is Spencer Strider (11-5, 2.67 ERA, 202 Ks in only 131 innings), but he hasn’t thrown since straining an oblique on September 18.
Veteran Charlie Morton (9-6, 4.34 ERA) and Jake Odorizzi (6-6 4.40 ERA) are other possibilities for the NL East champs.
Matt Olson has reached base in six out of nine plate appearances this series, but the Braves need at least one more bat to heat up as the series shifts to Philly.
Philadelphia Phillies Preview
The Phillies’ Aaron Nola forms a strong 1-2 punch with Zack Wheeler, the hard-luck loser of Wednesday night’s contest. Nola’s been up and down in 2022, but he knows the focus is on him Friday as the Phillies face pitching uncertainty for Game 4 just as Atlanta does Friday.
The Braves are familiar with Nola, who is 3-2 with a 3.17 ERA against the Braves this season.
The middle of the Phils’ lineup (JT Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos) has carried the club since the start of the postseason offensively, as the top two hitters in the order, Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins, are a combined 1-for-32 in four games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves Prediction October 14, 2022
It’s hard to recommend a play with the pitching uncertainty for Atlanta. This game looks like a better opportunity to place some live wagers once you see who’s playing and for how long.
There’s pressure on Nola to go deep with Philly poised for a ‘bullpen game’ Saturday, meaning Atlanta’s bats should get 2-3 looks a piece at him. If it’s Strider, he likely won’t pitch deep, and Morton and Odorizzi will have short leashes. So we’ll make our play on the total.