2019 ALCS: New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Preview, Picks, and Predictions

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Dae Bets previews the ALCS between the Yankees and Astros. With the Astros Pitching dismantled from the last series with Rays the Yankees could roll.

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros

Date & Time: October 12th, 2019, 8:08 PM (EST)

Location (Game 1): Minute Maid Park, Houston, Texas

Line: Astros: -175 (To win series)

TV Channel: FOX

Astros Pitching advantage?

At first glance, I am very surprised this isn’t a pick-em series. I could see the Astros being a heavy favorite in a world where the Rays didn’t make them give their all in hard-fought five-game series. The main upside that the Astros had was Pitching and that could be gone. In the five-game series against the Rays Gerrit Cole had to pitch twice and was phenomenal, he is the one bright sure thing in this Astros pitching lineup. On a side note, Cole’s streak of 10k games is still alive and I expect it to continue. Verlander tried to pitch on short rest and got destroyed. Doesn’t look like father time will agree with Verlander on short rest so I doubt the Astros try that again. This could even have lingering effects on his arm and overall confidence, only time will tell. As for Zach Greinke… He is TERRIBLE in the postseason. Through 9 series he has a 4.58 ERA. In his last three postseason games started, his ERA was as follows 9.82, 5.40, 14.73… Their so-called pitching advantage was washed by the Rays and Yankees are the perfect team to expose that. In terms of bullpen ERA they were both in the top 10 of the MLB Houston slightly edging out the Yankees.

Astros top 3:

Gerrit Cole 2.50 ERA

Justin Verlander 2.58 ERA

Zack Greinke 3.20 ERA

Yankees top 3:

James Paxton 3.82 ERA

Luis Severino 1.50 ERA (only 12 innings pitched)

Masahiro Tanaka 4.45 ERA

Power Bats vs. Power Bats

These two teams have been atop the batting statistics all season long. The Astros are ranked 1st with a .274 average while the Yankees are 4th holding a .267 batting average. As expected the Yankees to have about 20 more home runs than the Astros courtesy of that small home ballpark. Something that catches my interest is the Yankees do have a 5% higher K rate. One disadvantage to the Yankees is that they do not have home-field advantage. With all the home run hitters that gives them a step up on any competition. If they had home-field advantage this series would not be nearly as hard for me to pick. So far this postseason in terms of batting average the Yankees are being led by Gleyber Torres and Didi Gregorius while the Astros are being led by Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve.

Top batting averages this postseason

Gleyber Torres .417

Didi Gregorius .400

Alex Bregman .353

Jose Altuve .350

Aaron Judge .333

Yuli Gurriel .316

The Bottom Line

I firmly believe that the Astros pitchers will be tired. The Yankees sweep in the ALDS gives them such a huge advantage. Their pitchers are all rested and ready to take on this tough Astros line up lead by Bregman, Altuve, and Springer. The Yankees bats are just unbelievable. Edwin Encarnacion bats 8th sometimes in this bomb squad line and you’re telling the two best pitchers on the Astros are tired while the third can’t seem to find it in the postseason. The Astros do have home field but I don’t see how they win this series. I expect to hear a lot of “and there it goesssssss, seeyaaa!!!” Yankees in six….

Pick – Yankees in 6 +145 @Draftkings

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