Hello everyone, I hope you all had a great 4th of July. I’m back with another best bets article and it’s time to make back all that money you just spent on those family barbecues. Currently my MLB record is 27-13.
Today is host to a huge 13-game slate providing plenty of options for us to pick our spots. For the first time, we actually have a slate loaded with some great pitchers. Degrom, Kershaw, Grienke, and Verlander will all take the mound today. However, I really only love one of them today. Instead of aces, I will be focusing on tier two pitchers in great spots. #RunLineUpside
Marlins @ Braves 7:10pm
I like this match up today because, in my opinion, it is a great value spot for the Braves. The Braves should be -200 favorites but because Yamamoto is on the mound I don’t think they won’t be. Through four games he has been phenomenal holding a 3-0 record and a 2.35 ERA. Two of his four starts were seven-inning shoutouts against the Cardinals. Since then he has allowed six runs in a two-game series against the Phillies. However, at the moment the Braves lineup is better than both of those teams and they have Teheran (5-6 3.99 ERA) who is finally pitching well again. He is only allowing a .218 batting average to right-handed batters and we all know the Marlins line-up is righty dominant the only good lefty they have is Granderson. Teheran will also have a boost as Marlins just can’t get on base in general, they currently are 26th in the league in team batting average (the Braves are 8th).
Braves Run Line -1
Phillies @ Mets 7:10pm
Absolutely love the Mets here. Degrom (4-7 3.32 ERA) has only been having problems with lefties and the Phillies only have two that concern me which are Harper and Bruce. Degrom is only allowing a .224 batting average to righties along with a whopping 82 strikeouts against them. He also should actually have some run support from his line up with Vince Velaquez (2-5 4.73 ERA) on the mound for the Phillies. He is allowing a .260 batting average to lefties along with an over a .200 ISO to lefties and righties. I can see Pistol Pete and Conforto both going yard in this game (prop bet). Both teams have a terrible bullpen but Dergrom will last longer than Velaquez giving the Mets even more of an edge. The last thing I want to bring up about this game is how much better the Mets are at home compared to away. They are 22-17 at home compared to their 17-31 away record. The Phillies are also struggling on the road with 18-24 record. Everything points toward the Mets taking this one easily.
Mets Run Line -1
Rangers @ Twins 8:10pm
The last game I like today is this one. One of the trends I have noticed along with many others is the Rangers are not nearly as good against lefties compared to righties considering almost all of their power comes from the left side of the plate. Martin Perez (7-3 4.15 ERA) is a great lefty pitcher and he is projected to pitch for the Twins. He is only allowing a .032 ISO to lefties WOW! I’ll take that. He also had 24% K rate against the as well. The Rangers are throwing out Adrian Sampson today (6-5 4.16 ERA). He is allowing a .261 batting average to lefties and a .301 average to righties. The Twins already have a top three batting average in the league I don’t think they will need his help to get on base. They can easily score over six runs in this one. Similar to the Phillies the Rangers are also struggling in the road with an 18-23 record.
Twins Run Line -1.5